Callouts & quotes from 709+ activist slides

"We believe LongHorn needs to reduce the prep items that customers are not giving them credit for, and focus their labor efforts on what customers actually care about. Estimated total savings from reducing prep costs is $6.5 – $12 million"

"Across all the relevant markets, we estimate a licensing opportunity in excess of $400 million with a potential current annual run-rate of between $35-$40 million and growing based on applicable device shipments and technology adoption."

"For illustrative purposes, Spruce Point has conducted an NPV analysis of the UBS technology project. Using conservative assumptions, we estimate a project Present Value of $209 million, significantly below the $1.0+ billion+ investment."

"Generac's multiple is still elevated from its Pre-COVID expansion. Based on aggressive consensus estimates, clean energy will comprise just 7% of 2022E total revenues, not material enough to cause a wholesale re-rating of its multiple."

"Legacy MDA missed its own revenue and EBITDA estimate by a staggering $115m and $19m, respectively. MAXR also made an accounting change to boost DigitalGlobe’s sales and EBITDA, so the disappointment was even worse than we illustrated."

"Disney fails to set challenging financial performance targets (70% of annual bonus), including negative free cash flow targets in FY 2021 & 2022 and targets well below consensus estimates when comp plans for the year are made ('20-'23)"

"How convenient that management writes down contingent consideration liabilities as though it overestimated the performance of its acquisitions, while at the same time demonstrably underrepresenting their likely revenue contributions..."

"Disney fails to set challenging financial performance targets (70% of annual bonus), including negative free cash flow targets in FY 2021 & 2022 and targets well below consensus estimates when comp plans for the year are made ('20-'23)"

"As even more evidence that the asserted plasma levels are underestimated, we note a 2011 PK study (P11-3) of pitolisant in conjunction with a CYP2D6 inhibitor called paroxetine, in order to assess the effect of drug-drug interactions."

"Spruce Point highlights that FIGS materially expanded its Risk Factor language around its market opportunity in the recent 10-K. Of notable concern, FIGS now warns it has "not independently verified" any market opportunity estimates."

"At an 8.0x valuation multiple, the non-HDD business valuation is JPY 888 billion, and when combined with the HDD business at 7.5x, our total estimate for enterprise value is JPY 1,420 billion or a combined EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.7x."

"We estimate MCY's exposure to the Pacific Palisades is significant as it insured 385 homes and wrote 31 landlord policies. Our analysis shows MCY will incur at least $934 million in homeowner policy losses from the Pacific Palisades."

"We believe that the Merial-based estimate is most applicable to PetIQ, given that pet owners cannot take their pets into Walmart, making PetIQ wellness centers more like stand-alone wellness centers than Banfield’s in-store clinics."

"We do not believe NQ can evade liability for these statements - it is clear to us that NQ deliberately materially misrepresented market share to investors, regardless of whether the estimates came from third parties that NQ engaged."

"Even assuming that service segment SG&A as a % of sales remains flat through the coming years likely underestimates the costs which PetIQ is likely to incur through the wellness center build (new store opening costs in particular)."

"We estimate that Zillow's Adj. EBITDA growth since 2017 is comprised entirely of stock-based compensation. Zillow adds back stock-based compensation to Adj. EBITDA as a non-cash cost but uses cash to repurchase stock from dilution."

"Adding a conservative $20 million in estimated cash legal fees incurred to date for this complex international litigation yields an ROIC that, while still impressive, is over seven times smaller than the 3,278% that Burford claims."

"Management plans to use all free cash flow after dividends to repurchase stock and will increase leverage to 1.8x Lease Adjusted Net Debt / EBITDAR from 1.6x. We estimate share repurchases will be ~$10bn to $13bn from 2012 to 2015"

"After backing out the value of publicly traded MLP interests and the estimated value of other non-refining businesses, Marathon's current trading price implies a significant discount to the trading value of merchant refining peers"

"We estimate that more aggressive tax maneuvers (i.e. discrete items) by BR in FY 2022 resulted in approximately $20.6 million of cash flow benefits. We believe there are long-term limits to how much lower BR can push tax benefits."

