182 documents showing 121–180

Nov 28, 2016

Greenlight Capital

Bayer AG BAYN

Bayer at €88/11x trades in no-man's land between Monsanto deal-sceptics and deal-believers; whether the merger closes or breaks, Bayer shareholders get cake.

N5 V3

Aug 25, 2016

Muddy Waters

St. Jude Medical, Inc. STJ

St. Jude's $23B cardiac-device franchise rests on a Merlin ecosystem so insecure that hackers can crash pacemakers from 50 feet — a recall and two-year remediation imply 50%+ downside and likely covenant breach.

N5 V2

Jul 20, 2016

Pershing Square

Herbalife HLF

The FTC's July 2016 Herbalife complaint and forced restructuring vindicate Pershing's pyramid-scheme short thesis; normalized EPS collapses to $1.42–$2.22, far below the ~$65 share price.

N5 V3

Mar 08, 2016

Muddy Waters

Casino Guichard-Perrachon SA CO

Casino's claimed France recovery is fiction: Mercialys property gains inflate EBITDA, suppliers are being stretched, and the CFO's earnings-call language shows deception clusters.

N5 V1

Nov 16, 2015

Elliott Management

American Capital, Ltd. ACAS

American Capital trades at 71% of NAV under a long-tenured board; Elliott urges shareholders to reject management's self-entrenching spin-out and force a strategic review for 24-63% upside.

N5 V4

Nov 16, 2015

Greenlight Capital

CONSOL Energy CNX

Market prices CONSOL as a dying coal miner, but its Marcellus/Utica shale gas acreage plus disciplined management make it worth $35.81/share versus $7.40 today.

N5 V3

Oct 30, 2015

Pershing Square

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International VRX

Citron's 'next Enron' attack on Valeant is a 1963 AmEx Salad Oil rerun — Philidor is ~7% of sales, the franchise is intact, and VRX at 7x cash EPS offers 60-215% upside.

N5 V3

Oct 21, 2015

Citron Research

Valeant Pharmaceuticals VRX

Valeant is channel-stuffing through a web of captive specialty pharmacies (Philidor, R&O, plus cloned shells) to fabricate invoices and book phantom revenue — a potential Pharmaceutical Enron; price target $50.

N5 V3

Aug 01, 2015

Pershing Square

Herbalife Ltd. HLF

Herbalife's fastest-growing segment — China, ~10% of sales — operates as an illegal pyramid scheme, with royalties disguised in SEC filings as 'China Sales Employees' SG&A to hide identical multi-level compensation.

N5 V2

May 04, 2015

Pershing Square

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International VRX

Valeant is mis-valued on a traditional earnings multiple; crediting its Pearson-led Platform Value — like Jarden or Danaher — unlocks $330+/share, ~48% upside from $223.

N5 V4

May 04, 2015

Pershing Square

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International VRX

Valeant is a platform compounder that traditional P/E undervalues; SOTP plus credit for ongoing M&A implies $330+/share vs $223 today, with up to $618 by 2020.

N5 V3

May 04, 2015

Greenlight Capital

Pioneer Natural Resources PXD

Pioneer and the shale 'frackers' burn cash and destroy value on every BOE developed; their $27B market cap rests on proved reserves worth $3-8B — buy oil, not PXD.

N5 V3

Apr 22, 2015

Trian Partners

E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company DD

DuPont is a chronically underperforming conglomerate; electing Trian's four nominees forces structural review, cost cuts, and governance reform to unlock $120+/share by 2017 — a 21% IRR.

N5 V4

Apr 21, 2015

Trian Partners

E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Company DD

DuPont is bottom-quartile under Ellen Kullman; electing Trian's four nominees unlocks $120/share by 2017 by cutting $2-4bn of excess corporate costs and ending 'crony' compensation.

N5 V4

Apr 21, 2015

Trian Partners

E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Company (DuPont) DD

DuPont is a chronically underperforming conglomerate bloated with $2-4bn of excess costs; putting Trian on the board unlocks a $120+/share, 21% IRR path by 2017.

