Contrarian Corpus
activist conference presentation follow up
2010-05-26 · 89 pages

General Growth Properties GGP

N 5 Narrative
V 4 Visual
C 4 Craft
Original source ↗

The three reasons

  1. 1

    GGP is worth ~$20/share sum-of-parts ($15 PF GGP + $5 GGO) vs. $14 price — 43% upside by year-end

  2. 2

    PF GGP will re-enter REIT indexes as a 'must-own' ~$16bn stock; top 25 REIT holders own 0% today

  3. 3

    Macro backdrop for mall REITs has flipped — consumer, tenant sales, and cap rates all recovering since 2009

Primary demands

  • Support the Brookfield / Pershing Square / Fairholme backstop plan to recapitalize GGP and pay unsecured creditors in full
  • Emerge GGP from bankruptcy as two separate public companies: PF GGP (core mall REIT) and GGO (master planned communities + development assets)
  • Transfer 13 underperforming 'Special Consideration Properties' to lenders to upgrade portfolio quality

KPIs cited

GGP stock price performance
Up >1000% since Ira Sohn 2009 ($1.19 to $14), though TEV up only 12% vs. Simon TEV +29%
Secured debt extension
$15bn of GGP property-level secured debt consensually extended at 5.07% WAIR, 6.5-yr WAL
PF GGP LTM Adjusted Cash NOI
$2,290mm pro forma after SCP/GGO/Highland carve-out
PF GGP operating metrics vs peers
$424 sales/sqft, 91.3% occupancy, 14.3% occ cost — leading Simon ($420/91.0%/15.1%), Westfield, Macerich
Q1'10 comp tenant sales growth
GGP +7.5% vs. Simon +6.6%, Westfield +5.3%, Macerich +3.4%
Implied cap rate
At $15/share PF GGP trades at 6.6% cap rate, in line with peers; at $14 implies 8.0% cap rate net of GGO
Non-recourse leverage mix
PF GGP will be 78% non-recourse vs Simon <52%, Westfield <20%
Interest coverage ratio
Improves from 1.2x pre-emergence to 2.0x post-emergence
REIT investor crossholdings
Top 25 REIT holders own ~60% of top five REITs but <1% of GGP — implies $9bn of buying demand to normalize
IPO supply vs demand
Anticipated supply $3.8bn vs. dedicated REIT demand $9.7bn
PF GGP market cap at $15
~$16bn — second largest REIT in the IYR index after Simon

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Notable slides (11)

Notes

Delivered at the 2010 Ira Sohn Conference as the follow-up to Ackman's 2009 'Buck's Rebound Begins Here' GGP pitch. Classic victory-lap-meets-next-leg structure: Part 1 reprises the 2009 bankruptcy thesis and shows it played out; Part 2 pivots to the post-emergence sum-of-parts opportunity (PF GGP ~$15 + GGO ~$5 = ~$20 vs $14 price, 43% upside). Strong SCQA: 'A Little Context...' section uses explicit before/after framing (2009 world vs. 2010 recovery). Memorable rhetorical devices: 'a mall is like a trust holding a portfolio of bonds' analogy; four-slide illustrative walk-through comparing non-recourse vs. recourse leverage math (with a Mr. Bill clown 'OHH NOOO!!!' image when recourse equity is wiped out) — rare visual humor for Pershing. Crossholdings analysis slide (p39) is the rhetorical peak: shows top 25 REIT holders own ~60% of peer REITs but <1% of GGP, implying $9bn of forced buying. Closes with a surprise 'And one more thing...' Steve Jobs-style reveal of a new ~150mm-share Citigroup position. No villain — this is a constructive/analytical pitch, not adversarial; management (Adam Metz, Steve Sterrett of SPG) is quoted supportively, not contradicted. Standard Pershing Square institutional blue/white deck — clean but not top-tier editorial.