Teck Resources TECK
Teck is the overlooked pick-axes play on the EV/green-electrification copper boom — QB2 doubles its copper mix and at forward-curve copper the stock is worth ~C$59, nearly double.
Thesis
Einhorn frames Teck Resources as a pick-axes play on the EV and green-energy gold rush: electrification will add 5 million tonnes of annual copper demand by 2029 (16% of global demand) while a decade of underinvestment has shrunk the probable copper project pipeline 60% since 2008, and Goldman forecasts a record $15,000/t ($6.80/lb) by 2025. Freeport-McMoRan is the obvious trade but is already up 45% YTD at 16x earnings; Teck is overlooked at 9.6x 2021 EPS with better growth. Its $5.7bn QB2 mine in Chile — underwritten at $3.00 copper and coming online H2 2022 — is alone worth Teck's current market cap at forward-curve prices and shifts revenue mix to 45% copper by 2023. Adding metallurgical coal, zinc and Project Satellite, Einhorn's DCF yields C$59 at $4.50 copper (91% upside) and C$88 at $6.80 (185%).
SCQA
Teck Resources is a Canadian-listed diversified miner (2020 revenue: 38% met coal, 30% zinc, 27% copper, 5% energy) with a major Chilean copper expansion, QB2, under construction and due online in H2 2022.
Electrification — EVs, chargers, solar, wind, grid — will add ~5Mt/yr of copper demand by 2029 while the probable project pipeline has collapsed 60% since 2008, creating a structural supply gap that Goldman calls 'copper is the new oil.'
Buy Teck instead of already-crowded Freeport: QB2 reshapes its mix to 45% copper by 2023 and the stock trades at 9.6x EPS vs FCX at 16x, while forward-curve copper has left consensus numbers stale.
DCF yields C$40/share at $3.00 copper (29% upside), C$59 at the $4.50 forward curve (91%), and C$88 at Goldman's $6.80 bull case (185%) from May 7 close of C$31.09.
The three reasons
- 1
EV / green-electrification boom plus a 60% shrunk project pipeline creates a structural copper supply gap
- 2
QB2 expansion alone is worth Teck's entire current market cap and doubles copper revenue mix by 2023
- 3
Teck trades at 9.6x 2021 EPS vs Freeport's 16x, with DCF upside of 91% at $4.50 forward-curve copper
Primary demands
- Buy Teck Resources ahead of QB2 copper expansion coming online in H2 2022
- Rerate Teck toward copper-pure-play multiples as revenue mix shifts from coal to copper
KPIs cited
Pattern membership
Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.
Precedents cited
- Goldman Sachs 'Green Metals: Copper is the New Oil' report (April 2021)
- 2010 Queensland La Niña flood driving met coal above $300/t
Notable slides (6)
Notes
Sohn Investment Conference 2021 presentation with Einhorn's 8-minute slot — hence sparse, one-thought-per-slide pacing with speaker-notes captions underneath each slide. Argument is long-thesis on a stock, not an activist campaign: no board demands, no management criticism, no stake disclosure. Core framing is the 'selling pick-axes in a gold rush' metaphor — Teck as the overlooked copper pure-play vs crowded Freeport. Uses Elon Musk and FCX CEO Richard Adkerson quotes as *supporting* evidence (electricity demand, copper supply tightness), not as gotcha contradictions. Heavy reliance on Goldman 'Copper is the new oil' (April 2021) and Wood Mackenzie charts. Visual production is dated PowerPoint with stock clipart (prospector cartoon, Monopoly man, cha-ching, 'But wait there's more' banner) — charm is in the Einhorn voice, not the design.