N5 V3

Feb 17, 2015

Muddy Waters

Bolloré SA BOL FP

Bolloré's Breton-Pulleys circular ownership masks that public float is 42.8% not 24.3%; at €4.37 shares trade at 41% of €10.63 NAV — 95% upside to €8.50.

N5 V2

Feb 17, 2015

Trian Partners

E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Company (DuPont) DD

DuPont is an underperforming conglomerate burdened with $2-4bn of excess costs; elect Trian's four nominees to drive separation, cost cuts, and board accountability.

N5 V3

Sep 11, 2014

Starboard Value

Darden Restaurants, Inc. DRI

Darden trades at $48 because a corporate-heavy Board has buried a great restaurant company; the Brinker playbook — cost cuts, real estate separation, SRG spin, franchising — unlocks $67-$86 per share.

N5 V3

Sep 11, 2014

Starboard Value

Darden Restaurants, Inc. DRI

Darden's brands and real estate are worth $67-$86/share vs. $48 today — replace the entire board to execute the Brinker playbook: operational turnaround, real-estate separation, SRG spin-off.

N5 V3

May 05, 2014

Greenlight Capital

athenahealth ATHN

athenahealth is the poster child of the cloud 'bubble basket' — strip Morgan Stanley's fantasy margin and revenue-per-doctor assumptions and the stock falls 80%+ toward a $50 adjusted DCF.

N5 V2

Apr 22, 2014

Pershing Square

Allergan, Inc. AGN

Allergan shareholders should accept Valeant's bid: Valeant is an 'Outsider'-style acquirer (25x TSR under Pearson) whose lean R&D and platform M&A will compound Val-gan's value far beyond Allergan standalone.

N5 V3

Mar 31, 2014

Starboard Value

Darden Restaurants, Inc. DRI

Darden's rushed Red Lobster spin is the wrong deal at the wrong time — it traps ~$850M of real estate value and blocks a $1-2B REIT unlock; shareholders must call a Special Meeting to stop it.

N5 V3

Feb 19, 2014

Trian Partners

PepsiCo, Inc. PEP

PepsiCo has chronically underperformed because its 'Power of One' holding-company structure suffocates Frito-Lay and Pepsi; separate them into two focused companies and the combined value will re-rate materially higher.

N5 V3

Jan 13, 2014

Elliott Management

Juniper Networks JNPR

Juniper has badly underperformed peers for a decade; a $200M cost cut, a $3.5B buyback with dividend, and a security/switching review can drive shares to $35–$40 (57–77% upside).

N5 V4

Jul 01, 2013

Glenview

Health Management Associates HMA

HMA's insular 17-year-tenure board drove a Lost Decade of <1% TSR; replace all directors with Glenview's blue-chip slate to fix governance, compensation, and capital allocation.

N5 V3

Jul 01, 2013

Trian Partners

PepsiCo, Inc. PEP

PepsiCo's snacks and beverages are structurally incompatible — Trian demands a Mondelez merger plus beverage spin (or a clean snacks/beverages separation), unlocking up to $175/share by 2015 vs. $85 today.

N5 V3

Jun 06, 2013

Oasis Management

Nintendo Co., Ltd. 7974.T

Nintendo trades at 0.9x book with 67% of market cap in net cash; publishing Mario and Pokémon on iOS/Android unlocks freemium upside of 97-240%.

N5 V3

Apr 15, 2013

Elliott Management

Hess Corporation HES

Hess's world-class assets are squandered by 17 years of John Hess's undisciplined, unaccountable leadership; electing Elliott's five nominees unlocks $96-128 per share of intrinsic value.

N5 V4

Mar 01, 2013

Elliott Management

Hess Corporation HES

Hess underperformed peers by 460% over 17 years of restructurings; splitting the conglomerate into a Bakken pure-play and an international E&P unlocks $128/share.

N5 V4

Feb 21, 2013

Greenlight Capital

Apple Inc. AAPL

Apple's $137B idle cash depresses its P/E; distribute 'iPrefs' — tax-free perpetual preferred stock paying 4% — to unlock ~$150/share without spending a dollar of cash.

