32 documents showing 1–32

Jan 16, 2025

Pershing Square

Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac FNMA / FMCC

Release Fannie and Freddie from conservatorship at a 2.5% capital standard and IPO them at ~$30+/share; Treasury's warrants generate ~$300bn while shares re-rate 5-6x from ~$6 today.

N5 V4

Jan 16, 2025

Pershing Square

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac FNMA/FMCC

Fannie and Freddie have already repaid Treasury at an 11.6% IRR; releasing them from conservatorship via modest IPOs unlocks ~$300bn of warrant value for taxpayers within two years.

N5 V4

Nov 01, 2024

Land & Buildings

Public REIT sector (vs. private real estate)

Public REITs have crushed private real estate over 30 years (9.9% vs 7.0%); with institutions at GFC-low underweights and supply rolling over, listed REITs are a generational buy.

N3 V4

May 12, 2021

Greenlight Capital

Teck Resources TECK

Teck is the overlooked pick-axes play on the EV/green-electrification copper boom — QB2 doubles its copper mix and at forward-curve copper the stock is worth ~C$59, nearly double.

N4 V2

Apr 02, 2020

Spruce Point Capital

WD-40 Company WDFC

WD-40 is a promotional, no-moat lubricant company hiding a balance-sheet hole and bloated inventory behind a 28x EBITDA multiple — Spruce Point sees 55-60% downside to $75-$85.

N5 V4

Jul 24, 2019

Spruce Point Capital

Mettler-Toledo International, Inc. MTD

Mettler-Toledo's flawless EPS record masks aggressive capitalization, an empty Shanghai office, and PwC auditor conflicts — implying 30-50% downside to $410-$574 per share.

N5 V3

Jul 09, 2019

Muddy Waters

ANTA Sports Products Limited 2020.HK

ANTA used IPO proceeds to grow Shanghai Fengxian, then stripped it to insider proxies via a straw buyer in 2008 — proof of fraudulent intent toward minority shareholders.

N4 V2

Feb 22, 2019

Starboard Value

Magellan Health, Inc. MGLN

Magellan destroyed $700M of value through failed acquisitions and three 2018 guidance cuts; Starboard's six-director slate will overhaul the board and run a parallel sale process at peer multiples.

N4 V2

Dec 13, 2018

Spruce Point Capital

XPO Logistics, Inc. XPO

XPO is a United-Rentals-style roll-up masking financial strain with aggressive accounting and a felon-linked board; normalized EPS is 47% overstated, implying 40–60% downside.

N5 V3

Apr 23, 2018

Greenlight Capital

Assured Guaranty AGO

Assured Guaranty is a melting-ice-cube bond insurer aggressively returning capital it hasn't earned; Puerto Rico losses alone (2-4x reserves) will force a capital raise or strip the AA rating it needs to write new business.

N5 V2

Apr 02, 2018

Elliott Management

Commvault Systems, Inc. CVLT

Commvault, a product-respected software leader, trades at half the peer multiple because of 1,200bps of margin collapse and 20-year stale governance; a board refresh, operational review and capital return will close the gap.

N4 V2

Mar 16, 2018

Spruce Point Capital

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions KTOS

Kratos is an overhyped drone play run by executives tied to the Titan FCPA scandal; with the weakest margins in defense and a recent Director fraud indictment, we see 40%-70% downside.

N4 V3

Feb 05, 2018

Starboard Value

Mellanox Technologies, Ltd. MLNX

Mellanox insiders have sold $130M of stock across 373 trades vs. one purchase since IPO — evidence the Board lacks confidence in its own plan and must be reconstituted.

N4 V3

Sep 30, 2015

Starboard Value

Advance Auto Parts AAP

AAP trails O'Reilly and AutoZone by 800-900bps in EBITDA margins; closing the gap plus Worldpac monetization, buybacks, and multiple rerating drives AAP from $171 to over $350.

N4 V3

May 04, 2015

Pershing Square

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International VRX

Valeant is a platform compounder that traditional P/E undervalues; SOTP plus credit for ongoing M&A implies $330+/share vs $223 today, with up to $618 by 2020.

N5 V3

Apr 22, 2014

Pershing Square

Allergan, Inc. AGN

Allergan shareholders should accept Valeant's bid: Valeant is an 'Outsider'-style acquirer (25x TSR under Pearson) whose lean R&D and platform M&A will compound Val-gan's value far beyond Allergan standalone.

