Callouts & quotes from 875+ activist slides

"Certain of our key operational metrics, including estimated gross contracted customer value, are based on various assumptions and estimates we make over an extended period of time. Actual experience may vary materially from these estimates and assumptions and therefore undue reliance should not be placed on these metrics. — Sunnova S-1 Filing"

"Free cash flow growth should be a strong driver of equity valuation and sell-side analyst price targets. What we find is that Stryker's 2022E Free Cash Flow estimates have been contracting. Yet, not a single analyst has downgraded the stock, and in fact some brazen analysts claim shrinking Free Cash Flow merits a price increase and a "Buy"."

"We estimate that, at best, EPS would have been flat or modestly down without Cintas’ crafty financial and accounting gamesmanship that involved lowering its tax rate, redirecting capital towards share repurchases despite repeatedly saying it was the lowest capital priority, and lowering amortization expense for G&K service contracts."

"With the FOIA data collected from the Florida DOT indicating a -22% decline in contact awards, and ROAD's commentary that new backlog over the period that Florida revenues ramped supported higher margins, we estimate the impact to the Company's EBITDA in FY25 to be approximately $10 - $15 million or approximately 3% - 5% of EBITDA."

"To estimate 2017 revenues per program, we used the following data and estimates: 2017 revenues by school disclosed in company filings, 2017 top 15 programs by new student enrollment, Tuition data (credits to complete degree and cost per credit) obtained on schools websites where available, UNC enrollment data (from FOIA request)."

"On a periodic basis, management reviews the costs incurred to date and the estimated costs to complete for each project to determine whether the amount recognized as costs and anticipated profits in excess of billings is an accurate estimate of the amount that the Corporation has earned on its projects. — WSP 2022 Annual Report"

"Harmony’s sales are dependent on a handful of physicians, paid via a speakers program that ex-employees described as a blatant kickback scheme; one of Harmony’s top speakers estimated that he and four others he knows are responsible for 5-700 of all Wakix patients - 20-30% of total revenue depending on how one does the math"

"ENFN claims that managed service revenue increased by $1.6 million from new clients and $2.7 million from existing clients, offset by churn (which is not quantified) for a total of $4.3 million. However, total segment revenue only increased by $2.7 million. Therefore, we estimate revenue lost from churn to be ~$1.6 million."

"[T]hose quantities of oil and gas, which ... can be estimated with reasonable certainty to be economically producible ... under existing economic conditions [...] [E]conomically producible ... a resource which generates revenue that exceeds, or is reasonably expected to exceed, the costs of the operation. — SEC Definition"

"AMR uses a discount rate for certain pension obligations near 2.6%, its weighted average financing lease expense is 9.6%, and its Term-Loan interest cost is 10%. Using these range of assumptions for its incremental borrowing cost, we estimate that AMR’s “Hidden” Interest-Bearing debt obligations are $138 to $690 million."

"We identify at least four factors that are temporarily inflating OCF by an estimated 67%-78%. We also point out numerous errors and inconsistencies with management's figures. We believe at best, these are just sloppy errors, and at worst case these are intentional acts by management to obscure its strains from investors."

"When we put the pieces together, including all-time high DSOs, all-time high finished goods inventory (equating to as much as 2.6 quarters of handpieces), generally flat utilization, and a smaller than estimated procedure market size, we can only surmise that Procept and its customers are stuffed with excess handpieces."

"In the twelve months ended December 31, 2020, Inteliquent recorded revenues of USD 533 million, Gross Profit of USD 256 million, EBITDA of USD 135 million, and capex of 32 million. Adjusted for a Covid-related uplift that is considered to be temporary, revenues are estimated to have been — Sinch Acquisition News Release"

"We find it extremely suspicious that management conveniently chose to stop disclosing this number this year, just as their TAM runway is beginning to run out by our estimates, and just as product-level sales growth patterns appear to reveal sales growth has been driven by factors other than growth in the patient base."