N5 V3

Jan 29, 2013

Elliott Management

Hess Corporation HES

Hess trades at a steep discount because its unfocused portfolio and poor execution mask premier Bakken acreage; spin the resource co., replace the board, and unlock ~150% upside to $126.

N5 V4

Dec 20, 2012

Pershing Square

Herbalife Ltd. HLF

Herbalife is an illegal pyramid scheme masquerading as a nutrition company; its $4.8bn market cap rests on recruiting, not real retail demand, and the stock should go to zero.

N5 V3

Dec 20, 2012

Pershing Square

Herbalife Ltd. HLF

Herbalife is an illegal pyramid scheme: distributors profit from recruiting not retail, the top 1% captures 88% of rewards, and the stock is ultimately worth zero.

N5 V4

Nov 27, 2012

Muddy Waters

Olam International Ltd. SGX:O32

Olam is an Enron-style agri trader whose aggressive non-cash accounting, off-the-rails CapEx binge, and 9.3x leverage mask a failing trading business — equity likely worthless, bonds 14-33¢.

N5 V2

Jul 18, 2012

Muddy Waters

New Oriental Education & Technology Group EDU

New Oriental is hiding an extensive franchising operation, filing fraudulent tax-exempt financials in Beijing and using a cosmetic VIE — expect a restatement and Deloitte to resign.

N5 V2

May 31, 2012

Elliott Management

BMC Software BMC

BMC's strong assets are trapped under an unengaged board and CEO Beauchamp who keeps missing his own targets; electing Elliott's four tech nominees opens a sale and long-overdue value.

N5 V3

May 16, 2012

Pershing Square

J.C. Penney Company, Inc. JCP

JCP has been chronically mismanaged for 20 years; new CEO Ron Johnson (ex-Target, ex-Apple Retail) with a dream team and a mall-within-a-mall remake can take the stock from $26 to $77-$125 by 2014.

N5 V4

Feb 09, 2012

Muddy Waters

Focus Media Holding FMCN

FMCN's 'independent' verification of its 185,174 LCD network counted 30,500 cardboard posters as LCDs, confirming Muddy Waters' fraud thesis and impugning all reported financials.

N5 V2

Feb 06, 2012

Pershing Square

Canadian Pacific Railway CP

CP is the worst-performing Class I railroad under Fred Green; replacing him with Hunter Harrison — who transformed CN via Precision Scheduled Railroading — closes the peer gap and unlocks ~$140/share.

N5 V4

Nov 21, 2011

Muddy Waters

Focus Media Holding Ltd. FMCN

Focus Media is the Olympus of China: it inflates its LCD screen count by 50%, systematically overpays for acquisitions it writes off, and enriches insiders at shareholders' expense.

N5 V2

Oct 17, 2011

Greenlight Capital

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters GMCR

GMCR's $9 EPS bull case ignores a smaller TAM, falling K-cup attachment rates, a September 2012 patent cliff, and accounting shenanigans at fulfillment agent MBlock — realistic EPS is ~$3.50.

N5 V2

Sep 14, 2011

Pershing Square

Hong Kong Dollar / Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) HKD

Hong Kong's USD peg forces the booming HKD to import US ultra-accommodative monetary policy, fueling inflation and property bubbles; a 30% revaluation to 6:1 offers ~44x upside via cheap call options.

N5 V3

Jun 02, 2011

Muddy Waters

Sino-Forest Corporation TRE

Sino-Forest is a fraud: its Authorized Intermediary structure fabricates timber revenue, its Yunnan holdings are overstated by ~$900M, and equity is worth less than $1 vs. $18.21.

N5 V2

May 25, 2011

Pershing Square

Family Dollar Stores FDO

Family Dollar runs a 37% EBIT/sqft productivity gap to Dollar General post-KKR; closing it via ops, a leveraged buyback, or sale unlocks ~$90/share (70% upside).

N5 V3

Apr 04, 2011

Muddy Waters

Duoyuan Global Water Inc. DGW

DGW is a massive fraud overstating revenue by 100x; forged PRC audits, empty factory, and related-party tunneling to Chairman Guo imply the stock is worth under $1.

