Contrarian Corpus
activist conference presentation initial thesis
2014-05-05 · 111 pages

Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac FNMA / FMCC

N 4 Narrative
V 4 Visual
C 3 Craft
Original source ↗

The three reasons

  1. 1

    Reformed GSEs worth $23-$47/share vs $3.98 today — 6x to 12x upside

  2. 2

    No viable private-sector replacement: $400bn+ capital need dwarfs largest IPO ($20bn Visa)

  3. 3

    Reform delivers $240-$420bn more to taxpayers than wind-down proposals

Primary demands

  • Reform Fannie and Freddie rather than wind them down
  • End the Net Worth Sweep that diverts 100% of GSE earnings to Treasury
  • Allow GSEs to retain earnings and rebuild ~$180bn of capital to a 2.5% capital ratio
  • Wind down the Fixed-Income Arbitrage (FIA) portfolio business and cap warehouse loans at $100bn
  • Eliminate guarantees of subprime/Alt-A loans, focus solely on conventional 30-yr fixed-rate prepayable mortgages
  • Improve compensation, governance, and regulatory oversight (independent directors, restricted-stock bonuses, stress tests)
  • Treasury should monetize its 79.9% warrant position once GSEs are recapitalized rather than liquidate the franchises

KPIs cited

Combined equity market cap
~$36bn including Treasury warrants
Combined 2013 pre-tax earnings
~$39bn
Mortgage market share
~50% of outstanding U.S. mortgages, ~60% of new originations
Guarantee portfolio size
~$5 trillion of MBS
Average historical g-fee 1990-2013
22 bps; rose to 60 bps on new MBS by Q4 2013
Long-term net income earnings power
$17bn at 60bps g-fee, $29bn at 100bps g-fee
Cumulative crisis losses 2007-2011
$138bn (vs only $46bn ex-accounting provisions, $27bn ex-subprime/Alt-A)
Required incremental equity for 2.5% capital ratio
$183bn
Years to reach 2.5% capital ratio via retained earnings
10 years at 60bps g-fee, 7 years at 100bps
Total taxpayer return vs $187bn cash investment
$444-$621bn over time depending on g-fee scenario
Largest U.S. IPO ever
Visa $20bn (2008); 10 largest IPOs combined only $97bn
Required g-fee for new entrants to earn 15% ROE
200-301 bps vs current 60 bps

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Notable slides (9)

Notes

Bill Ackman's Ira Sohn 2014 presentation arguing AGAINST government wind-down of Fannie/Freddie. Unusual posture: Pershing is long the common, but the 'opponent' is U.S. Treasury/Congress/FHFA policy (the Third Amendment Net Worth Sweep) rather than corporate management. Therefore no traditional CEO villain or peer-gap framing. Uses ally quotes (Sen. Pat Toomey, credit-union groups) instead of management contradictions. Sum-of-parts is implicit: guarantee business valued separately from runoff FIA portfolio. Heavy on historical/policy education in early sections (history of GSEs, 30-yr mortgage), then SCQA-style argument on why private alternatives fail, ending with future-value table ($23-$47 per share) and taxpayer scorecard. Classic Pershing template — clean blue/burgundy/green color-coded message boxes, large bar charts.