"Our estimates are significantly below the Street in 2022. We also eliminate all the "noise" of Stryker's adjustments, which we believe are covering-up financial strains and allowing results to rapidly diverge from GAAP financials."

"With a ~$30 billion purchase price, Celgene’s pipeline destroys shareholder value when using the median of Wall Street analysts’ estimates for 2028 Celgene pipeline revenue and a similar discount for earlier-stage pipeline assets"

"We estimate that, when the effects of acquisitions and foreign exchange of acquisitions and foreign exchange movements are removed, Amdocs organic revenue contracted on an annual basis on average over all quarters since Q1 2014."

"Absent M&A, FX impacts, and the beneficial effects of ASC 606 (discussed later), Spruce Point estimates that Verint would have seen top-line contraction, as opposed to the high-single-digit top-line growth reported by management"

"Absent M&A, FX impacts, and the beneficial effects of ASC 606 (discussed later), Spruce Point estimates that Verint would have seen top-line contraction, as opposed to the high-single-digit top-line growth reported by management"

"Similar to Amcor’s merger with Bemis, WestRock acquired KapStone in January 2018 in a $5 billion dollar deal. Since announcing the acquisition, shares have fallen over [50%] from continued revenue misses vs. analysts’ estimates."

"We estimate that Nova’s share price has near-term downside risk of approximately 45% - 60% ($2.50 - $3.50 per ADS), but under certain scenarios, including a potential loss of a $43.5m Department of War award, up to 100% downside"

"Based on our estimated reported dairy farm construction costs, these estimates suggest that since going public, Huishan has overstated average dairy farm CapEx by one third (~RMB 29 million) to over one half (~RMB 54 million)."

"Absent these extreme, and often repeated restructuring measures, Spruce Point estimates AVY’s Adjusted Free Cash Flow would be approximately $265m, or a 13% decline from 2019 – continuing its multi-year cash flow contraction."

"Absent these extreme, and often repeated restructuring measures, Spruce Point estimates AVY's Adjusted Free Cash Flow would be approximately $265m, or a 13% decline from 2019 – continuing its multi-year cash flow contraction."

"Approximately 52% of e-commerce Sales is Retargeting, with Incrementality of Only ~25%-35%. We Estimate Q1 2025 Churn is ~23%. APP’s Code Evidences its Business is Built on Systematically Violating Third Party Platforms’ TOS."

"Enfusion's Audit Chairman was the Chief Accounting Officer and Controller at General Electric when the SEC slammed it with a $200 million penalty for misleading investors related to costs, receivables and financial estimates."

"The top 15 institutional holders account for less than 30% of Momo's diluted shares outstanding. Notably absent from this list are technology focused investors. We estimate that a majority of Momo owners are retail investors"

"We believe S&P's methodology significantly understates the amount. Our proportional lease adjusted debt calculation as of FY 2014 is €15.6 billion. We estimate that the LTM lease adjusted debt has blown out to €17.7 billion."

"We estimate the structural potential margin of ADP's various sub-segments by analyzing the segments' underlying economic characteristics (scale, market position) and performance relative to direct and/or related competitors"

"Greenlight believes that Allied may be using the tax definition rather than the GAAP definition of realized losses. Greenlight estimates that Allied has deferred over $65 million in charge-offs by not following this method."

"TWX should have more actively pursued such discussions or other transactions with the WB at an earlier date to mitigate the meaningful annual losses from the network (estimated to be approximately $50-75 million for 2005E)."

"Based on Beijing Mushang Culture's revenues, we estimate that talent agencies likely represented a little less than half of Live Video in 2017, despite management statements about agents being insignificant to the business."