N5 V2

Nov 10, 2010

Muddy Waters

RINO International Corp. RINO

RINO is a near-zero: 94% of its reported revenue is fabricated, customers deny buying its FGD systems, and founders are draining cash via the VIE; fair value $2.45 vs. $15.52.

N5 V2

Oct 13, 2010

Greenlight Capital

The St. Joe Company JOE

St. Joe's Florida real estate empire is a value trap: developments are ghost towns, the airport catalyst is a bust, and the land is worth $7-10/share, not $24.54.

N5 V3

Jun 28, 2010

Muddy Waters

Orient Paper Inc. ONP

Orient Paper is a fraud — revenues overstated 27x in 2008 and ~40x in 2009, assets inflated 10x, ~$30M of investor raises misappropriated; fair value under $1 vs. $8.43.

N5 V2

May 26, 2010

Pershing Square

General Growth Properties GGP

At $14, GGP implicitly prices spinco GGO at negative $1; PF GGP alone merits ~$15 on Simon's 6.6% peer cap rate, pointing to ~$20 combined intrinsic and ~43% upside by year-end emergence.

N5 V3

Oct 19, 2009

Greenlight Capital

US/Japan Sovereign Debt & Fiat Currencies (Macro)

Bernanke and Geithner's short-termism has institutionalized too-big-to-fail and will debase fiat currencies — hedge with gold and long-dated options on higher US and Japanese rates.

N5 V1

Oct 06, 2009

Pershing Square

Realty Income Corporation O

Realty Income trades at a 7.3% cap rate — a ~40% premium to 10-11% private-market rates for the same junk-credit retail properties; downside to ~$14 (-46%).

N5 V3

May 27, 2009

Pershing Square

General Growth Properties GGWPQ

GGP filed for liquidity, not insolvency; with assets materially exceeding liabilities, a seven-year debt extension would deliver 10x–25x upside on equity trading at $1.19.

N5 V3

Nov 19, 2008

Pershing Square

Target Corporation TGT

Target's land is mispriced inside a 5.8x retail multiple; a <20% IPO of 'TIP REIT' followed by a tax-free spin re-rates the real estate at REIT multiples and lifts the stock from $37 to $67 now, $80 by 2010.

N5 V3

Oct 29, 2008

Pershing Square

Target Corporation TGT

Target's owned real estate is a $39bn hidden asset; a tax-free land-only REIT spin (TIP REIT) with a 75-year master lease unlocks ~$30/share and 74% upside.

N5 V3

May 21, 2008

Greenlight Capital

Lehman Brothers LEH

Lehman's $489M 1Q08 profit is accounting ingenuity — hidden CDOs, an unexplained $1.1bn Level 3 swing, and a fabricated KSK mark-up; it must recapitalize now.

N5 V2

May 21, 2008

Pershing Square

Wendy's International WEN

Wendy's is fundamentally a franchise + real estate business trading at a peer-gap discount; the Triarc merger and OpCo turnaround unlock 75-85% upside to $49-$52.

N5 V3

May 21, 2008

Greenlight Capital

Lehman Brothers LEH

Lehman is using fair-value accounting tricks to hide CDO losses and inflate Level 3 marks; the firm is over-levered, opaque, and needs to recapitalize before the Fed has to step in.

N5 V2

Feb 01, 2006

Carl Icahn

Time Warner Inc. TWX

Time Warner has underperformed its peer index by 51% under Parsons; splitting into four SpinCos (AOL, Content, Publishing, Cable) plus a $20bn buyback unlocks $30-45bn — a 35-54% premium.

N5 V4

Jan 18, 2006

Pershing Square

McDonald's Corporation MCD

McDonald's is fundamentally a franchise and real-estate royalty company hidden inside an underperforming restaurant operator; a 20% McOpCo IPO and segment financials force a sum-of-parts rerating to $46-$50/share.

N5 V3

Nov 15, 2005

Pershing Square

McDonald's Corporation MCD

McDonald's is a hidden real-estate and franchise business trading as a restaurant operator; IPO'ing 65% of McOpCo and re-levering PropCo unlocks $45-50 per share, a 37-52% premium.

N5 V3