Contrarian Corpus
activist full deck follow up
2025-02-11 · 53 pages

Phillips 66 PSX

N 5 Narrative
V 4 Visual
C 4 Craft
Original source ↗

The three reasons

  1. 1

    Conglomerate structure hides a Midstream worth >$40bn standalone; market gives refining ~$1bn of credit

  2. 2

    Management missed 2025 $14bn mid-cycle EBITDA target by ~$5.7bn and recycled divestiture proceeds into dilutive M&A

  3. 3

    Following Marathon's path of asset sales plus buybacks implies ~$200/share base case and $300+ upside vs $120 today

Primary demands

  • Sell or spin the Midstream business
  • Pursue sale of Phillips' 50% JV interest in CPChem
  • Execute plan to sell the German and Austrian JET retail business
  • Commit to ambitious refining targets matching VLO/MPC EBITDA per barrel
  • Add new independent directors and review executive leadership
  • Direct divestiture proceeds to share buybacks rather than midstream M&A

KPIs cited

Stock price upside
$120 current → ~$200 base case (+65%) → $300+ (>150%) under Marathon Path
2026E TEV/EBITDA
PSX 6.6x vs midstream peer avg 10.2x and chemicals peer avg 6.6x; SOTP 8.4x
Refining EBITDA per barrel (2025E, excl. TAR)
PSX $3.15 vs VLO $5.76 — $2.61/bbl gap
Refining opex per barrel (2025E, excl. TAR)
PSX $6.58 vs VLO $4.78 — $1.80/bbl gap
Cumulative TSR vs MPC
-188% over 10 years, -408% over 9 years
Cumulative TSR vs VLO
-137% over 10 years
2025 Adj. EBITDA shortfall vs mid-cycle target
$14bn target vs $8.4bn consensus — $5.7bn shortfall, ~$3.6bn driven by refining
Standalone Midstream TEV
$37–49bn range at 9.0x–12.0x; $42bn at 10.2x implies +$36/share
Implied value of refining in current stock price
~$1bn vs $34bn if valued at Valero's per-bbl multiple
PSX Midstream EBITDA mix
38% of 2025E EBITDA; >70% of EBITDA from non-refining premium segments
Net proceeds if Midstream, CPChem and JET sold
~$47.7bn gross after tax leakage and debt paydown = 96% of current market cap
Consulting spend since 2022
~$300mm in business transformation/restructuring costs with little bottom-line benefit
Growth capex overruns
Cedar Bayou +20%, Gray Oak +32%, Rodeo Renewable Diesel +47% over original budget

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Notable slides (6)

Notes

Campaign branded as 'Streamline 66' with Route-66 highway-shield visual motif carried throughout. Builds on Elliott's prior Nov 2023 engagement letter — classified as follow_up since this is the expanded public thesis deck, not the first disclosure. Heavy use of Marathon Petroleum as precedent (Elliott's 2019 MPC campaign) with case-study and 'Marathon Path' upside scenario. Strong CEO-quote contradictions of Mark Lashier on earnings calls paired with analyst skepticism from Wolfe, Goldman, TPH. Three-pillar structure (Inefficient Conglomerate / Poor Operating Performance / Damaged Management Credibility) reinforced via section tabs at top of every page. Closing ask is constructive engagement rather than a proxy fight demand.