Contrarian Corpus
activist letter initial thesis
2024-07-15 · 5 pages

Match Group, Inc. MTCH

Match owns Tinder and Hinge yet trades at <8.5x FCF; fixing Tinder, lifting margins above 40%, and aggressive buybacks — or a sale — can unlock substantial upside.

N 4 Narrative
V 2 Visual
C 3 Craft
Original source ↗

Thesis

Starboard discloses a 6.6% stake in Match Group, the global online dating leader with ~15M payers across Tinder, Hinge and a portfolio of legacy and emerging apps generating ~$3.6B of revenue. Despite owning two premier assets, Match has lost nearly 70% since its 2020 IAC separation and now trades below 8.5x 2024 FCF, a ~45% discount to scaled tech peers. Starboard argues Tinder's product innovation gap is addressable under CEO Bernard Kim, that adjusted operating margins should expand from the mid-30s to over 40% (Match itself ran 38% in 2019 on 40% less revenue), and that the company should deploy 75%+ of >$1B of annual FCF plus ~$900M of unused leverage capacity into buybacks. If management cannot execute, the Board must objectively compare the public-company plan against a sale or take-private.

SCQA

Situation

Match Group is the global online dating leader with ~15M paying users, owning Tinder (~$2B revenue, ~50% EBITDA margins) and fast-growing Hinge inside a multi-app portfolio in a secularly growing industry.

Complication

Since the 2020 IAC spin, MTCH is down ~70%; Tinder users and payers are declining due to product stagnation, incremental EBITDA margins from 2019-24 were just 33.5%, and the stock trades at <8.5x FCF.

Resolution

Fix Tinder's product, cut G&A and consolidate platforms to push operating margins above 40%, deploy 75%+ of FCF plus ~$900M of leverage capacity into buybacks, and have the Board genuinely weigh a sale/take-private.

Reward

Starboard projects $5.50+ of FCF per share by 2026; at peer multiples (median 14.7x vs MTCH's <6x pro forma) the implied re-rating is greater than 60% upside.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    Match trades at <8.5x 2024 FCF — a ~45% discount to scaled tech peers

  2. 2

    Margins should exceed 40% but incremental margins ran only 33.5% from 2019-2024

  3. 3

    Tinder's user/payer declines are fixable product issues, not secular decay

Primary demands

  • Improve revenue growth by fixing Tinder's product innovation deficit
  • Expand adjusted operating margins to over 40% via cost rationalization and operating leverage
  • Pursue a more aggressive share repurchase program using 75%+ of FCF plus ~$900M of leverage capacity
  • Board must seriously evaluate a sale / take-private as an alternative path
  • Deliver tangible Tinder turnaround data points in the near term or consider strategic changes

KPIs cited

Stake disclosed
Starboard owns ~6.6% of Match, third largest shareholder, per 13D filed 7/15/2024
Share price performance since IAC spin (Jul-2020 to Jul-2024)
MTCH -69.5% vs Russell 1000 Tech +145.8%, Nasdaq Composite +81.2%, S&P 500 +80.2%
Valuation – Price / 2024E FCF
MTCH 8.3x vs peer set median 14.7x — ~45% discount
Valuation – Price / pro forma 2026E FCF
MTCH ~5.7x — >60% discount to peer median
Revenue scale
~$2B revenue in 2019 to expected $3.6B in 2024
Revenue growth rate
Slowed from ~20% in 2019 to ~6% expected in 2024
Adjusted EBITDA margin trajectory
38.0% (2019) → 37.4% (2020) → 35.8% (2021) → 36.1% (2022) → 36.2% (2023) → 36.1% (2024E)
Cumulative incremental adjusted EBITDA margin 2019-2024E
Only 33.5% — below consolidated margin; Starboard expects >50%
Tinder
~$2B revenue, ~10M payers, >55% of Match revenue, ~50% Adjusted EBITDA margin
Evergreen & Emerging segment
~20% of Match revenue; emerging apps expected to outpace evergreen declines starting 2025
Net leverage
Currently 2.3x vs 3.0x target; ~$900M of unused capacity available for buybacks
Free cash flow
>$1B expected in 2024; Company committed to use ≥75% of FCF for repurchases
Cost savings opportunity
$60M from technology platform consolidations cited by management
Target operating margin
>40% adjusted operating margins (vs 38% achieved in 2019)
2026E FCF per share
$5.50 or more

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Notable slides (4)

Notes

Open letter from Jeffrey Smith (Starboard Managing Member) to Match CEO Bernard 'BK' Kim and CFO Gary Swidler, accompanying Starboard's 13D disclosing a ~6.6% stake — this is the public unveiling of the campaign. Tone is notably collaborative for an activist (praises BK's gaming background and recent buyback commitment) but contains an explicit 'or else' lever: if performance does not improve the Board should examine a take-private. Letter format with three embedded charts (price performance vs indices/BMBL, peer P/FCF bar chart shown twice — second time annotated with revenue growth rates and a 2026E PF MTCH bar). Standard Starboard navy/red institutional formatting; not a designed deck. Not signed under proxy fight; classified as initial_thesis given this is the inaugural public Starboard letter on MTCH.