Contrarian Corpus
activist conference presentation follow up
2024-10-01 · 14 pages

Salesforce, Inc. CRM

Salesforce has executed Starboard's 2022 thesis — margins up 1,000bps, stock +99% — but committing to Rule of 50 by FY2028 still unlocks $20+ FCF/share at ~14x.

N 4 Narrative
V 3 Visual
C 3 Craft
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Thesis

Two years after Starboard first publicly flagged Salesforce at the 2022 Active-Passive Investor Summit, the firm returns to declare partial vindication and press for the next leg of value creation. Since FY2023, Salesforce has expanded adjusted operating margins by more than 1,000bps to a guided 32.8%, and the stock has nearly doubled (+99%). Yet CRM still trades at just 21x CY2025E free cash flow versus a peer median of 29x, because revenue growth has decelerated to ~9% and the combined Rule-of-50 score sits at 43% versus a 53.5% peer median. Starboard outlines two paths to closing the gap by FY2028: a stable-growth scenario (9% revenue CAGR + 41% margins + $1bn incremental cost savings) or a higher-growth scenario (11% + 39%) catalyzed by Agentforce. Either delivers $20+ FCF per share, meaning CRM currently trades at only ~14x FY2028 FCF.

SCQA

Situation

Salesforce is the leading enterprise CRM software platform; Starboard first publicly flagged it in 2022 as a high-quality, sticky business trading well below peer-group combined growth-and-profitability profiles.

Complication

Despite a 1,000bps margin expansion since FY2023, growth has decelerated to ~9% and the combined Rule-of-50 score of 43% still trails the 53.5% peer median, leaving CRM at a 21x vs 29x P/FCF discount.

Resolution

Management should publicly commit to reaching the Rule of 50 by FY2028 via incremental ~$1bn of S&M and G&A cost cuts plus Agentforce-led growth acceleration, closing the gap to peer financial profiles.

Reward

Either the stable-growth (9%+41%) or higher-growth (11%+39%) path delivers $20+ FCF per share by FY2028, implying CRM currently trades at only ~14x FY2028 free cash flow.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    Margin expansion of 1,000bps since FY2023 and stock up 99% — original thesis is working

  2. 2

    Still trades 21x P/FCF vs 29x peer median; Rule-of-50 score lags peers by 10 points

  3. 3

    Agentforce plus $1bn of cost savings can hit Rule of 50 by FY2028, delivering $20+ FCF/share

Primary demands

  • Publicly commit to achieving the Rule of 50 (revenue growth + adj. operating margin) by FY2028
  • Continue expanding operating margins toward ~41% via incremental ~$1bn of S&M and G&A cost savings
  • Reaccelerate revenue growth, leveraging Agentforce as the next growth catalyst
  • Close the valuation gap to peers (currently 21x P/FCF vs 29x peer median)

KPIs cited

Adjusted operating margin (current)
32.8% FY2025E guidance, up from 22.5% FY2023 — +1,000bps in two years
Stock price performance
+99% from October 2022 to October 2024
Revenue growth + Adj. operating margin (Rule of 50)
CRM at 43% (9.0% growth + 34.0% margin) vs peer median 53.5%
Price / CY2025E Free Cash Flow
CRM 21x vs peer median 29x (ORCL 55x, NOW 45x, MSFT 38x)
Sales & Marketing as % of revenue
29.7% FY2025E vs 36.2% FY2023 (650bps improved); peer median 23.8% — 590bps remaining
G&A as % of revenue
6.3% FY2025E vs 7.0% FY2023; peer median 5.5% — 80bps remaining
FY2028 FCF per share target
$20+ under either stable-growth (9%/41%) or higher-growth (11%/39%) path
Implied PF CRM FY2028 P/FCF
~14x at current price if Rule-of-50 financial profile is achieved

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Notable slides (5)

Notes

Follow-up to Starboard's 2022 Active-Passive Investor Summit Salesforce thesis (also referenced Splunk and Wix in 2022). Tone is celebratory/analytical — explicitly takes a victory lap on margin expansion and stock performance, then presses for the next leg. No villain named (collaborative posture toward Benioff/management). Watermarked 'www.10XEBITDA.com' on every page (third-party redistribution; original is digital, not scanned). Author of the talk likely Jeff Smith (Starboard CEO) but document credits only the firm, so author_name left null. Stake size not disclosed in this document.