Contrarian Corpus
activist letter follow up
2026-02-18 · 5 pages

Riot Platforms, Inc. RIOT

Riot's 1.7GW of powered Texas sites could generate $1.6bn of AI/HPC EBITDA and drive shares to $23-$53 if management urgently signs more hyperscaler deals like the AMD proof-of-concept.

N 3 Narrative
V 2 Visual
C 2 Craft
Original source ↗

Thesis

Starboard argues Riot Platforms has materially underperformed bitcoin-mining peers that have signed sizable AI/HPC data center deals, despite owning two of the most attractive powered sites in the country: Corsicana (1.0GW) and Rockdale (0.7GW) in ERCOT. The January 2026 AMD deal, at $1.24mm revenue and $1mm EBITDA per Critical-IT MW on just $3.6mm/MW of retrofit capex, validates the intrinsic value of Riot's sites but is only a small proof of concept. If Riot monetizes the remaining 1.4GW in line with recent TeraWulf, Cipher Mining, and Hut 8 precedents with Fluidstack/Google/AWS, AI/HPC alone could generate ~$1.6bn EBITDA. Applying 12.5x-20x multiples (a discount to 22x data-center REITs DLR/EQIX), that implies $23-$53 per share, excluding bitcoin, the Metron engineering business, and $1.2bn of NOLs. Starboard urges urgent execution, or consolidation.

SCQA

Situation

Riot Platforms is a bitcoin miner that a year ago pivoted toward AI/HPC data centers, sitting on 1.7GW of already-powered capacity at Corsicana (outside Dallas) and Rockdale (outside Austin) in ERCOT.

Complication

Riot's shares have materially lagged peers WULF, CORZ, HUT and CIFR that have already signed sizable hyperscaler leases; the January AMD deal was only a 25MW proof of concept in a market where power scarcity is worsening.

Resolution

Sign additional sizable AI/HPC leases on the remaining 1.4GW urgently, prioritizing investment-grade hyperscaler tenants, complete the governance and cost transformation, and, failing that, explore consolidation of the Company.

Reward

Monetizing 1.4GW at peer precedent terms yields ~$1.6bn annual EBITDA; at 12.5x-20x (a discount to ~22x NTM data-center REIT multiples) the AI/HPC build-out alone implies $23-$53 per share.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    Corsicana and Rockdale (1.7GW of already-powered capacity) are better than most peer AI/HPC sites

  2. 2

    Monetizing the remaining 1.4GW at peer precedent terms could generate ~$1.6bn annual EBITDA

  3. 3

    At 12.5x-20x EBITDA, AI/HPC value implies $23-$53 per share, dwarfing current market cap

Primary demands

  • Urgently sign additional sizable AI/HPC data center leases on the remaining 1.4GW of capacity at Corsicana and Rockdale
  • Prioritize investment-grade hyperscaler tenants over the highest headline lease rate
  • Complete the governance and operational transformation to a best-in-class data center lessor
  • Explore consolidation/sale if near-term execution proves challenging

KPIs cited

Gross power capacity at Corsicana + Rockdale
1.7GW fully available (1.0GW Corsicana, 0.7GW Rockdale)
Peer AI/HPC lease rate
~$1.80/MW of CIT MW; ~1.4GW across four peers Aug-Dec 2025
AMD deal lease economics
$1.24mm annual revenue and $1mm EBITDA per CIT MW; 80% EBITDA margin; $311mm over 10-year term
AMD retrofit capex
$3.6mm per CIT MW at Rockdale, below precedent AI/HPC transactions
Potential AI/HPC EBITDA
~$1.6bn annually (Corsicana $1,020mm + Rockdale non-AMD $408mm + Rockdale AMD $199mm)
Valuation multiple benchmark
~22x NTM EBITDA for DLR/EQIX data-center REITs as of Feb 13, 2026
Implied pro-forma share price
$23.55 at 12.5x to $52.60 at 20x AI/HPC EBITDA
Mining operations uptime
Improved from ~69% in Sep 2024 to 86% in Q3 2025
Stock-based compensation run-rate
Non-cash charges dropping from ~$25mm/quarter to ~$8mm in Q3 2026
Net cash position
$1,005mm
NOL carryforwards
~$1.2bn as of FY24 10-K
Diluted shares outstanding
420mm

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Precedents cited

  • TeraWulf (WULF) transactions with Fluidstack/Google
  • Cipher Mining (CIFR) transactions with Fluidstack/Google and AWS
  • Hut 8 (HUT) transaction with Fluidstack/Google
  • Digital Realty (DLR) and Equinix (EQIX) trading multiples as REIT benchmark

Notable slides (3)

Notes

Five-page public letter from Peter Feld (Starboard) to Riot CEO Jason Les and Executive Chairman Benjamin Yi, cc'd to the Board. Written as a collaborative follow-up after ~1 year of engagement; tone is constructive rather than adversarial despite clear pressure to accelerate execution. Key visuals are the indexed peer-performance chart (p.1), AI/HPC EBITDA build-up table (p.3), and the share-price sensitivity table (p.4, $23.55-$52.60). No stake percentage disclosed in this document. Campaign phase is follow_up: Starboard references existing engagement, prior board additions, and the already-hired Chief Data Center Officer. Includes soft sale-of-company optionality ('exciting candidate for consolidation') as a fallback.