Contrarian Corpus
activist conference presentation initial thesis
2023-10-01 · 23 pages

News Corporation NWSA

News Corp's REA stake alone is worth $8B of its $12B EV — separating Digital Real Estate would expose Dow Jones and surface ~50% upside to ~$33/share.

N 4 Narrative
V 3 Visual
C 3 Craft
Original source ↗

Thesis

News Corp trades at $12B enterprise value, but its 61% stake in Australia's REA Group is already worth ~$8B in the public market — implying the rest of the company (Dow Jones, HarperCollins, News Media, Foxtel, Move) is valued at only $4B, or ~4x FY24E EBITDA. Starboard argues Dow Jones alone is a higher-quality business than The New York Times Company on digital mix, subscription mix, and EBITDA margin (21% vs. 15%), yet NYT trades at >15x NTM EBITDA. At the same multiple, Dow Jones would be worth $7B+. Separating the Digital Real Estate assets (REA and Move) from RemainCo would force the market to re-rate each piece, yielding a sum-of-parts value of ~$33/share versus the ~$22 current Class B price — roughly 50% upside.

SCQA

Situation

News Corp is a $12B-EV global media conglomerate spanning Dow Jones, HarperCollins, News Media mastheads, Foxtel, and a 61% stake in Australia's leading digital real estate portal REA Group.

Complication

The $8B public value of the REA stake implies the rest of News Corp trades at just 4x EBITDA — even though its crown jewel Dow Jones is a better business than NYT, which trades above 15x NTM EBITDA.

Resolution

Separate the Digital Real Estate businesses (REA stake and Move) from RemainCo so each asset is valued on its own merits, allowing Dow Jones and the rest of the portfolio to re-rate toward peers.

Reward

A sum-of-parts value of ~$33 per share versus the ~$22 current price — roughly 50% upside, including ~$14 from REA, ~$3 from Move, ~$12 from Dow Jones, and ~$4 from the remaining assets.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    Excluding the $8B REA Group stake, News Corp's other businesses trade at just 4x EBITDA

  2. 2

    Dow Jones is a better business than NYT yet NYT trades at >15x NTM EBITDA vs. implied ~4x here

  3. 3

    Sum-of-parts value is ~$33/share vs. ~$22 current, ~50% upside from separating digital real estate

Primary demands

  • Separate News Corp's Digital Real Estate businesses (REA Group stake and Move/realtor.com) from the rest of the company
  • Re-rate Dow Jones to a premium multiple closer to The New York Times Company (>15x NTM EBITDA)
  • Surface the embedded sum-of-parts value of the portfolio to shareholders

KPIs cited

Enterprise value
$12B total News Corp EV at 7.9x FY24E EBITDA
REA Group stake value
~$8B market value based on 61% of REA's $13B market cap
RemainCo implied multiple
$4B implied EV / ~4.0x FY24E EBITDA excluding REA stake
Dow Jones revenue CAGR
13% FY18-FY23 blended, with Professional Info Services now 35% of revenue
Dow Jones EBITDA CAGR
22% FY18-FY23, margin rising from 11% to 21%
Dow Jones vs. NYT digital mix
69% digital of sub/circ revenue vs. NYT's 65%
Dow Jones vs. NYT subscription mix
78% of total revenue vs. NYT's 68%
Dow Jones vs. NYT LTM EBITDA margin
21% vs. NYT's 15%
NYT trading multiple
>15x NTM EBITDA
Dow Jones consensus FY24 EBITDA
~$475M; at 15x implies $7B+ value
REA Group revenue
$937M FY23 at 54% EBITDA margin, 10% CAGR FY15-FY23
REA share price performance
+354% Oct-2013 to Oct-2023
SOTP per share
~$33 vs. ~$22 current Class B price, ~50% upside

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Notable slides (6)

Notes

Starboard presentation at the 2023 13D Monitor Active-Passive Investor Summit (October 2023). No stake disclosed in the deck and no named villain — a 'stub' / hidden-asset SOTP thesis rather than a governance attack. Core rhetorical move: strip out the publicly-traded REA stake to expose that the rest of the company, anchored by a higher-quality Dow Jones, trades at only 4x vs. NYT's >15x. The $33/share waterfall on p.21 and the NYT peer-gap chart on p.13 are the strongest slides. No closing 'ask' slide beyond the last content page (p.21) and a plain Starboard logo (p.22-23); the ask is inferred from the separation narrative.