"The liability is initially measured at fair value based on the present value of estimated removal costs... corresponding asset retirement costs are capitalized as part of the carrying amount of the solar energy system and depreciated over the solar energy system’s remaining useful life. — Sunnova (via 202110-K, p. 88)"

"The estimate of net realizable value of inventory is impacted by assumptions regarding general semiconductor market conditions, manufacturing schedules, technology changes, new product introductions and possible alternative uses, and require management to use significant judgment that may include uncertain elements."

"Heska’s market cap grew 218% from the close of the scil transaction through the end of 2020. However, despite scil adding a relatively large chunk of negative-growth, ~30% gross margin revenue and Heska consensus 2021E EBITDA estimates not changing, the implied value of scil and CVM grew 282% over just eight months."

"Lumen has not disclosed the exact prepayment amount for the $5bn in contracts (neither for 2024 nor in aggregate) but based on the company's change in FCF outlook guidance and the management comments regarding the upfront nature of cash paid in advance of construction, we estimate ~$1.3bn will be received in 2H24E."

"We believe that the FY25 revenue guidance increase earlier this month of $10 million is substantially explained by the expected contributions from the Ambry Genetics acquisition and the new Pathos/AstraZeneca deal, two factors that we estimate should have added nearly $46 million to projected revenue for the year."

"Spruce Point has serious concerns about DV’s treatment of the Zentrick deferred payment termination accounting. It recorded the lowest possible expense given its estimated range of $2.8 - $5.5 million in 2021. Yet, in early 2022 DV disclosed that it recorded a $5.6 million payment, above the high end of its range."

"The average monthly GZ 1-1 revenue would be at most only Rmb 14.7 million, less than half of the Rmb 32.9+ million draw down needed to cover the difference between our low-end estimate of the deferred revenue’s Rmb ~75 million carrying value and the Rmb 42.1 million shown on the SAIC files as at December 31, 2016."

"We estimate gross profit per system will continue to drop as the solar investment tax credit steps down over the next 2 years. Lower margins and a reduced benefit for tax equity investors look to pressure an industry which already has tight margins and relies on tax equity to support their negative cash flows."

"We estimate GLOB founders sold (or transferred) over $80m of stock in the IPO, each of the subsequent secondary offerings, and multiple open market sales. Additionally, we believe that the irrevocable trusts may not have to file its sales in the open market, making it difficult to track their current ownership"

"Kornit’s share price is effectively at the average analyst price target which is near all-time highs, yet none of the analysts have closely investigated the impact of Amazon payments and revenues tapering off, but instead anchor their estimates to management hitting ambitious long-term $500m revenue targets."

"Based on our analysis of VIE charges for services rendered, average physician hourly rates, and disclosed annual consultations, we estimate that the average physician consultation in 2022 was under five minutes, even after the introduction of mental health counseling services that generally last an hour."

"At an average sensor and transmitter revenue per patient per day of $2.00 – close to the Libre’s current level of $2.04 – Abbott would realize a gross margin of 59% on the Libre 2 (vs. our estimate of 60% today), while Dexcom would realize a gross margin of -7% on the G6 (vs. our estimate of 70% today)."

"We believe that the most recent (February 2017) MRE contains flaws similar in scope and form to those of earlier Nkran estimates. There are indications the models have been smeared, which means to overweight positive results – extrapolating them out broadly – but underweight or ignore “zero intercepts.”"

"With gross margin in excess of 70%, FIGS is starting from a position of strength and in the company of TPR (historically 70%+) and LULU (which we estimate to have merchandise margin in excess of 70%). — Barclays FIGS report, “Initiating Overweight, The Path to 10x”, Price Target: $50.00, June 21, 2021"

"Spruce Point believes that, with Penumbra U.S. Stroke revenue growth set to slow in the face of heavy competition, and with consensus peripheral thrombectomy sales expectations far too aggressive, company-wide sales growth is set to be cut almost in half from Street estimates, from FY19 through FY21."

