Callouts & quotes from 166+ activist slides

"And the class of '20 and class of 2021 are the best class of stores we've ever opened. — CFO Lang, GS Conf. Sept 8, 2022; And so that's part of the reason our CapEx costs are going up is because we're doing more of that. — CFO Lang, Stephens Conf. Dec 2, 2021; Based on challenging macroeconomic conditions, our class of 2022 and class of 2023 new stores are estimated to be below these targets. — 2023 10-K, Feb 22, 2024; We expect about 25% to 30% of our planned 2024 new warehouse store openings could be in smaller format stores. — Q4'23 Conf Call, Feb 2024"

""DIS’s stepped-up Parks investment has the potential to drive significant returns, however investors likely need more insight into how DIS intends to allocate this capital across its resorts and cruise lines to factor this upside potential into estimates and valuation." — Goldman Sachs, September 2023; "Following the announcement, Disney’s shares are down ~3.5% intraday. Since it will take time before DIS sees the EBIT benefit from higher DPEP capex, we suspect investors are concerned about the potential near-term pressure to FCF." — Citi, September 2023"

"“DIS’s stepped-up Parks investment has the potential to drive significant returns, however investors likely need more insight into how DIS intends to allocate this capital across its resorts and cruise lines to factor this upside potential into estimates and valuation.” — Goldman Sachs, September 2023; “Following the announcement, Disney’s shares are down ~3.5% intraday. Since it will take time before DIS sees the EBIT benefit from higher DPEP capex, we suspect investors are concerned about the potential near-term pressure to FCF.” — Citi, September 2023"

""In the first quarter of 2020, we adopted, using the modified retrospective approach, amended accounting guidance that required credit losses on financial instruments, including trade receivables, to be measured based on an expected credit loss model instead of the incurred loss model. The expected credit loss model requires us to consider forward-looking information to estimate our allowance for credit losses. Our adoption of this guidance did not have a material impact on our financial position, results of operations or cash flows." — 2020 10-Q, p. 6"

"The discretionary components of our business, which are the most affected by general economic conditions, have been challenged by cautious consumer spending on big ticket items like swimming pools and outdoor living projects resulting in sales of building materials declining 11% for the year compared to the same period in 2023. We now believe that new pool units could be down 15% to 20% in 2024, and remodeling activity for 2024 may be down as much as 15% compared to our previous estimate of flat to down 10% compared to 2023. — Pool Corp Press Release"

""At current valuation levels, by simply marking to market the value of non-refining businesses, we estimate one can create the MPC refining business for effectively free before even incorporating the upside from IMO 2020." — Goldman Sachs, March 19, 2019; "We see discounted value in MPC with the stock trading in line with many of its peers on 2020 EBITDA despite its corporate structure with retail and midstream deserving a premium. However, debate has centered on investors' confidence in MPC's earnings achievability." — Morgan Stanley, May 9, 2019"

"Ending Q1 2011, there were 33 Patches that had above $2,000 per month in revenue. Ending Q4 2011, there were 401 Patches above $2,000 per month in revenue.... We arrived at our cost estimates for Patch of $160 million in 2011 based on the following statement by the Company's Chief Financial Officer at the AOL Investor Day on June 16, 2011: '... we're going to spend $160 million a year this year on Patch....' Further, in a research report published on May 10, 2012, Barclays estimated that Patch generated EBITDA losses of $151 million in 2011."

"The biggest controversy from last night's Disney F4Q 2022 earnings call was management guidance that FY 2023 segment EBIT would grow in the high single digits vs. consensus growth of +25% and our own estimate of +34%. Rarely have we ever been so incorrect in our forecasting of Disney profits. Given the company's confidence that Parks trends appear resilient, it appears that the culprit for the massive earnings downgrade is much higher than expected DTC losses and significant declines at Linear networks. — MoffettNathanson, November 9, 2022"

""The Company’s loss reserve committees estimate expected loss to be paid for all contracts by reviewing analyses that consider various scenarios with corresponding probabilities assigned to them. Depending upon the nature of the risk, the Company’s view of the potential size of any loss and the information available to the Company, that analysis may be based upon individually developed cash flow models, internal credit rating assessments, sector-driven loss severity assumptions and/or judgmental assessments" — AGO 10-K, February 23, 2018"

