Contrarian Corpus
activist conference presentation initial thesis
2012-10-01 · 69 pages

Alexander & Baldwin (ALEX); GenCorp (GY); Brookfield Residential Properties (BRP)

Three stocks — ALEX, GenCorp, Brookfield Residential — hide land assets on their balance sheets at decades-old cost, offering 46-286% upside once marked to market.

N 3 Narrative
V 3 Visual
C 2 Craft
Original source ↗

Thesis

Marcato's Value Investing Congress presentation argues that GAAP Section 360 — which carries land at the lower of cost or fair value — systematically understates asset values when properties are very old, creating three contrarian long opportunities. Alexander & Baldwin (ALEX) owns roughly 88,000 Hawaii acres acquired circa 1870 at $150/acre book value; Marcato's bottoms-up NAV of $43.70-$47.30/share implies 46-58% upside to a $30 stock. GenCorp (GY) sits on 12,000 contiguous Sacramento acres ($64m book) being entitled as the Easton master-planned community, worth roughly $370m or 61% of market cap — and combined with the Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne acquisition points to $23.96/share vs. $9.75 (146% upside). Brookfield Residential's market tangible book is $2.2bn vs. $995m reported, and peer multiples imply $45-$55/share vs. $14.39 (210-286% upside).

SCQA

Situation

Three companies (ALEX, GY, BRP) own legacy land parcels, some purchased decades or more than a century ago, now carried on their balance sheets at the lower of original cost or fair value under GAAP Section 360.

Complication

Because the cost bases are minimal or pre-inflation, reported book value grossly understates fair market value — making each stock look more expensive than its underlying asset base justifies and leaving the hidden value off most analysts' models.

Resolution

Apply bottoms-up NAV and sum-of-parts valuations to each name using recent land comps, precedent transactions, cap rates on lease income, and peer tangible-book multiples to surface the true market value of the balance sheet.

Reward

ALEX fair value $43.70-$47.30 (46-58% upside), GY $23.96 (146% upside), BRP $44.63-$55.48 (210-286% upside) — all three offer material re-rating once the hidden land value is recognized by the market.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    ALEX: 88,000 Hawaii acres at 1870s cost support 46-58% upside to $44-$47

  2. 2

    GY: Sacramento land plus Pratt-Whitney deal imply $24/share vs $9.75 (146% upside)

  3. 3

    BRP: $2.2bn market tangible book implies $45-$55/share vs $14.39 (210-286% upside)

KPIs cited

ALEX Hawaii landholdings
~88,000 acres carried at ~$150/acre (~$13m book value), acquired circa 1870
ALEX commercial GLA
7.9m sq ft leased portfolio (92% occupied) valued at ~$917m vs. $819m book
ALEX NAV per share
$43.70-$47.30 sum-of-parts vs. $30 stock price (46-58% premium)
GY Sacramento land
12,000 contiguous raw acres at ~$64m book, valued at ~$302m at $50k/acre comps
GY excess real estate value
~$368m ($5.99/share) = 61% of market cap
GY pro-forma P/E
Trading at 8.2x recurring cash earnings vs. 142.8x GAAP
GY implied share price
$23.96 vs. $9.75 current (145.8% premium) post Rocketdyne deal
BRP land/housing inventory runway
30.1x years vs. 8.7x homebuilder peer average
BRP market tangible book
$2.19bn vs. $995m reported book (+119.7%)
BRP P/TBV
1.3x reported (0.7x market) vs. 2.0x peer median
BRP implied share price
$44.63-$55.48 vs. $14.39 (210-286% premium)

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Precedents cited

  • Maui Land & Pineapple precedent Upcountry Maui land sales (~$23,000/acre avg)
  • AKT 2010 Sacramento land purchase ($49,000/acre for 17,000 acres)
  • Goldman Sachs 2006 DCFs of Wailea, Haiimaile, and Kukui'ula projects

Notable slides (6)

Notes

Value Investing Congress presentation by Marcato Capital (Mick McGuire's firm) framed as an educational piece on finding hidden land value under GAAP Section 360 (lower of cost or fair value). Three separate long ideas bundled: ALEX (Hawaii legacy land), GY (Sacramento Aerojet land + Pratt-Whitney Rocketdyne deal), BRP (Canadian homebuilder with aged land carried at cost). Not an activist campaign — no named villain, no board demands, no stake disclosed. Author is Marcato (likely Mick McGuire given founder role), but cover attributes firm only. Standard Marcato blue/grey template; functional institutional design, not a craft standout.