Contrarian Corpus

22 documents showing 1–22

Land & Buildings 2024-11-01

Public REIT sector (vs. private real estate)

Public REITs have crushed private real estate over 30 years (9.9% vs 7.0%); with institutions at GFC-low underweights and supply rolling over, listed REITs are a generational buy.

N3 V4 C4
Greenlight Capital 2021-05-12

Teck Resources TECK

Teck is the overlooked pick-axes play on the EV/green-electrification copper boom — QB2 doubles its copper mix and at forward-curve copper the stock is worth ~C$59, nearly double.

N4 V2 C2
Muddy Waters 2019-07-09

ANTA Sports Products Limited 2020.HK

ANTA used IPO proceeds to grow Shanghai Fengxian, then stripped it to insider proxies via a straw buyer in 2008 — proof of fraudulent intent toward minority shareholders.

N4 V2 C3
Starboard Value 2019-02-22

Magellan Health, Inc. MGLN

Magellan destroyed $700M of value through failed acquisitions and three 2018 guidance cuts; Starboard's six-director slate will overhaul the board and run a parallel sale process at peer multiples.

N4 V2 C2
Greenlight Capital 2018-04-23

Assured Guaranty AGO

Assured Guaranty is a melting-ice-cube bond insurer aggressively returning capital it hasn't earned; Puerto Rico losses alone (2-4x reserves) will force a capital raise or strip the AA rating it needs to write new business.

N5 V2 C2
Elliott Management 2018-04-02

Commvault Systems, Inc. CVLT

Commvault, a product-respected software leader, trades at half the peer multiple because of 1,200bps of margin collapse and 20-year stale governance; a board refresh, operational review and capital return will close the gap.

N4 V2 C3
Starboard Value 2018-02-05

Mellanox Technologies, Ltd. MLNX

Mellanox insiders have sold $130M of stock across 373 trades vs. one purchase since IPO — evidence the Board lacks confidence in its own plan and must be reconstituted.

N4 V3 C3
Starboard Value 2015-09-30

Advance Auto Parts AAP

AAP trails O'Reilly and AutoZone by 800-900bps in EBITDA margins; closing the gap plus Worldpac monetization, buybacks, and multiple rerating drives AAP from $171 to over $350.

N4 V3 C3
Marcato 2014-04-22

Sotheby's BID

Sotheby's sits on $1bn+ of excess capital while insiders own 0.8%; Third Point's slate brings aligned ownership to drive capital return, cost discipline, and higher ROE.

N4 V3 C3
TPG-Axon 2013-01-18

SandRidge Energy SD

CEO Tom Ward's family entities systematically flipped Mississippian Lime mineral rights to SandRidge and competed for adjacent acreage—evidence of self-dealing that warrants a board investigation and potential termination.

N4 V3 C4
Muddy Waters 2012-01-06

Focus Media Holding FMCN

FMCN's bizarre acquisition of a tiny border-town ginseng plantation from its own employee is fresh evidence the 'Olympus of China' is using fake M&A to launder fake cash off its books.

N4 V1 C1
Muddy Waters 2011-11-29

Focus Media Holding FMCN

FMCN's rebuttal concedes Muddy Waters' core claims — inflated LCD network, 1,758% theater market share, phantom VIE acquisitions, and brazen insider self-dealing make the shares un-investable.

N4 V2 C2
Pershing Square 2011-11-08

Lowe's Companies, Inc. LOW

LOW trades at 13.3x depressed EPS with ~8% FCF yield — cheap

N3 V3 C2
Muddy Waters 2010-07-22

Orient Paper, Inc. ONP

AMEX-listed Orient Paper is a Chinese reverse-merger fraud: tax records, shell-company suppliers, and customer interviews show revenues and profits are fabricated by orders of magnitude.

N4 V1 C1
Muddy Waters 2010-07-06

Orient Paper, Inc. ONP

ONP claimed to own its China operating company HBOP for 16 months when it didn't, and replaced 80% of its top 10 customers while growing sales 56.5% — both flag fraud.

N4 V1 C1
Muddy Waters 2010-07-01

Orient Paper, Inc. ONP

Muddy Waters reaffirms ONP is a fraud: SAIC-filed PRC financials, impossible equipment claims, and bogus acquisitions contradict ONP's SEC filings; Strong Sell.

N4 V1 C1
Muddy Waters 2010-06-28

Orient Paper Inc. ONP

Orient Paper is a fraud — revenues overstated 27x in 2008 and ~40x in 2009, assets inflated 10x, ~$30M of investor raises misappropriated; fair value under $1 vs. $8.43.

N5 V2 C2
Pershing Square 2009-05-11

Target Corporation TGT

Target board lacks senior operating experience in retail, credit cards, and real estate

N4 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2008-11-19

Target Corporation TGT

Target trades at only 5.8x '09E EV/EBITDA while REITs trade 14.5x-35.7x — 22% of EBITDA mispriced

N4 V3 C3
Greenlight Capital 2008-05-21

Lehman Brothers LEH

Lehman is using fair-value accounting tricks to hide CDO losses and inflate Level 3 marks; the firm is over-levered, opaque, and needs to recapitalize before the Fed has to step in.

N5 V2 C1
Greenlight Capital 2008-05-21

Lehman Brothers LEH

Lehman quietly disclosed $6.5bn of previously hidden CDO exposure but took only a $200m write-down

N5 V2 C2
Greenlight Capital 2002-06-17

Allied Capital ALD

Allied appears to flout SEC fair value rules by using SBA-style accounting to overstate NAV

N5 V2 C1