Adamas Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ADMS
Kerrisdale is long ADMS: Gocovri, the only FDA-approved drug for levodopa-induced dyskinesia, plus an MS and Vimpat XR pipeline, is worth over $100/share versus ~$25 today.
Thesis
Kerrisdale is long Adamas Pharmaceuticals (ADMS), a small-cap drug maker trading near $25 despite owning Gocovri, the first and only FDA-approved treatment for levodopa-induced dyskinesia in Parkinson's patients. The market dismisses Gocovri as repackaged amantadine, but Phase 3 data show it works 30-50% better than the generic immediate-release form and addresses a $3.5 billion market. Applying precedents like Raptor/Procysbi, Acorda/Ampyra, and Jazz's $1.5bn acquisition of Celator/Vyxeos, Kerrisdale values Gocovri at $1.6bn ($65/share). Two Phase 3-ready pipeline assets — Gocovri for multiple sclerosis walking difficulties and Vimpat XR for epilepsy — add another ~$1.9bn. Summing the parts gives a risk-adjusted fair value over $100/share, four times the current price. Short interest of 33% reflects skepticism Kerrisdale believes will unwind as launch execution and pipeline data validate the platform.
SCQA
Adamas is a small-cap biotech whose lead drug Gocovri — a high-dose, extended-release formulation of generic amantadine — just won FDA approval as the only treatment for levodopa-induced dyskinesia in Parkinson's disease.
Shares trade at a 64% discount to Gocovri's standalone value, with 33% short interest, because investors dismiss it as a repackaged generic despite Phase 3 data showing 30-50% better efficacy and durable benefit.
Go long ADMS: Gocovri will reach blockbuster status in a $3.5bn US dyskinesia market, while two overlooked Phase 3-ready pipeline assets — Gocovri for MS and Vimpat XR for epilepsy — compound the upside.
Baseline (Gocovri-only) fair value is $69/share; including risk-adjusted pipeline, Adamas is worth $106/share and unadjusted $143/share — versus ~$25 today, implying roughly 4x upside.
The three reasons
- 1
Gocovri is the only FDA-approved drug for levodopa-induced dyskinesia, worth $1.6bn / $65 per share
- 2
33% short interest reflects misplaced skepticism; repackaged-drug precedents (Procysbi, Ampyra, Vyxeos) prove the playbook
- 3
MS and Vimpat XR pipeline add ~$1.9bn in unrecognized option value
Primary demands
- Market should re-rate ADMS to reflect Gocovri's commercial potential
- Recognize two overlooked Phase 3-ready pipeline assets (Gocovri for MS, Vimpat XR)
- Close the 64% discount to Kerrisdale's Gocovri-only fair value
KPIs cited
Pattern membership
Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.
Precedents cited
- Raptor Pharmaceuticals / Procysbi (delayed-release reformulation)
- Acorda Therapeutics / Ampyra (repurposed old drug, ~$500mm annual revenue)
- Jazz Pharmaceuticals acquisition of Celator / Vyxeos ($1.5bn for repackaged cytarabine+daunorubicin)
- Forest Laboratories / Namenda XR and Namzaric licensing deal
Notes
Contrarian LONG thesis from a firm best known for short reports — Kerrisdale defends a heavily-shorted (33%) name rather than attacking it. Classic sum-of-parts pharma reformulation argument built on precedent-transaction analogies (Procysbi, Ampyra, Vyxeos). PDF file appears truncated at exactly 1,048,576 bytes (1 MiB) and XRef is corrupted; pdfinfo/pdftotext fail. Content was recovered by manually decompressing content streams, so page_count could not be verified (skeleton value retained). Author not explicitly named on cover; Kerrisdale's lead analyst on ADMS was Sahm Adrangi but I did not see an explicit signature in the recovered text, so author_name left null.