Vivion Investments
Muddy Waters stays short Vivion bonds: the December 2022 rebuttal is misleading, asset values are inflated, rent24 exposure is hidden, and shareholder loans are being cashed out with bondholder money.
Thesis
Muddy Waters remains short Vivion Investments bonds, arguing Vivion's December 2022 rebuttal is riddled with inaccuracies. Fieldwork shows Vivion systematically inflated German asset values: 99%+ overstated development rights, Potsdamer Straße properties acquired for €25m in 2013 now carried at €288m despite vacancy and dilapidation, and a suspect 78.6% pre-contribution fair-value gain booked by Amir Dayan's Turanco one year before Vivion's formation. The rebuttal downplays rent24 — a Dayan-controlled WeWork knockoff — as 2.5% of German revenue when it likely occupies 7-11% of lettable area. Inflated assets propped up €746m of shareholder loans, €357m already repaid to insiders with bond proceeds, leaving bondholders facing a haircut. The Dayan brothers remain under Israeli tax-evasion investigation, and Amir Dayan has since become a Cypriot citizen.
SCQA
Vivion Investments is a Luxembourg-based private real estate issuer controlled by Amir Dayan, funded by over €1.7bn of public euro bonds backed by German office and UK hotel portfolios contributed by insider shareholders in 2018-2019.
Vivion's December 2022 rebuttal contains inaccuracies: new evidence shows systematic asset overvaluation (99%+ on development rights, ~10x on Potsdamer Str.) and manipulated shareholder-loan balances now being repaid to insiders with bond proceeds.
Muddy Waters maintains its short in Vivion's bonds and urges bondholders to reject the rebuttal, re-underwrite collateral, scrutinize rent24 related-party exposure, and anticipate taking haircuts from the Dayans.
Marking Vivion's German assets to defensible values and writing down fictitious shareholder-loan receivables implies material impairment of bond recovery; the title telegraphs haircuts rather than a specific price target.
The three reasons
- 1
Vivion overstated German development rights by 99%+ and Potsdamer Str. properties by ~10x
- 2
rent24, a Dayan-controlled WeWork knockoff, is 7-11% of German rental, not the claimed 2.5%
- 3
Inflated assets propped up €746m of shareholder loans, now being repaid with bond cash
Primary demands
- Bondholders should reject Vivion's rebuttal and re-underwrite collateral valuations
- Treat rent24 as a material related-party exposure, not a 2.5% rounding item
- Recognize that shareholder loans are being repaid to insiders with bond proceeds
KPIs cited
Pattern membership
Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.
Notable slides (5)
Notes
Follow-up short note on Vivion's private euro bonds, responding to Vivion's Dec 2022 rebuttal of MW's original 'Multi-Billion Euro Shell Game' report. Word-doc memo style, not a slide deck — prose body with appendix of source-document screenshots (Savills valuations, Cypriot filings, Israeli press, Companies House records). Title 'You Don't Mess With The Dayan' riffs on The Big Lebowski and foreshadows bondholder haircuts. Carson Block credited on disclaimer as Director of Research; report is firm-signed rather than personally signed. No formal closing ask, target price, or SCQA slide.