Callouts & quotes from 875+ activist slides

"And the class of '20 and class of 2021 are the best class of stores we've ever opened. — CFO Lang, GS Conf. Sept 8, 2022; And so that's part of the reason our CapEx costs are going up is because we're doing more of that. — CFO Lang, Stephens Conf. Dec 2, 2021; Based on challenging macroeconomic conditions, our class of 2022 and class of 2023 new stores are estimated to be below these targets. — 2023 10-K, Feb 22, 2024; We expect about 25% to 30% of our planned 2024 new warehouse store openings could be in smaller format stores. — Q4'23 Conf Call, Feb 2024"

""DIS’s stepped-up Parks investment has the potential to drive significant returns, however investors likely need more insight into how DIS intends to allocate this capital across its resorts and cruise lines to factor this upside potential into estimates and valuation." — Goldman Sachs, September 2023; "Following the announcement, Disney’s shares are down ~3.5% intraday. Since it will take time before DIS sees the EBIT benefit from higher DPEP capex, we suspect investors are concerned about the potential near-term pressure to FCF." — Citi, September 2023"

"“DIS’s stepped-up Parks investment has the potential to drive significant returns, however investors likely need more insight into how DIS intends to allocate this capital across its resorts and cruise lines to factor this upside potential into estimates and valuation.” — Goldman Sachs, September 2023; “Following the announcement, Disney’s shares are down ~3.5% intraday. Since it will take time before DIS sees the EBIT benefit from higher DPEP capex, we suspect investors are concerned about the potential near-term pressure to FCF.” — Citi, September 2023"

""In the first quarter of 2020, we adopted, using the modified retrospective approach, amended accounting guidance that required credit losses on financial instruments, including trade receivables, to be measured based on an expected credit loss model instead of the incurred loss model. The expected credit loss model requires us to consider forward-looking information to estimate our allowance for credit losses. Our adoption of this guidance did not have a material impact on our financial position, results of operations or cash flows." — 2020 10-Q, p. 6"

"The discretionary components of our business, which are the most affected by general economic conditions, have been challenged by cautious consumer spending on big ticket items like swimming pools and outdoor living projects resulting in sales of building materials declining 11% for the year compared to the same period in 2023. We now believe that new pool units could be down 15% to 20% in 2024, and remodeling activity for 2024 may be down as much as 15% compared to our previous estimate of flat to down 10% compared to 2023. — Pool Corp Press Release"

""At current valuation levels, by simply marking to market the value of non-refining businesses, we estimate one can create the MPC refining business for effectively free before even incorporating the upside from IMO 2020." — Goldman Sachs, March 19, 2019; "We see discounted value in MPC with the stock trading in line with many of its peers on 2020 EBITDA despite its corporate structure with retail and midstream deserving a premium. However, debate has centered on investors' confidence in MPC's earnings achievability." — Morgan Stanley, May 9, 2019"

"Ending Q1 2011, there were 33 Patches that had above $2,000 per month in revenue. Ending Q4 2011, there were 401 Patches above $2,000 per month in revenue.... We arrived at our cost estimates for Patch of $160 million in 2011 based on the following statement by the Company's Chief Financial Officer at the AOL Investor Day on June 16, 2011: '... we're going to spend $160 million a year this year on Patch....' Further, in a research report published on May 10, 2012, Barclays estimated that Patch generated EBITDA losses of $151 million in 2011."

"The biggest controversy from last night's Disney F4Q 2022 earnings call was management guidance that FY 2023 segment EBIT would grow in the high single digits vs. consensus growth of +25% and our own estimate of +34%. Rarely have we ever been so incorrect in our forecasting of Disney profits. Given the company's confidence that Parks trends appear resilient, it appears that the culprit for the massive earnings downgrade is much higher than expected DTC losses and significant declines at Linear networks. — MoffettNathanson, November 9, 2022"

""The Company’s loss reserve committees estimate expected loss to be paid for all contracts by reviewing analyses that consider various scenarios with corresponding probabilities assigned to them. Depending upon the nature of the risk, the Company’s view of the potential size of any loss and the information available to the Company, that analysis may be based upon individually developed cash flow models, internal credit rating assessments, sector-driven loss severity assumptions and/or judgmental assessments" — AGO 10-K, February 23, 2018"