"As we will illustrate, Stryker has materially missed its Capex estimates in what appears to be an attempt to defer spending. If we normalized Capex for this underspending, 2020 and 2021 FCF would be -$163m and -$125m lower"

"Spruce Point believes projections from “all other customers” ex: Baker Hughes embedded in sell-side estimates are simply too high given significant employee turnover across verticals and regions, and our backlog analysis."

"We cannot find any record of Saputo providing EBITDA figures for Argentina. However, we can now estimate Argentina's margins with the insights from Saputo's obscured Australian financial filings through a numbered entity."

"By conducting a realistic sum-of-parts valuation of MSCI's business segments, we estimate 55% - 65% downside risk ($190 - $244 per share) and expect MSCI to underperform the S&P 500 and its own relevant benchmark indices."

"At the moment, there are not many analysts offering projections on VFC. Spruce Point estimates are materially higher than whisper numbers that we have heard Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are using for Vets First Corp."

"Under current loan commitments and projected financing needs given consensus sales growth estimates, Carvana will exceed its current borrowing capacity by ~$1B by FY 2020. This deficit would increase to $2.5B in FY 2021."

"Spruce Point believes the current consensus estimates incorporate significant improvement in revenue since the deal was announced on Jan 23rd (either through fundamental improvements and/or aggressive revenue synergies)."

"We estimate that Twist sells to Ginkgo at 1.5 cents per base pair, and experts indicate that the cost to manufacture is “probably 9-10 cents at this point,” which by our math comes out to a gross margin of negative 533%."

"WD-40 has significant unsold inventory and slackened demand it must deal with before it will see any benefit from lower crude prices. We estimate it could be upwards of 6 months out before there is any potential benefit."

"We use the annual change in sales reported under multiple performance obligations, and apply a range of percentages to this figure to estimate the revenue booked upfront from Axon’s aggressive revenue recognition policy."

"EHTH uses a misleading large customer pool as the denominator. The company adds New Paying Members to Estimated Members, which does not make sense, as it ignores the customers dropping out over the course of the quarter."

"For 2025, we estimate the ODR segment will generate low-single digit organic growth combined with over $100 million in incremental revenue between the Pioneer Power, Consolidated Mechanical, and Kent Island acquisitions."

"By consolidating Hulu and Disney+ into one product and organization, Disney may improve per subscriber unit economics and realize cost efficiencies that Wall Street research analysts estimate could amount to ~$1 billion"

"By consolidating Hulu and Disney+ into one product and organization, Disney may improve per subscriber unit economics and realize cost efficiencies that Wall Street research analysts estimate could amount to ~$1 billion"

"We estimate that, assuming management has tolerance for conservative leverage, Amdocs has sufficient debt capacity to grow sales by 2.9% annually over three years via acquisitions even if it records 0% organic growth."

"The market appears to lack confidence in Disney’s $7.5 billion cost reduction plan; Wall Street consensus estimates for FY 2024 and FY 2025 are now lower than they were when the commitments were made in February 2023."

"With so little transparency on the paint store business, investors don't know what PPG's returns on capital are. Trian estimates that “Base Case” after-tax returns are likely about triple the company's cost of capital"

"Curiously, we see that in the footnote to its financial statements, UEC has been rapidly increasing its estimate for Asset Retirement Obligations from $29 to $89 million within seven months of closing the transaction."

"The market appears to lack confidence in Disney’s $7.5 billion cost reduction plan; Wall Street consensus estimates for FY 2024 and FY 2025 are now lower than they were when the commitments were made in February 2023."

"If one adjusts Carvana's ~$2,900 non-GAAP retail GPU reported in 2H23 to account for these definitional differences, we estimate the comparable metric would be ~$2,300, remarkably similar to CarMax, as shown below."

"Given its high insider ownership, if Dillard's maintains its free cash flow and share repurchase levels, then at the current stock price we estimate it would buy back nearly its entire float in the next five years"

"So, we can tabulate the press releases to estimate enterprise bookings. You might not think this qualifies as deep research but none of the sell side analysts have written about this and the results are revealing."