Contrarian Corpus
activist letter initial thesis
2025-08-11 · 12 pages

Avantor, Inc. AVTR

Avantor's board has presided over five years of self-inflicted operational and capital-allocation failures; a refreshed board, cost discipline, buybacks and portfolio optimization can deliver 97-134% upside by 2027.

N 4 Narrative
V 3 Visual
C 3 Craft
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Thesis

Engine Capital, owning ~3% of Avantor, argues the life-sciences distributor trades at an all-time-low 10x NTM EBITDA (vs. 17x peer median) because the Board has tolerated sustained underperformance under CEO Michael Stubblefield: LSS has ceded ~4% share to Thermo and Merck, EBITDA margins have fallen to 11.8% vs. Thermo's 16.3%, and $3.8bn spent on Ritter, Masterflex and RIM Bio at 28x EBITDA destroyed over $2.4bn of value. The Board also rebuffed a ~$25-$28 per share approach from Ingersoll Rand in 2023 and at least one other competitor. Engine demands six remedies — stronger execution, cost discipline, buybacks, portfolio review (including potentially selling LSS or NuSil), compensation reform and a board refresh with a new non-executive Chair — implying a $22-$26 standalone share price by 2027 (97-134% upside) or a $17-$19 sale today.

SCQA

Situation

Avantor is a top-three global life-sciences distributor and bioprocessing supplier with strong recurring revenue and defensive consumables exposure, but has badly trailed peers on total shareholder return across every relevant period.

Complication

Over five years, the Board has overseen share losses in LSS, bloated costs, $3.8bn of value-destructive COVID-peak M&A at 28x EBITDA, rebuffed Ingersoll Rand's strategic bid, and tolerated CEO denials of share loss — compressing the multiple to 10x vs. 17x peer median.

Resolution

Refresh the Board (including a new non-executive Chair), instill cost discipline, launch immediate share repurchases, re-examine the portfolio (potentially divest LSS or NuSil), align compensation to return on capital, and consider monetizing the Company at its strategic value.

Reward

Executing the plan yields a standalone share price of $22-$26 by year-end 2027 (97-134% upside), with 2028E EBITDA of $1.41bn at 19% margins on a 12x-14x multiple; a sale today would realize $17-$19 per share.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    Avantor trades at 10x NTM EBITDA vs peer median 17x after years of self-inflicted underperformance

  2. 2

    Board destroyed $2.4bn via 28x-multiple COVID-era M&A and rebuffed Ingersoll Rand's $25-$28 bid

  3. 3

    LSS lost ~4% share as Thermo/Merck grew 3-5x faster, while CEO publicly denied share loss

Primary demands

  • Strengthen execution and commercial discipline at LSS and BPS
  • Instill a culture of cost discipline beyond the announced $400M program
  • Improve capital allocation, including an immediate share repurchase
  • Evaluate the portfolio, including potential sale of LSS or non-core assets (NuSil, Ritter)
  • Align executive compensation to shareholder value creation with return-on-capital metrics
  • Refresh the Board with directors experienced in senior leadership, capital allocation and healthcare distribution; appoint a new non-executive Chair

KPIs cited

NTM EV/EBITDA multiple
Avantor trades at 10.1x vs. peer median of 17.1x
NTM Price/FCF multiple
Avantor at 10.6x vs. peer median of 25.4x
Total shareholder return (5-year)
Avantor -47% vs. life sciences tools peers -1%; -46 points relative
Adjusted EPS trajectory
Fell from $1.41 (2021) to $0.96 guidance midpoint (2025E), a -32% change vs. Investor Day 15% CAGR forecast
LSS relative market share (2018-2024)
AVTR -4%, MRK -1%, TMO +5%; TMO and MRK grew 3-5x faster than AVTR organically
LSS vs. Thermo LPBS EBITDA margins
AVTR LSS 11.8% (2Q25) vs. TMO LPBS 16.3%, ~450bps gap at all-time high
M&A value destruction
$3.8bn paid at 28x EBITDA now worth ~$1.4bn at 10x = over $2.4bn destroyed
Revenue per SKU
Avantor ~$1,150/SKU on 6M SKUs vs. Thermo R&S ~$2,600/SKU on 2.5M SKUs
YTD organic growth vs. peers
AVTR BPS 0.6% vs. peer average 6.8%
CEO bonus vs. performance
Stubblefield received 110% of target bonus in 2024 despite -2% organic revenue and -134bps margins
Revenue per employee
Declined 3.7% from $503K (2019) to $485K (2024)
2028E target financials
Revenue $7.458bn, EBITDA $1.414bn, 19.0% margin, FCF $912M

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Precedents cited

  • Thermo Fisher's LSS playbook of catalog expansion and bundling
  • Ingersoll Rand's 2023 approach to acquire Avantor at ~$25-$28/share
  • VWR's ~$6.5bn acquisition as a standalone distribution benchmark

Notable slides (6)

Notes

Press-release-style activist letter (issued via BusinessWire) with embedded institutional charts. Strong SCQA structure: forecast-vs-reality EPS bars (p.2), peer-gap EV/EBITDA and P/FCF bars (p.3), LSS share-loss reveal (p.4), CEO quote-contradiction box (p.5), ELT-turnover legend chart (p.7), and an illustrative valuation table (p.11). Signed by Arnaud Ajdler (Managing Partner) and Brad Favreau (Partner). Precedent bid from Ingersoll Rand disclosed via District Court filings is a key pressure lever. Six-point remediation framework mirrors classic Engine Capital playbook.