""On May 4, 2020, we completed the divestiture of the Security & Detection Systems and MacDonald Humfrey Automation solutions business ("airport security and automation business") to Leidos, Inc. for $ 1 billion (net cash proceeds of $ 950 million after selling costs and estimated purchase price adjustments), subject to final customary purchase price adjustments as set forth in the definitive sale agreement, and recognized a pre-tax loss of $26 million during the quarter ended July 3, 2020." — L3Harris Q1 2020 10-Q"

"The discretionary components of our business, have been challenged by cautious consumer spending on big ticket items like swimming pools and outdoor living projects resulting in sales of building materials declining 11% for the year compared to the same period in 2023. and We now believe that new pool units could be down 15% to 20% in 2024, and remodeling activity for 2024 may be down as much as 15% compared to our previous estimate of flat to down 10% compared to 2023. — Pool Corp Warning, June 24, 2024"

"In late 2011, fraud researcher Jon Carnes, who has among the best track records in the industry in identifying irregularities with China-based companies, issued a report on Silvercorp that alleged, among other things: The company’s technical reports were based on a 2-man team that used resource estimates provided by Silvercorp and who hadn’t visited the site in years. The quality and resource estimates of its mines were overstated. That a related-party transaction had enriched a relative of CEO Rui Feng."

"I would categorize Dropbox revenue growth as mid-growth (~20% YoY top-line growth). The interesting part is in the net income and free cash flow. The Company has guided to $1.6 billion revenue in FY19. If we apply a 20% growth rate to FY20, that would imply a ~$1.9 billion revenue. If we take management estimates of $375m of free cash flow, it would imply ~20x forward EV/FCF, below high growth profitable peers that routinely trade at 50x EV/FCF. — Seeking Alpha, "Finding Value in SaaS, Jan 2020"

""We have reviewed the procedures used by the Board of Directors in arriving at its estimate of value of such investments and have inspected underlying documentation, and, in the circumstances, we believe the procedures are reasonable and the documentation appropriate." — Arthur Andersen LLP (previous audit language). "[W]e have written that we believe these allegations are unfounded and uninformed and have attempted to produce as much factual rebuttal as possible." — Merrill Lynch report."

"Other expenses that are not directly attributable to a particular segment are based upon allocation methodologies, including time estimates, revenue, headcount, sales targets, data center consumption and other relevant usage measures. Due to the integrated structure of MSCI's business, certain costs incurred by one segment may benefit other segments. A segment may use the content and data produced by another segment without incurring an arm's-length intersegment charge. — MSCI SEC filings"

"The Company stated that: "Ending Q1 2011, there were 401 Patches above $2,000 per month in revenue..." We arrived at our cost estimates for Patch of $160 million in 2011 based on the following statement by the Company's Chief Financial Officer at the AOL Investor Day on June 16, 2011: "...we're going to spend $160 million a year this year on Patch..." Further, in a research report published on May 10, 2012, Barclays estimated that Patch generated EBITDA losses of $151 million in 2011."

"“Basic PK – since the half-life of Pitolisant is approximately 20 hours about half the drug levels will be circulating when the 2nd dose is administered so this is added to the new peak plasma levels on Day 2, and again on day 3, day 4 etc., until steady state plasma levels are reached... Thus, the QTcT study is intentionally misleading, and the statements made about safety margins are therefore overestimated and incorrect.” — Pharmacology consultant engaged by Scorpion Capital"

"Third, the transaction structure will result in the stock being listed on two major global exchanges, the NYSE and the ASX. And through these listings, we expect there will be greater liquidity for investors as the market capitalisation of the combined company, which we estimate at US$17 billion, is expected to qualify for inclusion in the US S&P500 index, while the Australian listed shares will also continue to be included in the ASX 200 index. — CEO Dalia Deal Call Aug 2018"

"A good estimate would be 2 out of 10 RFPs that we're involved in on a clinical research organization with large pharma customers; they are involved. What Berkeley Lights is doing is very niche, so you don't see a lot of players coming in wanting to play in that segment, you don't see a lot of webinars about them, you don't see them speak at conferences, you don't really see Berkeley Lights attending those conferences or engaging them at that level. — IQVIA executive"

