Contrarian Corpus
activist conference presentation proxy fight
2015-04-13 · 12 pages

E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Company DD

DuPont is a bloated conglomerate hiding $2-4bn of excess corporate costs and crony compensation; Trian's board nominees can unlock $120/share by 2017 — a 21% IRR.

N 4 Narrative
V 3 Visual
C 3 Craft
Original source ↗

Thesis

Trian argues DuPont under CEO Ellen Kullman is an underperforming conglomerate whose recent stock rally has been driven by activist pressure rather than fundamentals — EPS remains below 2011 levels and 44% of sales sit in low-growth segments. Excess corporate costs burden the portfolio by an estimated $2-4 billion, as proven by the Coatings/Axalta carveout where EBITDA jumped 68% the moment the business left DuPont and 150% by 2014 under private-equity ownership. Management compensation paid 113% of LTIP target despite bottom-quartile TSR, agriculture R&D has yielded negative returns including a $1bn Monsanto patent verdict, and the CEO herself sold 54% of her stock after Trian invested. Trian's Summary White Paper implies a $120 share price by end-2017, a 21% IRR, assuming a 9.9x blended NTM EBITDA multiple, peer-aligned margins, 2x leverage, and return of excess free cash flow — with further upside from removing corporate waste.

SCQA

Situation

DuPont is a diversified industrial conglomerate spanning Agriculture, Nutrition & Health, Industrial Biosciences, Performance Materials, Safety & Protection, and Electronics & Communications — a sprawling portfolio held together by a heavy corporate center.

Complication

EPS sits below 2011 levels, 44% of sales are in zero-growth segments, the Coatings/Axalta spin proved DuPont loaded $229m of excess costs onto one unit alone, and the Board rewards management despite 25th-percentile TSR.

Resolution

Vote the GOLD proxy card to elect Trian's four nominees, enforce best-in-class margins, strip out the estimated $2-4bn of excess corporate costs, reform compensation, and return excess free cash flow via a 10% dividend CAGR.

Reward

Trian's model implies a $120 share price by year-end 2017 — roughly a 21% IRR from current levels — with further upside as the $2-4bn of excess corporate costs is removed from the cost base.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    DuPont carries $2-4bn of excess corporate costs — Coatings EBITDA jumped >150% under new owners (Axalta)

  2. 2

    44% of sales sit in low-growth segments; recent share-price strength driven by Trian, not fundamentals

  3. 3

    Management paid 113% LTIP payout despite 25th-percentile TSR, and CEO sold 54% of her stock after Trian invested

Primary demands

  • Elect Trian's four nominees to DuPont's Board via the GOLD proxy card
  • Eliminate $2-4bn of excess corporate costs across the portfolio
  • Achieve best-in-class operating performance with peer-aligned revenue growth and margins
  • Maintain 2x net debt/EBITDA with investment-grade rating and return all excess free cash flow to shareholders
  • Grow the dividend at 10% CAGR
  • Reform compensation practices that reward management despite bottom-quartile TSR

KPIs cited

Implied target share price (2017)
$120/share, 21% IRR for shareholders
Blended NTM EBITDA multiple
9.9x assumed in Trian's valuation
Excess corporate costs
Estimated $2-4bn burdening consolidated DuPont
Coatings/Axalta EBITDA
$339m (DuPont 2011) vs $568m (Axalta S-1 same year) vs $851m (2014) — >150% improvement
EPS trajectory
$4.32 (2011) → $3.77 (2012) → $3.88 (2013) → $4.01 (2014) → $4.10 (2015E) — below 2011 levels
Stock return 12/31/08-12/31/14
266% total return, 116% coming after Trian's initial investment
Sales CAGR 2007-2014 (low-growth segments)
0% (Performance Materials, Safety & Protection, Electronics & Comms)
Adjusted PTOI CAGR 2007-2014 (low-growth segments)
2.5%, and flat ex-ethylene spreads (margin expansion only ~58bps)
Nutrition & Health EBIT margin
12.6% (2010) → 7.7% (2014), below 7-9% organic growth target
Industrial Biosciences EBIT margin
18.1% (2010) → 13.7% (2014), growth consistently below 7-9% target
Agriculture R&D spend
~$5bn over last 5 years yielded $1bn Monsanto patent verdict and $1.2bn Imprelis charges
LTIP payout 2013
113% of target despite TSR in 25th percentile of peers
2014 short-term incentive
0% corporate performance payout but 80-100% individual performance payout
CEO stock sales post-Trian investment
~54% of holdings sold (~$80m); 23% sold the week after Summary White Paper

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Precedents cited

  • DuPont's own Coatings / Axalta carveout (EBITDA jumped 68% as-reported, 150% by 2014 under new owners)

Notable slides (5)

Notes

Proxy-fight materials prepared for the 13D Monitor (Ken Squire's activist investing service) ahead of DuPont's 2015 Annual Meeting. Every page carries the 'VOTE THE GOLD PROXY CARD' footer banner — a hallmark of active solicitation. References Trian's prior September 2014 Summary White Paper and February 2015 'Referendum on Performance and Accountability' presentation (DuPontCanBeGreat.com). Slide 5 is a single red '?' over 'Management's Plan For DuPont' — a memorable rhetorical blank-slide device. Slide 10 (Axalta/Coatings case study) is the strongest piece of evidence and visual storytelling — a three-panel before/after/after comparison proving the 'excess corporate costs' thesis. No stake % disclosed in this particular document. Campaign outcome in May 2015: Trian narrowly lost the proxy fight, though DuPont later split into three companies (Dow-DuPont merger) — a de facto vindication of the breakup thesis.