"Spruce Point believes that, with Penumbra U.S. Stroke revenue growth set to slow in the face of heavy competition, and with consensus peripheral thrombectomy sales expectations far too aggressive, company-wide sales growth is set to be cut almost in half from Street estimates, from FY19 through FY21."

""In efforts to terminate early the Zentrick Deferred Payment Terms, the Company believes payment between $2.8 million and $5.5 million is possible, with no amount within the range being a better estimate than the amount recorded on the Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets." — Prospectus Nov 17, 2021"

"“We estimate Zillow participated in approximately 360,000 customer transactions with both buyers and sellers in 2021, which is the first time we reported this metric. We anticipate providing this metric for 2022 in a future quarter.” — Zillow 2022 10-K; “Oh, my, so much blue ocean.” — CEO Rich Barton"

"A number of KOL’s indicated why the 33% explants rate in the NANS paper actually underestimates how often Nevro’s device fails: many patients just turn the device off and don’t bother to have it surgically removed because “they don’t want to go back to their doctor because he sold them on the idea.”"

"The Company finalized the Neurio purchase price allocation during the first quarter of 2020 based upon its estimates of the fair value of the acquired assets and assumed liabilities. The finalization did not result in material adjustments to the Company's preliminary estimates. — Generac SEC filings"

"It's easy to see how Kratos has destroyed significant value. Since 2008, Kratos spent nearly $1bn on acquisitions that have contributed an estimated $801m and $129m of revenues and EBITDA, respectively. Yet, recent results suggest over $237m and $69m of sales and EBITDA losses, net of divestitures."

"Our coal reserve and resource estimates are updated periodically to reflect coal production, acquisitions and dispositions of mineral interests, new drilling, mine or geological data, and changes in regulations, market conditions or other economic factors. — Alpha Metallurgical Resources 2021 10-K"

"At the current level of g-fees and a 2.5% equity ratio, the GSEs’ guarantee business could have maintained a positive net worth while absorbing the same level of credit provisions (an accounting charge that represents an estimate of future credit losses) they incurred during the financial crisis"

"Management has collected ~$35 million dollars in performance compensation, growing at an 11% CAGR vs. organic growth CAGR of ~1%, tied to revenue and EBITDA targets while PBH has missed organic growth estimates for 4 out of 5 years and missed FCF guidance in 3 out of 5 years between 2015 – 2019."

"We also double checked the numbers from the Consumer International and Direct segment reporting, which includes the FLAWLESS acquisition. Again, FLAWLESS revenues are estimated at $7.5m - $8.2m, slightly different than $7.2m - $8.1m we previously estimated from the consolidated net sales level."

"With the same toxic combination of leverage and cash burn, we believe investors underestimate Nevro’s risk of becoming the next Nuvectra, especially if the FDA takes any action against its product, or if the OIG’s Nov 16th Special Fraud Alert on speakers programs is predictive of what’s coming."

"Further, analysis of a portion of Inteliquent's likely involvement in the routing of nationwide call traffic concerning Amazon/Apple imposter robocalls was assessed. ... approximately 450 million of these scam robocalls were estimated to be facilitated by Inteliquent. — December 2025, AG Letter"

"Assuming 5-year useful lives for the intangibles related to customer lists from the Credit Karma and Mailchimp acquisitions results in estimated 21% to 26% reductions in GAAP net income in each of the past three fiscal years and a near halving of GAAP net margins since FY 2020 from 24% to 14%."

"Assuming a conservative spherical titanium metal powder price of ~US$130/kg (vs. current estimated market pricing of ~US$200/kg), and using key operating assumptions, the TCF-1 has the potential to generate revenue of ~US$145 million and EBITDA of ~US$100 million in 2026. — IperionX (Mid-2023)"

"Based on the $250-$275 million revenue range and $1 billion estimated backlog, the business looks incredibly cheap at 0.55x revenues and 0.15x backlog which leads us to question the quality of the deal especially in light of an industry source referencing “past due invoices” from contractors."

