Contrarian Corpus
short seller research note follow up
2023-08-04 · 7 pages

Vivion Investments

Vivion's proposed bond exchange rests on inflated UK hotel valuations — illustrated by Crowne Plaza Heathrow, marked at EUR94.6m versus CBRE's EUR72.9m — serving insiders, not bondholders.

N 4 Narrative
V 2 Visual
C 3 Craft
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Thesis

Muddy Waters, still short Vivion bonds, attacks the company's proposed maturity-extension bond exchange as resting on untrustworthy property valuations and financials. The report uses Vivion's Crowne Plaza Heathrow, Stockley Road as a case study: Vivion's 2022 noteholder report markets the hotel with a sunset glamour shot and carries it at EUR94.6m (Savills, January 2022), yet a CBRE valuation from Q3 2022 pegs the same asset at just EUR72.9m, and an on-site investigator describes a graffiti-covered building a UK High Court and The Guardian previously called 'prison-like.' Muddy Waters argues this misrepresentation is consistent with broader deceptions in Vivion's German portfolio and financials, and that the exchange is engineered to let shareholders keep extracting repayments on shareholder loans whose values — and existence — the firm has questioned, leaving bondholders to absorb haircuts now or later.

SCQA

Situation

Vivion Investments, a European hotel/real-estate group, has proposed a bond exchange to extend its maturities and is marketing its UK portfolio to noteholders using Savills-backed property valuations.

Complication

The valuations and financials are untrustworthy: Crowne Plaza Heathrow Stockley Road is carried at EUR94.6m while a CBRE Q3 2022 valuation shows only EUR72.9m, and the hotel itself is a graffiti-covered, 'prison-like' asset nothing like the marketed image.

Resolution

Bondholders should scrutinize — and effectively resist — the exchange, recognizing that it appears structured to enable further repayments of questionable shareholder loans rather than to protect noteholder interests.

Reward

Avoiding haircuts: Muddy Waters expects Vivion bondholders to take losses whether now or later if the exchange proceeds on the basis of inflated valuations; no specific price target is disclosed.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    Vivion values Crowne Plaza Heathrow Stockley Road at EUR94.6m; CBRE valued it at only EUR72.9m

  2. 2

    Vivion's marketing image misrepresents a graffiti-covered, 'prison-like' property

  3. 3

    Exchange appears to enable further shareholder-loan repayments to insiders

Primary demands

  • Bondholders should reject or scrutinize Vivion's proposed bond exchange
  • Investors should question whose interests the exchange actually serves

KPIs cited

Crowne Plaza Heathrow Stockley Road — Vivion/Savills valuation
EUR94.6m (GBP83.7m) per Vivion's July 2023 Exchange Offer Memorandum
Crowne Plaza Heathrow Stockley Road — CBRE valuation
EUR72.9m (GBP62.6m) per CBRE 3Q 2022 Investor Report — ~23% below Vivion mark
Savills January 2022 valuation (Project Ribbon)
GBP57.0m (EUR72.7m) — CBRE's later figure is already ~10% above this
UK hotel portfolio fair value (31 Dec 2022, selected assets)
EUR657.7m across 1,773 keys, ~33.5% of total portfolio value
Crowne Plaza Heathrow key count
465 keys

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Notable slides (5)

Notes

Short follow-up note (7 pages including ToU and appendix) to prior Muddy Waters Vivion reports. Signature is Carson C. Block (Director of Research) on masthead; Muddy Waters remains short Vivion bonds. Core rhetorical device: juxtapose Vivion's glossy 'HIGHLIGHTS FY 2022' marketing image of Crowne Plaza Heathrow against Muddy Waters' own investigator photo of a graffiti-covered, 'prison-like' building, then compare Vivion's EUR94.6m valuation with CBRE's EUR72.9m. Appendix reproduces Vivion's and Savills' valuation tables side-by-side. No stake disclosed (short position in bonds, not equity). Classified as research_note; campaign_phase=follow_up since this extends a prior short campaign.