"Assuming that Olam requires a minimum of S$100 million in cash on hand to continue operating, we believe that Olam may have to raise or refinance S$4.6 billion in debt in the next twelve months to stay solvent."
Callouts & quotes from 3,339+ activist slides
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"Since the most recent acquisition of Fleet closed in 2017 PBH’s share price has underperformed. We believe PBH will continue to underperform as headwinds result in negative organic growth and declining margins."
"GFL's capex listed through the cash flow statement does not reconcile with capex additions through the PP&E accounts. As a result, we believe capex is being capitalized on the balance sheet by at least C$41.1m"
"We believe Ms. Penrose's disappointing record as Chair of the SCR Committee and lack of relevant animal welfare, supply chain and labor practices expertise warrant her removal from the Board and SCR Committee."
"Skechers' advertising campaigns rely heavily on retired or past-their-prime sports or entertainment personalities. However, we believe these efforts do little to generate brand appeal in international markets."
"We believe Samsara is trying to give the impression that its facility visibility solutions are growing rapidly, when in fact the "non-vehicle" ARR growth is simply coming from other fleet-related applications."
"We believe that Ms. Ogilvie’s substantial business experience and financial background coupled with her extensive experience serving as a director of public companies make her a valuable addition to the Board."
"Under the failed oversight of the Board’s ESG Committee, we believe Huntsman has reactively made a carbon neutral pledge and an unfulfilled promise of TCFD reporting in order to appease institutional investors"
"Spruce Point believes Aegon’s shares present significant risk for investors. Aegon’s financial results may be primarily driven by an MLM, which is a business model which carries an above average level of risk."
"MSCI notably added Bloomberg and Moody's to its competitor list in its recent 10-K filing. Meanwhile, both the CFO and COO have downplayed any greater competition. We believe this undermines their credibility."
"We believe Rollins' recent levered purchase of Fox Pest Control for $339 million in April 2023 is a departure from its recent acquisition strategy and an indicator of challenges in customer acquisition growth."
"In order to begin addressing the operational issues raised throughout this letter, we believe Commvault should immediately initiate a comprehensive operational review (the “Operating Review”) led by the Board."
"10/24/18: HLT Q3 2018 earnings call. Reported US RevPAR of +1% falls short of expectations. While management believes this an aberration, investors react negatively to the perception of a slowing lodging cycle"
"Given how often this issue arose in our research, we believe Procept may not be fully disclosing its rental activities, perhaps because such arrangements may be indicative of difficulties closing system sales."
"We believe Enfusion’s share price is wildly overvalued and misunderstood. There are many reasons why its rich 6x revenue multiple should contract which would justify 40% - 60% downside risk to its share price."
"We believe Ms. Penrose’s disappointing record as Chair of the SCR Committee and lack of relevant animal welfare, supply chain and labor practices expertise warrant her removal from the Board and SCR Committee"
"We believe Ambry Genetics was able to significantly grow its RNA testing volumes by leveraging CPT code 81479, as evidenced by the sharp increase in Medicare revenue and reimbursement rates from 2019 to 2022."
"Darden’s massive scale, high AUV, and 100% company-operated store base should make Darden the leader in all revenue per employee categories – we believe the only reason it is not is poor corporate discipline."
"We believe that, by surveying only high-volume users, our analysis captures the behavior and sentiment of dental practitioners whose buying patterns will be most material to Align's performance going forward."
"We believe that, by surveying only high-volume users, our analysis captures the behavior and sentiment of dental practitioners whose buying patterns will be most material to Align's performance going forward."
"We believe Arconic management thinks the key to shareholders’ hearts is by returning capital. They do not understand investors. The issue is not the amount of capital invested but the returns on that capital."
"iRhythm's practice of slowly leaking out increasingly serious regulatory sanctions resulted in a gradual crescendo of bad news that we believe was orchestrated to soften the blow on the Company's stock price."
"While management has been dismissive of this threat, we believe P&G must go on the offensive with digital capabilities to stay ahead of these small but growing brands – especially in categories at higher risk"
"Trian believes GE could be worth approximately $40 to $45 of implied value per share by the end of 2017 and will seek to work collaboratively with GE’s management to help positively influence corporate events"
"What Carvana needs and its stock price implicitly discounts, is not only profitability enhancements which we believe are running out of steam, but acceleration of volume far in excess of "slight" unit growth."
"There is clear evidence that REZI has fewer engineers and fewer patents and patent pending applications since the spin-off. We believe this is a troubling development for a Company named Resideo Technologies."
"In our opinion, analysts incorrectly believe Aerojet is cheap by comparing it with overvalued “small cap” A&D peers, none of which even compete within its rocket propulsion or missile defense market segments."
"If his description of reps' role before, during, and after the implant is even half accurate, we believe Nevro is one internal whistleblower or inquisitive DOJ attorney away from its business model imploding."
