Contrarian Corpus
activist conference presentation initial thesis
2009-10-20 · 40 pages

Corrections Corporation of America CXW

N 5 Narrative
V 4 Visual
C 3 Craft
Original source ↗

The three reasons

  1. 1

    CXW trades at a 12% cap rate vs ~7% for Health Care REITs with near-identical attributes

  2. 2

    Supply/demand imbalance: public prisons at 96-137% capacity drives secular private-bed growth

  3. 3

    Sum-of-parts OpCo/PropCo analysis implies $40-$54 per share vs $24.50 today

Primary demands

  • Separate CXW into an OpCo (prison operator) and PropCo (real estate)
  • Re-convert the real estate into a REIT to unlock cap-rate compression
  • Recognize CXW as a real estate business comparable to Health Care REITs, not a low-multiple services company

KPIs cited

Implied cap rate
12.2% for CXW vs ~7% for typical Health Care REITs
P / Free Cash Flow Per Share
~13.3x 2009e, declining to 8.5x by 2012e on growth
Occupancy (owned only)
86.6% 2009e rising to 95.5% 2012e
Normalized FCFPS
$1.73 (2008a) growing to $2.90 (2012e)
Market share of private prison beds
CXW controls ~46% of US private prison/jail beds
Owned & Managed segment as % of Facility EBITDA
~90%, up from 74% in 2001
Maintenance capex as % of revenue
~2%, comparable to Health Care REITs' ~3.5%
Return on Capital Employed
14.2% Q2 2009 annualized, up from 11.9% in 2006
20-year inmate population CAGR
5% — growth regardless of economic cycles
Private capture of incremental growth
49% in 2007 as state budgets postponed new public prison construction
Facility EBITDA margin
~35% Owned & Managed vs ~14% Managed-only
Interest coverage ratio
5.4x as of Q2'09; next debt maturity 2012

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Notable slides (8)

Notes

Classic Ackman collaborative-activist thesis presented at the Value Investing Congress, October 2009. The 'Prisons' Dilemma' title is a pun on prisoner's dilemma. Tone is notably friendly toward management — the deck includes a slide literally titled 'Management Gets It' featuring a supportive quote from CXW's former CFO about unlocking real estate value, and a CEO (Damon Hininger) quote used to reinforce, not contradict. Core thesis: CXW is a misclassified real-estate business (gov't tenants, local monopoly, 2% maintenance capex, low cyclicality) trading at a 12% cap rate vs ~7% for Health Care REIT peers with nearly identical attributes. Sum-of-parts OpCo/PropCo valuation yields $40-$54 (vs $24.50 market). The deck also includes a cautionary history of the 1997-2000 CCA Prison Realty Trust / New Prison Realty episode, framed as a 'REIT structure wasn't the problem — over-leverage was' rebuttal to the obvious objection. Strong SCQA structure: Situation (quality business, market leader) → Complication (trades at discount due to OpCo classification) → Question (what should CXW do?) → Answer (REIT conversion). Visual style is standard Pershing Square institutional: blue headers, navy/green title bars, tables-heavy, minimal graphic design polish. Not Ackman's best visual work (nowhere near the 2012 CP deck) but narrative architecture is textbook.