"The purchase price for this acquisition totaled $92,678. The remaining amount consists of a contingent consideration of $3,004 which is contingent upon meeting certain performance metrics. Since the initial purchase price allocation was estimated, contingent consideration has been reduced by $4,000 and trade and other payables have increased by $650 and those adjustments have been reflected as an adjustment of $3,350 to goodwill. — Nuvei Q2'21 Financials, p.9"

"their prices are higher than what we pay for our own planes that we contract privately. ... I estimate it's around $7500 to $8500 per hour. — One of the top liver transplant surgeons in the world, based at a leading Midwest academic center. ... a much more reasonable price because it’s not associated with OCS. ... they’re not buying the jets…they’re using charters just like we use currently. — Cardiac transplant surgeon at a major Midwest academic center"

""Moving on to China, first quarter volume points increased 17% compared to the previous year. As stated previously, this was primarily driven by volume in the month of March, which was pull[ed] forward ahead of our 5% price increase effective April 1. We estimated that this impact to be approximately 40 million to 45 million volume points, which will lead to a lower than previously planned second quarter for China." — John DeSimone, CFO (May 4, 2017)"

"We also expect to have lower equity earnings associated with the ULA business as a result of the number and mix of launches expected in 2019 compared with 2018.... The largest single item that is driving the margin reduction next year, though, is actually our ULA equity earnings. Those are actually going – we expect those to be down nearly $150 million or so from this year's estimate of the equity earnings from ULA. — LMT Q3'18 Conf Call"

"“...we got to the latter part of January and spent a good part of February trying to figure out what the heck was going on and what we had to do.” — Dave Cote, Executive Chairman; “In short, we screwed up... We significantly underestimated the magnitude of the material and freight inflation...” — Robert Johnson, CEO; “Some of you may be wondering why I don't get more involved. The answer is, I have...” — Dave Cote, Executive Chairman"

""Yes, we will help broadcasters to become popular. We estimate about 10% of the revenue of Momo is from this type of activity. Sometimes we will pay this cost to help a broadcaster." — Super Agency #6; "We have to. This is just the same as Taobao fake sales. Everyone does it. Each month about 10-20% of our revenue is us spending money on broadcasters. We share the loss equally with the broadcaster." — Large Agency #11"

"Rentokil Initial and Terminix are significant players in the attractive, non-cyclical and growing pest control industry. The global pest control market, estimated to be worth c.US$22bn in 2020 (51% in North America, 20% Europe, 21% Asia), has delivered a total market CAGR of 4.7% over the last five years and is estimated to grow at between 4.5% and 5%+ over the medium term. — Terminix and Rentokil Deal Press Release"

"“The Company periodically provides customer incentive programs including product discounts and volume-based rebates, which are accounted for as reductions to revenue in the period in which the revenue is recognized. These reductions to revenue are made based upon reasonable and reliable estimates that are determined by historical experience and the specific terms and conditions of the incentive.” — Kornit 2016 20-F"

"We are a leader in a large, fast-growing and underpenetrated market with significant tailwinds. Based on the Company Data Analysis, we estimate that the total addressable market for our core solutions was approximately $13 billion globally in 2020 and was less than 25% penetrated and is expected to grow to approximately $20 billion by 2025 with less than 50% penetration. — DoubleVerify Prospectus Sept 22, 2020"

"“We note that Alcoa acquired Firth Rixson in November 2014 for a purchase price of $2.85 billion, which compares to our estimated EBITDA exit rate for 2015 of $190 million. Alcoa thus far has not backed away from guidance of $1.6 billion in sales and $350 million in EBITDA for 2016; however, we believe these targets are not attainable and are modelling much lower growth rates.” — Credit Suisse, March 10, 2016"

"Purchase price allocations for 2021 acquisitions were based on preliminary valuations, primarily related to intangible assets, product liabilities and deferred income taxes. Our estimates and assumptions are subject to change within the measurement period. The purchase price allocations for Wright, OrthoSensor and other 2020 acquisitions were finalized in 2021 without material adjustments. — Stryker 2021 10-K"

"CEO Demarco Q3'16: “At these estimated production levels, we believe the potential market opportunity for Gremlin type aircraft is in the high several hundreds of millions of dollars up into billions of dollars” — Eric DeMarco. CEO Eric DeMarco: “It is very competitive, I am sorry, I did not talk about it in the script and I am not talking about it anymore. It's focus time. So, I apologize.” — Eric DeMarco."