"We believe Genius Sports, an overhyped revenue growth story assumed to benefit from the broader sports betting market, is facing competitive pressure and is unlikely to achieve its stated 25%+ growth targets"
"If we let the incumbent Board members and management team continue in their ways, we believe Olive Garden may become the next Red Lobster...an iconic American brand destroyed by Darden’s Board and management"
"Darden management has suggested that $60 million (a paltry 1% of the total cost pool) in savings can be achieved, but we believe this is an order of magnitude lower than what is really needed AND achievable."
"Darden's massive scale, high AUV, and 100% company-operated store base should make Darden the leader in all revenue per employee categories – we believe the only reason it is not is poor corporate discipline"
"We believe this study was used by Ambry Genetics to confirm and justify why they started doing DNA and RNA testing at the same time (concurrent testing) for people being evaluated for hereditary cancer risk."
"We believe Huntsman asked Ms. Lin to join the Board during settlement discussions with Starboard earlier this year because of her vast operating experience and knowledge of specialty chemicals and materials."
"If we let the incumbent Board members and management team continue in their ways, we believe Olive Garden may become the next Red Lobster...an iconic American brand destroyed by Darden’s Board and management"
"Darden management has suggested that $60 million (a paltry 1% of the total cost pool) in savings can be achieved, but we believe this is an order of magnitude lower than what is really needed AND achievable."
"Spruce Point believes that Xylem's acquisition of Evoqua is an implicit acknowledgement of failure towards its long-term goals for 2025 which it previously outlined at its Investor Day on September 30, 2021."
"Warning: If Oatly expects to make new product introductions into adjacent markets, we believe it won't be easy. For example, all key competitors are already marketing oat creamers at supermarkets and online."
"Spruce Point believes that, given the nature of Dropbox's contracts, customer base, and lack of developed technology, commission costs represent customer acquisition costs which should be recognized upfront."
"Spruce Point believes it is unlikely that Dropbox is a takeover target for a strategic buyer, and that it is not yet cheap enough, and would be an unusually large deal, for technology-focused private equity."
"Oklo uses “illustrative unit economics” to promote the anticipated low capital costs and cash returns... We believe there are several problems with Oklo’s unit economics which render them grossly misleading."
"If the following does not convince an investor that NQ’s YDT narrative is fabricated, then the investor is either too emotionally invested in the stock, or is gullible enough to still believe in Santa Claus."
"We believe Olam management could be using its desired net income as an input rather than an output when constructing its financials, and that the reported figures might therefore be misleading for investors."
"Why is this? Only the SONAR authors can say for sure, but we believe the likeliest explanation is a systematic attempt to misrepresent the data to make them appear more favorable to atrasentan than they are."
"We believe PGNY needs the clinics more than they need PGNY and that short, 1-year clinic contracts only increase clinic network negotiating leverage, which we believe may pressure PGNY margins going forward."
"Given the transformational shift in Sony’s gaming segment from a cyclical hardware-driven business to a recurring software-driven business, we believe this business warrants a higher valuation multiple today"
"We believe BOOT’s valuation inappropriately reflects the valuation of a fast growing, high-quality specialty retailer and lifestyle brand when in reality it is a poorly organized and governed shoe retailer."
"Spruce Point does not believe that WSP is helping its case for transparency or working to thwart tax evasion allegations by including heavily redacted corporate structure charts within its credit agreement."
"Despite what is clearly a challenging retail environment, we believe the execution of the real estate strategy outlined in the attached presentation can create meaningful and lasting value for shareholders."
"I believe that management should aim to reduce headcount to around 150,000, which is in line with Alphabet's headcount at the end of 2021. This would require a total headcount reduction in the order of 20%."
"We believe the stock is undervalued at <14x 2015 pro forma earnings. We see a path to ~$40-$45 of implied value per share by the end of 2017 and will seek to work with management to help realize this value."
"We believe MSCI should provide this information since unbilled revenue is frequently manipulated by other public companies and can provide insights into potentially aggressive revenue recognition practices."
"We believe that BLI has now begun to stuff the channel to mask a sales decline, given a sudden, unexplained shift to distributor-based revenue over the last 2 quarters, from almost nothing to half of sales."
"We believe PGNY uses its dubious outcomes data to craft a marketing message around its treatment plan that, while compelling, conflicts with the existing science and presents financial conflicts of interest"
"Spruce Point believes ShowingTime may help drive lead generation, but it comes with risks. Some consumers may use it as a "free showing". We have also heard some brokers may not use it over safety concerns."
"Nova’s ambitions to supply the U.S. with reliable antimony faces competing projects that also have government support, we believe are further progressed, and have blue chip financing and operating partners."
"The net result of these models is to value RUN Power Purchase Agreements (“PPAs”) at ~$4.75 to $5.00 / watt. We believe that a far more realistic approach would yield a value of approximately $3.65 / watt."
"Our adjusted EPS figures remove what we believe to be unsustainable benefits to EPS. After considering these adjustments, the company’s underlying organic EPS growth is performing worse than at face value."
"New unit growth is accelerating after a pause that allowed management to refocus on improving core operations. Management now believes that with the current model FDO can grow units 5-7% per year by FY2013"
"To be entirely clear, we at Bluebell Capital Partners believe that the energy transition, and achieving net-zero emissions, are among the greatest necessities (as well as opportunities) facing this planet."