Contrarian Corpus
activist full deck proxy fight
2018-10-01 · 45 pages

Campbell Soup Company CPB

Campbell's incumbent board delivered 19% TSR vs 306% S&P over 20 years; replace the entire board with Third Point's Independent Slate to unlock $52-58/share via turnaround, breakup, or sale.

N 5 Narrative
V 4 Visual
C 4 Craft
Original source ↗

Thesis

Campbell's incumbent board has overseen two decades of value destruction — 19% total shareholder return versus 306% for the S&P 500 — while squandering over $8 billion on strategic blunders including the Bolthouse Farms fresh-food disaster, overpaying $700 million for Pacific Foods, and a 'bet-the-company' $6 billion acquisition of Snyder's-Lance that left leverage above 5x with no permanent CEO. A May 2018 strategic review produced only marginal divestitures worth ~10% of EBIT, largely recommitting to the failing status quo and allegedly protecting Dorrance-family insiders over public shareholders. Third Point, partnering with Dorrance heir George Strawbridge Jr., seeks to replace the entire incumbent board with a 12-person Independent Slate to execute an operational turnaround, separate Simple Meals & Beverages from Snacks, and pursue a sale at 14-15x EBITDA implying $52-58 per share.

SCQA

Situation

Campbell Soup is an iconic 120-year-old American packaged-foods company with ~$10 billion in sales across soup, baked snacks, simple meals and beverages, anchored by the Dorrance founding family's legacy ownership stake.

Complication

The incumbent board has produced 20 years of dramatic underperformance (19% TSR vs 306% S&P), $8bn of value-destroying M&A, an accelerating soup decline (-14% last quarter), 5x leverage, and no permanent CEO after a cursory strategic review.

Resolution

Replace the entire incumbent board with Third Point's 12-person Independent Slate, which will recruit world-class leadership, execute an operational turnaround, separate Simple Meals & Beverages from Snacks, and entertain sale offers.

Reward

Comparable packaged-food transactions at 14-15x EBITDA imply a sale value of $52-58 per share — roughly 40-60% upside from the ~$37 pre-campaign stock price and restoration of ROIC from 8.5% back toward historical 20%+.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    20-year TSR of 19% vs 306% for S&P 500 — worst-in-class across every horizon (1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 10Y)

  2. 2

    Board squandered $8bn+ on acquisitions (Bolthouse, Pacific, Snyder's-Lance) and left CPB with 5x leverage and no CEO

  3. 3

    Sale at 14-15x EBITDA implies $52-58 per share versus ~$37 pre-campaign stock price

Primary demands

  • Replace entire incumbent Board with Third Point's 12-person Independent Slate at 2018 annual meeting
  • Conduct a genuine strategic review where 'everything is on the table'
  • Explore separation of Campbell into two pure-play companies (Simple Meals & Beverages; Snacks)
  • Engage with potential buyers for all or part of the Company
  • Execute operational turnaround (revitalize soup, stabilize fresh food, integrate Snyder's-Lance, simplify DSD network)
  • Recruit a permanent CEO with packaged-food expertise

KPIs cited

20-year total shareholder return
Campbell 19% vs S&P 500 306%; trails Kellogg (261%), General Mills (331%), Hershey (359%), Smucker (662%), McCormick (1,342%), Hormel (1,586%)
10-year TSR
Campbell 31% vs Hormel 424%, McCormick 323%, Hershey 220%, S&P 500 197%
5-year TSR
Campbell 2% vs McCormick 122%, Hormel 104%, S&P 500 91%
3-year TSR
Campbell (22%) vs McCormick 71%, S&P 500 65%
1-year TSR
Campbell (20%) vs McCormick 32%, Hormel 27%, S&P 500 18%
US soup sales growth
Declined every quarter from 1Q16 to 4Q18 except 2Q17 (+1%); 4Q18 down 14%
US soup market share change (52 weeks)
Campbell (2.4%), other brands +1.0%, private label +1.4%
Fresh food segment EBIT
$92m at 2012 Bolthouse acquisition to ($43m) loss in FY18
Fiscal 4Q18 growth
Organic sales (3%), Underlying Adj. EBIT (16%), Adj. EPS (50%)
Return on Invested Capital
Fell from 26.8% in FY10 to 11.8% in FY18 and 8.5% FY19E
Leverage
Over 5x net debt / EBITDA after Snyder's-Lance all-debt acquisition
Acquisition spend since 2012
Over $8 billion across Bolthouse, Plum, Kelsen, Garden Fresh, Pacific, Snyder's-Lance
Snyder's-Lance purchase price
$6bn at nearly 20x EBITDA (March 2018)
Pacific Foods purchase price
$700m in 2017, ~2% dilutive to FY18 EPS
Denise Morrison total compensation (2011-2018)
Over $60 million despite series of strategic and operational missteps
Sell-side sentiment
47% of analysts with 'sell' rating on CPB vs 5-28% for peers; price targets $31-36 (stock at $36.63)
Implied sale value
14-15x EBITDA on $1.81bn FY19E consensus EBITDA = $52-58 per share

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Precedents cited

  • 3G / Heinz (2013)
  • Heinz / Kraft (2015)
  • Conagra / Pinnacle (2018)
  • Third Point at Yahoo! (~$15bn value created, 2012-2013)
  • Third Point at Baxter (~$26bn value created, since 2015)
  • Third Point at Dow Chemical (~$51bn value created, since 2013)
  • Third Point at Sotheby's (since 2014)

Notable slides (6)

Notes

Distinctive '#RefreshTheRecipe' campaign identity built around Andy Warhol-style Campbell's soup can recast as 'INDEPENDENT SLATE' — strongest brand/visual concept seen in an activist campaign. Weaponizes interim CEO Keith McLoughlin's own 4Q18 earnings-call words ('Simply put we lost focus... we didn't have a culture of accountability') as a scathing indictment of the board he serves on. Partners with Dorrance-family heir George Strawbridge Jr., lending insider legitimacy. Proposes 12-person full-board replacement (rare full-slate attempt). No stake % disclosed in deck (disclosed in 13D filings 8.9.18 separately). No personal signature from Daniel Loeb — firm-credited only.