""Also, substantially all of our servers are tested and assembled in our facilities, and more than half of our final server and storage production is completed in San Jose, California." — SMCI Disclosure; "Revised DIGITIMES estimates suggest that the server market shipments growth could decelerate to 4.3% in 2023 (revised from 5.2% previously) after posting an expansion of 6.1% in 2022" — DIGITIMES Research"

"In a research note on Friday, Forsyth Barr analysts Matt Montgomerie and Andy Bowley said the performance of Fonterra's Chile business continued to improve, with annual profit before interest and tax of $92m - more than double the $42m in 2020. The analysts valued the Chile business at $840m, which is seven times its estimated $120m profit before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (ebitda)."

"U.S. in 2013, we estimate that the construction of green buildings will be roughly about 45% of the total constructions of commercial buildings. In '16, it will increase to about 55%, 60%.... So as you can see, very, very well positioned within our Building & Construction Systems to, how could I say, capture the U.S. market recovery, right, in the next 3 years. — Olivier Jarrault, 2013 Investor Day"

"Contract and customer acquisition costs, consisting primarily of sales commissions, are incremental and recoverable costs of obtaining a contract. These costs are capitalized using the portfolio approach and are amortized over the expected period of benefit, which is the estimated life of the technology (determined to be approximately 7 years) provided in the underlying contract. — PWSC FY23 10-K"

""The 071 hit the ground running and we're getting great feedback. And we estimate that we're somewhere around 15% of this market already, well ahead of our plans. We see ourselves getting to 25% by the end of the fiscal year and we think we'll eventually get to 50% of this aspiration market." — Geoffrey Martha, Executive Vice President and President of Restorative Therapies Group, Medtronic"

""The estimates of market opportunity and forecasts of market growth included in this prospectus may prove to be inaccurate. Market opportunity estimates and growth forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty and are based on assumptions and estimates that may not prove to be accurate, including as a result of any of the risks described in this prospectus." — FIGS IPO Prospectus, p. 52"

"Auditing the Company's estimates of accrued receivables and the related accrued claims payable was complex and required significant judgment as the estimates were sensitive to changes in the significant assumptions, including management's assumptions regarding the lag between authorization date and service date, service changes and cancellations. — PGNY FY2021 10-K"

""Each black dot in the chart represents an automotive securitization market transaction completed in 2018. The black line is the best-fit line of the individual transactions in the chart. The blue line represents the historical and current best estimates of future performance for all loans originated on Carvana's website." — November 2018 Investor Day Presentation"

"We involved data specialists to assess management's estimate on reserve rates by recalculating historical reserve rates across multiple fiscal periods. We compared our independently developed historical reserve rates with the reserve rates used by management to evaluate management's ability to accurately estimate excess and obsolete inventory. — 2022 10-K"

"Certain of our key operational metrics, including estimated gross contracted customer value, are based on various assumptions and estimates we make over an extended period of time. Actual experience may vary materially from these estimates and assumptions and therefore undue reliance should not be placed on these metrics. — Sunnova S-1 Filing"

"On a periodic basis, management reviews the costs incurred to date and the estimated costs to complete for each project to determine whether the amount recognized as costs and anticipated profits in excess of billings is an accurate estimate of the amount that the Corporation has earned on its projects. — WSP 2022 Annual Report"

"[T]hose quantities of oil and gas, which ... can be estimated with reasonable certainty to be economically producible ... under existing economic conditions [...] [E]conomically producible ... a resource which generates revenue that exceeds, or is reasonably expected to exceed, the costs of the operation. — SEC Definition"

"In the twelve months ended December 31, 2020, Inteliquent recorded revenues of USD 533 million, Gross Profit of USD 256 million, EBITDA of USD 135 million, and capex of 32 million. Adjusted for a Covid-related uplift that is considered to be temporary, revenues are estimated to have been — Sinch Acquisition News Release"

