Contrarian Corpus
activist conference presentation follow up
2023-10-17 · 70 pages

GoDaddy GDDY

GoDaddy missed its 2022 Investor Day commitments as Tech & Development costs ballooned; cutting costs to hit 33%+ EBITDA margins re-rates FCF/share to $10+ and closes the peer-multiple gap.

N 3 Narrative
V 3 Visual
C 3 Craft
Source URL unavailable

Thesis

Starboard argues GoDaddy, a $14 billion domains/hosting/web-presence leader with 21 million customers (3-5x its nearest peers), is underperforming because Tech & Development expense has ballooned to ~21% of revenue while revenue growth slowed to 3-7% — causing GDDY to miss its 2022 Investor Day revenue, EBITDA and free cash flow targets and trail tech peers by 37% YTD. The fix is margin expansion: rationalize Tech & Development, trim G&A, customer care and marketing, and let operating leverage push Adjusted EBITDA margins from ~26% in 2023 to 33%+ exiting 2024, lifting growth+profitability from 31% to 40% — in line with scaled recurring-revenue technology peers. Execution would drive FCF per share from $7.25 to $10+ and enable a multiple re-rating from 11x toward the 17.7x peer median. The deck pairs GoDaddy with value-creation ideas on News Corp (separate Digital Real Estate, ~50% SOTP upside) and Fortrea (CRO margin catch-up, up to ~144% upside).

SCQA

Situation

GoDaddy is the dominant $14 billion small-business web-presence platform with 21 million customers — 3-5x Wix, Ionos or Squarespace — generating ~$4.1 billion of recurring revenue across domains, hosting, web presence and applications/commerce.

Complication

Tech & Development expense has risen to ~21% of revenue while revenue growth decelerated to 3-7%; GoDaddy is on track to miss its 2022 Investor Day revenue, EBITDA and FCF targets and has underperformed tech peers by 37% YTD.

Resolution

Rationalize Tech & Development, G&A, customer care and marketing so Adjusted EBITDA margins expand from ~26% in 2023 to 33%+ exiting 2024, lifting growth+profitability from 31% to 40% — in line with scaled recurring-revenue technology peers.

Reward

Free cash flow per share re-rates from $7.25 to $10+ and the multiple re-rates from 11x toward the ~17.7x peer median, closing GoDaddy's valuation discount to predictable-growth technology peers.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    GoDaddy tracking to miss 2024 Investor Day targets by >$500M revenue, >$100M EBITDA, >$150M FCF

  2. 2

    Tech & Development expense now ~21% of revenue while revenue growth collapsed to 3-7%

  3. 3

    GDDY trades 11x FCF vs. 17.7x peer median — 33%+ EBITDA margins would lift FCF/share to $10+

Primary demands

  • Rationalize Tech & Development spending, which has grown to ~21% of revenue while revenue growth slowed
  • Reduce G&A, customer care and marketing & advertising expenses to expand margins
  • Target Adjusted EBITDA margins of 33%+ exiting 2024 (from ~26% in 2023)
  • Lift growth + profitability from 31% to 40% to match scaled recurring-revenue tech peers
  • (News Corp) Separate the Digital Real Estate assets to unlock $7B+ of trapped SOTP value
  • (Fortrea) Execute CEO Tom Pike's margin plan to close ~500bp gap to peer median

KPIs cited

Tech & Development as % of revenue
20.9% in Q2'23 annualized, up from 16.3% in FY18
Revenue growth
3.2% Q2'23 annualized vs. 10%+ Investor Day commitment; FY23E 4.8% vs. target of higher
Adjusted EBITDA margin
~26% FY23E, target 33%+ exiting 2024
Growth + Profitability (rev growth + EBITDA margin)
31% GDDY vs. 39% peer median; 700bp decline from 38% in FY21
Price / CY2023E FCF multiple
11.0x GDDY vs. 17.7x peer median
Customer count
21M (3-5x Wix 6.1M, Ionos ~6.0M, Squarespace 4.3M)
FY24 target miss
>$500M revenue miss, >$100M EBITDA miss, >$150M FCF miss vs. Investor Day
YTD share price performance
GDDY flat vs. Nasdaq Internet +37%, S&P +13%
News Corp ex-REA implied multiple
4.0x FY24E EBITDA vs. NYT >15x
Fortrea FY23 EBITDA margin
~9% guide vs. 18% peer median at comparable scale

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Precedents cited

  • Starboard's 2022 Wix, Splunk and Salesforce conference ideas (+12% / +100% / +39% returns)
  • Tom Pike's IQVIA (Quintiles) margin turnaround — +425bp EBITDA margins, +48% TSR outperformance
  • The New York Times Company trading at >15x NTM EBITDA as valuation anchor for Dow Jones
  • CRO precedent transactions (Thermo Fisher/PPD, EQT/Parexel, ICON/PRA) at 13-25x EBITDA

Notable slides (6)

Notes

Multi-idea conference deck delivered at 13D Monitor's 2023 Active-Passive Investor Summit (October 2023). Covers three Starboard ideas in sequence: (1) GoDaddy — margin expansion / Tech & Development cost rationalization — the primary target per the filename; (2) News Corp — sum-of-parts thesis arguing separation of Digital Real Estate assets unlocks ~50% upside to ~$33/share, with ex-REA business trading at just 4x EBITDA vs. NYT >15x; (3) Fortrea — recently-spun LabCorp CRO with margins ~500bp below peer median, CEO Tom Pike cited as IQVIA margin-turnaround precedent, 60-144% upside. Deck opens with a recap of last year's Wix/Splunk/Salesforce ideas as track-record proof (playbook signal). Document is watermarked 'www.10XEBITDA.com' throughout and has 13D Monitor website screenshots standing in for redacted visuals on pp. 11-14 — suggests this is a publicly-scraped version, not the original Starboard file. Stake size not disclosed in the deck; Starboard's GoDaddy 13D was filed December 2021 per footnote. No named author; firm-credited only. No CEO villain-naming — critique stays impersonal and performance-focused. Fortrea section does include a positive verbatim quote from CEO Tom Pike on margin plans.