Contrarian Corpus
activist letter follow up
2020-02-04 · 6 pages

eBay Inc. EBAY

eBay is deeply undervalued; separating Classifieds at peer-level ~22x EBITDA multiples and enforcing a more aggressive Marketplace cost and revenue plan would unlock substantial upside versus today's 8.1x multiple.

N 4 Narrative
V 2 Visual
C 2 Craft
Original source ↗

Thesis

Starboard, owning more than 1% of eBay, argues the company is deeply undervalued after a year of inadequate progress since its March 2019 cooperation agreement. While management completed the StubHub sale to viagogo for $4.05bn at 20x+ EBITDA, it has not committed to separating Classifieds and has proposed only a 2% three-year Marketplace margin expansion, implying under $250m of cost savings on a $5bn+ base. Starboard demands a public commitment to separate Classifieds — where peers such as Adevinta, REA Group, Rightmove and Auto Trader trade at a ~22x median EBITDA multiple versus eBay's consolidated 8.1x — plus a more stringent cost review of core Marketplace and better revenue execution through Managed Payments and advertising. Shares have fallen 9% since the agreements while the S&P 500 rose 19%; Starboard again requests a board meeting ahead of upcoming governance deadlines.

SCQA

Situation

eBay is a pioneering e-commerce marketplace (~$8.6bn 2019 Marketplace revenue) that Starboard first engaged in 2018 and then partnered on via a March 2019 cooperation agreement with Elliott, adding directors and launching an Operating Review and a Strategic Review of StubHub and Classifieds.

Complication

Nearly twelve months later progress is inadequate: shares have dropped 9% vs. the S&P 500's 19% gain, the Operating Review promises only 2% margin expansion over three years on a ~28% base, and no commitment to separating Classifieds has been made.

Resolution

Publicly commit to separating Classifieds through a tax-free spin-off or sale, adopt a more stringent Marketplace cost-cutting plan, execute on Managed Payments and advertising growth initiatives, and immediately meet with the Board ahead of governance deadlines.

Reward

Classifieds peers trade at a ~22x 2020E EBITDA median versus eBay's consolidated 8.1x, while the implied ~5.0x RemainCo multiple sits below department stores (5.2x) and well below e-commerce peers (16.3x) — implying multi-turn re-rating upside.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    Classifieds peers trade at ~22x 2020E EBITDA vs. eBay's consolidated 8.1x — separation unlocks value

  2. 2

    Shares fell ~9% since the March 2019 cooperation agreement while the S&P 500 rose 19%

  3. 3

    Operating Review's 2% margin-expansion target implies <5% cost cuts — too modest for eight months of work

Primary demands

  • Publicly commit to separating the eBay Classifieds Group via spin-off or sale
  • Adopt a more stringent cost-cutting plan for the core Marketplace business beyond the 2% / 3-year target
  • Improve Marketplace revenue execution via Managed Payments, advertising, and refocus on core 'treasure-hunter' buyers
  • Complete the pending board refresh (add a new director and announce the departure of an incumbent per the March 2019 agreement)
  • Grant Starboard a meeting with members of the Board ahead of upcoming governance deadlines

KPIs cited

EV / 2020E EBITDA multiple (Classifieds peers)
Median 22.0x (Adevinta 29.6x, REA 26.0x, Rightmove 23.9x, Scout24 20.2x, carsales.com 20.0x, Auto Trader 19.0x) vs. eBay consolidated 8.1x
TSR since PayPal spin-off (2015)
eBay +19% vs. S&P 500 +69%, NASDAQ +88%, S&P 500 IT +151% — ~50-132pp underperformance
TSR since March 2019 cooperation agreements
eBay -9% vs. S&P 500 +19%, NASDAQ +24%, S&P 500 IT +39%
Operating margin expansion target (Operating Review)
Only 2% over 3 years on a ~28% base — 'level we would expect any company to strive to achieve in normal course'
Implied net cost savings in Operating Review target
~$250m on a >$5bn cost base (<5%); erased ~$3bn of market value the day after announcement
StubHub sale metrics
$4.05bn to viagogo at >20x 2019E Adj. EBITDA (pre-tax)
Classifieds Adj. EBITDA margin (Starboard est.)
Low-to-mid 40% range, consistent with high-single-digit growth guidance
Managed Payments 2022 contribution
>$2bn in revenue and $500m in operating profit annually
RemainCo implied EV/EBITDA
~5.0x vs. department-store median 5.2x (DDS/JWN/KSS) vs. e-commerce median 16.3x (ETSY/ANGI/BKNG)
Marketplace GMV trend
Declined 5% in 2019 on reported basis despite heavy R&D and S&M spend

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Precedents cited

  • eBay's prior PayPal spin-off (2015) as value-creating portfolio action
  • StubHub sale to viagogo for $4.05bn at >20x 2019E EBITDA (November 2019) as first step in simplification

Notable slides (4)

Notes

Six-page public letter from Peter A. Feld (Managing Member, Starboard Value LP) addressed to Chairman Thomas Tierney and Interim CEO Scott Schenkel, cc'd to the Board of Directors. Follow-up to the March 2019 Starboard/Elliott/eBay cooperation agreement. Stake disclosed only as 'more than 1%' — recorded as 1.0 (the explicitly-claimed floor). Tone is collaborative on the surface ('we have tremendous respect for eBay... open to working together') but firm about unmet commitments; critique is institutional rather than targeting a named villain. Document quotes prior management commitments ('target operational excellence...', '[we] anticipate having an update... by the middle of this year') to expose delay. Four charts (TSR table, Classifieds peer multiples, cost-savings waterfall, RemainCo vs. dept-store vs. e-commerce) carry the visual argument; otherwise Word-letter style.