Contrarian Corpus
activist full deck initial thesis
2014-03-31 · 108 pages

Darden Restaurants, Inc. DRI

Darden's rushed Red Lobster spin-off traps ~$850m of real estate value at a trough multiple; shareholders must force a Special Meeting to halt this irreversible mistake.

Thesis

Darden announced in December 2013 it would spin off Red Lobster before the 2014 Annual Meeting, framing it as a way to offload a struggling brand. Starboard argues this is the wrong spin-off, at the wrong time, for the wrong reasons: Red Lobster's EBITDA margin has fallen from 11.9% to 9.3% over five years with same-store-sales at -8.8% and traffic at -14.1%, so a standalone entity would likely trade at the lowest multiple in casual dining, destroying more than $800m of value unless New Darden's multiple expands sharply. The separation also traps roughly $850m of real estate inside a weak-credit operating tenant, when a REIT separation of Darden's ~$4bn owned real estate could instead unlock $1-2bn. Starboard, supported by Green Street Advisors, is soliciting consents for a Special Meeting to halt the spin and will present a comprehensive operational and real estate plan.

SCQA

Situation

Darden is the largest casual-dining operator — Olive Garden, Red Lobster, LongHorn, Capital Grille, Yard House — generating $8.7bn of revenue on top of approximately $4bn of owned and ground-leased real estate.

Complication

Management is rushing an irreversible Red Lobster spin-off before the 2014 Annual Meeting at trough performance, trapping ~$850m of real estate value and crystallizing a sub-7x EBITDA multiple on the weakest brand.

Resolution

Consent to Starboard's White Request Card to call a Special Meeting, block the spin pending shareholder vote, and pursue a REIT real estate separation, operational turnaround, and more logical brand regrouping instead.

Reward

Halting the spin avoids >$800m of multiple-driven value destruction, unlocks $1-2bn of incremental value from a REIT separation, and captures 300bps of margin recovery from fixing SG&A and bloated cost structure.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    Separating Red Lobster with its real estate traps ~$850m of value inside a weak-credit tenant

  2. 2

    New Red Lobster would trade at a sub-7x trough multiple; New Darden must rerate or >$800m is lost

  3. 3

    Darden's ~$4bn of owned real estate could unlock an additional $1-2bn through a REIT separation

Primary demands

  • Sign Starboard's White Request Card to call a Special Meeting of shareholders
  • Halt the Red Lobster separation until shareholders vote and a comprehensive plan is developed
  • Pursue a tax-efficient REIT / real estate separation of Darden's ~$4bn of owned real estate
  • Execute a company-wide operational turnaround closing the ~300bp fully-leased EBITDA margin gap vs peers
  • Reorganize brands into the most logical groupings rather than a single isolated Red Lobster spin
  • Roll back recent bylaw amendments that further entrench management

KPIs cited

Red Lobster EBITDA margin
declined from 11.9% (FY2009) to 9.3% (LTM 11/24/2013)
Red Lobster same-store-sales
3Q12 +5.9% collapsing to 3Q14 -8.8%; FY14 YTD -6.2%
Red Lobster traffic growth
+1.2% in 3Q12 falling to -14.1% in 3Q14
Darden fully-leased LTM EBITDA margin
7.4% vs 10.3% peer median — ~300bp gap, second-lowest only to Ruby Tuesday
Darden SG&A % of sales
9.9% vs 6.5% peer median despite ~7x peer-average revenue
Cumulative capex & acquisitions since 2005
$6.1bn, or $46.50 per current Darden share, under CEO Otis
Darden return on capital
19.3% in 2007 down to 9.2% in 2013 — a ~45% decline as capex rose ~225%
TSR underperformance
5-yr +104% vs S&P 500 +171%, Russell 3000 Restaurants +212%, closest peers +400%
Red Lobster trapped real estate value
~$856m at 6.5x RL multiple vs 14.6x triple-net REIT multiple
Darden owned real estate value
conservatively ~$4bn, with $1-2bn of incremental value creatable via REIT separation
Break-even multiple analysis
New Darden needs ~10.2-10.5x EBITDA (vs current 9.44x) just to offset RL at 6-7x

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns. Orange cells are present in this deck; neutral cells are not.

Slide gallery ·

No slide inventory yet

Pass-2 extraction may still be in progress for this deck.

Notes

Core Special Meeting solicitation deck opposing Darden's announced Red Lobster spin-off. Companion to 'A Primer on Darden's Real Estate' (referenced in footer of nearly every page) and supported by Green Street Advisors on real estate valuation. Signature rhetorical frame: 'the wrong spin-off, at the wrong time, for the wrong reasons'. Stake of 5.5% appears via a Hedgeye quote on slide 55 rather than an explicit Starboard disclosure in the body. No individual human author/signatory on the cover — firm-authored. Distinctive visual beat: slides 86-87 show photos of Darden's lavish $152m Orlando HQ as visual evidence of bloated SG&A, an unusually concrete rhetorical device for an activist deck. This March 2014 deck precedes Starboard's famous 294-page Olive Garden deck from September 2014.