"The liability is initially measured at fair value based on the present value of estimated removal costs... corresponding asset retirement costs are capitalized as part of the carrying amount of the solar energy system and depreciated over the solar energy system’s remaining useful life. — Sunnova (via 202110-K, p. 88)"

"With gross margin in excess of 70%, FIGS is starting from a position of strength and in the company of TPR (historically 70%+) and LULU (which we estimate to have merchandise margin in excess of 70%). — Barclays FIGS report, “Initiating Overweight, The Path to 10x”, Price Target: $50.00, June 21, 2021"

""In efforts to terminate early the Zentrick Deferred Payment Terms, the Company believes payment between $2.8 million and $5.5 million is possible, with no amount within the range being a better estimate than the amount recorded on the Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets." — Prospectus Nov 17, 2021"

"“We estimate Zillow participated in approximately 360,000 customer transactions with both buyers and sellers in 2021, which is the first time we reported this metric. We anticipate providing this metric for 2022 in a future quarter.” — Zillow 2022 10-K; “Oh, my, so much blue ocean.” — CEO Rich Barton"

"The Company finalized the Neurio purchase price allocation during the first quarter of 2020 based upon its estimates of the fair value of the acquired assets and assumed liabilities. The finalization did not result in material adjustments to the Company's preliminary estimates. — Generac SEC filings"

"Our coal reserve and resource estimates are updated periodically to reflect coal production, acquisitions and dispositions of mineral interests, new drilling, mine or geological data, and changes in regulations, market conditions or other economic factors. — Alpha Metallurgical Resources 2021 10-K"

"Further, analysis of a portion of Inteliquent's likely involvement in the routing of nationwide call traffic concerning Amazon/Apple imposter robocalls was assessed. ... approximately 450 million of these scam robocalls were estimated to be facilitated by Inteliquent. — December 2025, AG Letter"

"Assuming a conservative spherical titanium metal powder price of ~US$130/kg (vs. current estimated market pricing of ~US$200/kg), and using key operating assumptions, the TCF-1 has the potential to generate revenue of ~US$145 million and EBITDA of ~US$100 million in 2026. — IperionX (Mid-2023)"

"“When the costs to manufacture the assets are greater than (predominant to) the estimated value transferred from Leasing equipment into inventory, the related cash receipt has been recorded as an inflow in net cash (used in) provided by operating activities.” — FTAI Q3 2024 10-Q"

"Source: Morgan Stanley & Co. estimates as provided to Greenlight in April 2014 and Greenlight calculated adjustments to Morgan Stanley & Co. estimates. Greenlight's adjustments to Morgan Stanley's methods, factors, and calculations were in the sole discretion of Greenlight."

"Ms. Roll responded that the trading market was thin and not representative of where willing buyers and sellers would discover value. Based on its own analysis of Loewen's situation, Allied had concluded that its internally estimated premium valuation was appropriate."

"We prepared the estimates of reserves which were audited by MM&A, and MM&A reviewed our methodology, assumptions and reserve factors utilized in calculations...MM&A relied on their independent pro-forma economic analysis for ultimate reserve determination — 10-K p.48"

""Using the S&P 500 Index as a proxy for the global equity markets, we estimate that a 100-point change in the value of the S&P 500 Index, sustained for one year, would impact... fully diluted earnings per common share by $0.03 to $0.05" — BK 2011-2014 Annual Reports"

"In our discussions with intermodal experts and shipping brokers, the common estimate was that the ceiling on intermodal prices – usually about 20% lower than OTR – was about half a function of time and half due to reduced reliability and flexibility. — Footnote 9"

"In 2013, we anticipate an operating expense reduction of approximately $150 million over our estimated 2012 levels, with benefits beginning to be reflected in Q1 and the majority of the reduction occurring in the second half of 2013. — Q2'12 Juniper earnings call"

"This view is captured in an October 23rd note from Morgan Stanley which estimated only 1%-3% of all incremental US data center power capacity (~2-5 GWe) through 2035 would be provided by SMRs. — Morgan Stanley, A Nuclear Renaissance for SMRs, October 23, 2024."