N5 V3

Apr 22, 2014

Marcato

Sotheby's BID

Sotheby's sits on $1bn+ of excess capital while insiders own 0.8%; Third Point's slate brings aligned ownership to drive capital return, cost discipline, and higher ROE.

N4 V3

Jan 18, 2013

TPG-Axon

SandRidge Energy SD

CEO Tom Ward's family entities systematically flipped Mississippian Lime mineral rights to SandRidge and competed for adjacent acreage—evidence of self-dealing that warrants a board investigation and potential termination.

N4 V3

Jan 06, 2012

Muddy Waters

Focus Media Holding FMCN

FMCN's bizarre acquisition of a tiny border-town ginseng plantation from its own employee is fresh evidence the 'Olympus of China' is using fake M&A to launder fake cash off its books.

N4 V1

Nov 29, 2011

Muddy Waters

Focus Media Holding FMCN

FMCN's rebuttal concedes Muddy Waters' core claims — inflated LCD network, 1,758% theater market share, phantom VIE acquisitions, and brazen insider self-dealing make the shares un-investable.

N4 V2

Nov 08, 2011

Pershing Square

Lowe's Companies, Inc. LOW

Lowe's is a cheap home-improvement duopolist whose 8% FCF yield funds a buyback worth ~40% of market cap — investors are paid to wait for the housing recovery.

N3 V3

Jul 22, 2010

Muddy Waters

Orient Paper, Inc. ONP

AMEX-listed Orient Paper is a Chinese reverse-merger fraud: tax records, shell-company suppliers, and customer interviews show revenues and profits are fabricated by orders of magnitude.

N4 V1

Jul 06, 2010

Muddy Waters

Orient Paper, Inc. ONP

ONP claimed to own its China operating company HBOP for 16 months when it didn't, and replaced 80% of its top 10 customers while growing sales 56.5% — both flag fraud.

N4 V1

Jul 01, 2010

Muddy Waters

Orient Paper, Inc. ONP

Muddy Waters reaffirms ONP is a fraud: SAIC-filed PRC financials, impossible equipment claims, and bogus acquisitions contradict ONP's SEC filings; Strong Sell.

N4 V1

Jun 28, 2010

Muddy Waters

Orient Paper Inc. ONP

Orient Paper is a fraud — revenues overstated 27x in 2008 and ~40x in 2009, assets inflated 10x, ~$30M of investor raises misappropriated; fair value under $1 vs. $8.43.

N5 V2

May 11, 2009

Pershing Square

Target Corporation TGT

Target's insular board lacks CEO-level retail, credit-card, and real-estate expertise — replace four incumbents with Pershing's slate to close the 62-point performance gap versus Wal-Mart.

N4 V3

Nov 19, 2008

Pershing Square

Target Corporation TGT

Target's land is mispriced inside a 5.8x retail multiple; a <20% IPO of 'TIP REIT' followed by a tax-free spin re-rates the real estate at REIT multiples and lifts the stock from $37 to $67 now, $80 by 2010.

N5 V3

May 21, 2008

Greenlight Capital

Lehman Brothers LEH

Lehman's $489M 1Q08 profit is accounting ingenuity — hidden CDOs, an unexplained $1.1bn Level 3 swing, and a fabricated KSK mark-up; it must recapitalize now.

N5 V2

May 21, 2008

Pershing Square

Wendy's International WEN

Wendy's is fundamentally a franchise + real estate business trading at a peer-gap discount; the Triarc merger and OpCo turnaround unlock 75-85% upside to $49-$52.

N5 V3

May 21, 2008

Greenlight Capital

Lehman Brothers LEH

Lehman is using fair-value accounting tricks to hide CDO losses and inflate Level 3 marks; the firm is over-levered, opaque, and needs to recapitalize before the Fed has to step in.

N5 V2

Nov 09, 2006

Pershing Square

Borders Group, Inc. BGP

Borders' high-quality Superstores franchise is obscured by money-losing Mall and International segments; rationalizing those while remodeling stores and buying back stock unlocks $36 vs. $21 today.

N4 V3

Jun 17, 2002

Greenlight Capital

Allied Capital ALD

Greenlight argues Allied Capital overstates NAV by mismarking illiquid BDC loans and funds its dividend with non-cash PIK income and fees from Enron-Raptor-style controlled subsidiaries.

N5 V1