"Step 5: TIP REIT pays a taxable dividend (at the 15% dividend tax rate to non-corporate taxpayers) to shareholders equal to its allocated portion of Target’s $16bn of retained Earnings and Profits (“E&P”), estimated to be $8bn based on the implied mid-point valuation of TIP REIT/Target Corp"

"Again, while generously assuming no lost reserves, and now allowing for the company to respond to lower prices with 20% cuts in its key cost areas such as rig day rates, horsepower for fracking, and raw materials, we estimate Pioneer's existing reserves to be worth less than $22 per share."

"If all of Premier's member owner hospitals were to demand and receive a market-rate shareback beginning in FY22 – the earliest point at which their current terms could be amended – consensus sales estimates for FY22-23 would fall by 26%, and EBITDA estimates would be cut by more than half."

"The table below showing Casino's market share versus its "Real" EBITDA (i.e., excluding our estimate of gains on sale in 2014 and 2015) strongly casts doubt on the notion that there's any relationship between Casino's present market share and EBITDA generated by selling products in stores."

"When we adjust Samsara's Adj. EBITDA calculation for incremental device cost and sales commission amortization, we estimate it to be overstated by $134 million in the past two fiscal years and that FY2023 adjusted EBITDA margin stands at -22% as opposed to the -10% reported by the Company."

"Altogether, we estimate the $25 million cash payment and tangible concessions linked to the valuable Meridian assets could over time represent a nine-figure cost in the coming years for Norfolk Southern - far exceeding the $84 million that CSX paid to hire industry legend Hunter Harrison."

"Step 6: TIP REIT pays a taxable dividend (at the dividend tax rate to non-corporate taxpayers) to shareholders equal to its allocated portion of Target’s $16bn of retained Earnings and Profits (“E&P”), estimated to be $8bn based on the implied mid-point valuation of TIP REIT/Target Corp"

"Thus, even if we assume iRhythm can achieve the low end to consensus of Wall Street analyst revenue estimates for 2026, which we doubt, applying a more appropriate 2x to 4x revenue multiple range yields approximately 40% to 70% stock price downside and material underperformance risk."

"2U is the highest valued “Cloud based SaaS” company. 2U is currently priced for perfection and we believe the stock will re-rate as downward estimate revisions come to fruition as well as the realization that the EBITDA margin profile will never mature similar to its SaaS peer group."

"Spruce Point believes current sell-side analyst price targets are wildly optimistic. The consensus estimate projects 74% upside to Generac’s share price. Almost 90% of its stock promoters have a “Buy” recommendation or equivalent. 11% are “Hold” and not a single analyst says “Sell”."

"We estimate Casino's LTM leverage ratio is 8.9x. Ideally, a company consolidating results of proportionally-owned companies has the debt spread out among the consolidated companies. That is not the case with Casino - there is a massive gap between what is owned, and what is owed."

"When compared to peers, Limbach has among the lowest NTM RPO as a percentage of estimated NTM revenue. This could imply a weaker forward revenue base, shorter project durations, or less visibility into future revenue, potentially signaling elevated revenue risk relative to peers."

"The ports business is a highly profitable business, recording margins significantly higher than the European freight business - we estimate BOL's ports business generates EBITDA margins of approximately 40%, vs. an estimate of approximately 5% for its freight forwarding business."

"WD-40’s valuation relative to its own selected peers set of specialty chemical and auto part distributors exposes its extreme valuation. Its valuation becomes even more expensive once it becomes evident that overly aggressive estimates for 2020-2021 will be difficult to achieve."

"“When the costs to manufacture the assets are greater than (predominant to) the estimated value transferred from Leasing equipment into inventory, the related cash receipt has been recorded as an inflow in net cash (used in) provided by operating activities.” — FTAI Q3 2024 10-Q"

"We believe that if our nominees are elected they can help oversee the execution of this plan and the Company can realize $300 million in profit upside over consensus EBITDA estimates, leading to a clear path to achieving $4.00 or more in earnings per share in the coming years."