""On May 4, 2020, we completed the divestiture of the Security & Detection Systems and MacDonald Humfrey Automation solutions business ("airport security and automation business") to Leidos, Inc. for $ 1 billion (net cash proceeds of $ 950 million after selling costs and estimated purchase price adjustments), subject to final customary purchase price adjustments as set forth in the definitive sale agreement, and recognized a pre-tax loss of $26 million during the quarter ended July 3, 2020." — L3Harris Q1 2020 10-Q"

"The discretionary components of our business, have been challenged by cautious consumer spending on big ticket items like swimming pools and outdoor living projects resulting in sales of building materials declining 11% for the year compared to the same period in 2023. and We now believe that new pool units could be down 15% to 20% in 2024, and remodeling activity for 2024 may be down as much as 15% compared to our previous estimate of flat to down 10% compared to 2023. — Pool Corp Warning, June 24, 2024"

"In late 2011, fraud researcher Jon Carnes, who has among the best track records in the industry in identifying irregularities with China-based companies, issued a report on Silvercorp that alleged, among other things: The company’s technical reports were based on a 2-man team that used resource estimates provided by Silvercorp and who hadn’t visited the site in years. The quality and resource estimates of its mines were overstated. That a related-party transaction had enriched a relative of CEO Rui Feng."

"While these inconsistencies suggest that there may be discrepancies in the sell side's view of the base of the market, we are intrigued most by the fact that, regardless of how analysts identify and measure the market, they appear to significantly underestimate the pace of competitive market share gains: again, the sell side appears to assume that Penumbra will lose 2-3% market share per year, while Medtronic claims to have gained 15% in under a year and to be on pace to capture another 10% this year."

"I would categorize Dropbox revenue growth as mid-growth (~20% YoY top-line growth). The interesting part is in the net income and free cash flow. The Company has guided to $1.6 billion revenue in FY19. If we apply a 20% growth rate to FY20, that would imply a ~$1.9 billion revenue. If we take management estimates of $375m of free cash flow, it would imply ~20x forward EV/FCF, below high growth profitable peers that routinely trade at 50x EV/FCF. — Seeking Alpha, "Finding Value in SaaS, Jan 2020"

"On May 4, 2020, we completed the divestiture of the Security & Detection Systems and MacDonald Humfrey Automation solutions business ("airport security and automation business") to Leidos, Inc. for $ 1 billion (net cash proceeds of $ 950 million after selling costs and estimated purchase price adjustments), subject to final customary purchase price adjustments as set forth in the definitive sale agreement, and recognized a pre-tax loss of $26 million during the quarter ended July 3, 2020."

""We have reviewed the procedures used by the Board of Directors in arriving at its estimate of value of such investments and have inspected underlying documentation, and, in the circumstances, we believe the procedures are reasonable and the documentation appropriate." — Arthur Andersen LLP (previous audit language). "[W]e have written that we believe these allegations are unfounded and uninformed and have attempted to produce as much factual rebuttal as possible." — Merrill Lynch report."

"Other expenses that are not directly attributable to a particular segment are based upon allocation methodologies, including time estimates, revenue, headcount, sales targets, data center consumption and other relevant usage measures. Due to the integrated structure of MSCI's business, certain costs incurred by one segment may benefit other segments. A segment may use the content and data produced by another segment without incurring an arm's-length intersegment charge. — MSCI SEC filings"

"The Company stated that: "Ending Q1 2011, there were 401 Patches above $2,000 per month in revenue..." We arrived at our cost estimates for Patch of $160 million in 2011 based on the following statement by the Company's Chief Financial Officer at the AOL Investor Day on June 16, 2011: "...we're going to spend $160 million a year this year on Patch..." Further, in a research report published on May 10, 2012, Barclays estimated that Patch generated EBITDA losses of $151 million in 2011."

"“Basic PK – since the half-life of Pitolisant is approximately 20 hours about half the drug levels will be circulating when the 2nd dose is administered so this is added to the new peak plasma levels on Day 2, and again on day 3, day 4 etc., until steady state plasma levels are reached... Thus, the QTcT study is intentionally misleading, and the statements made about safety margins are therefore overestimated and incorrect.” — Pharmacology consultant engaged by Scorpion Capital"

"Third, the transaction structure will result in the stock being listed on two major global exchanges, the NYSE and the ASX. And through these listings, we expect there will be greater liquidity for investors as the market capitalisation of the combined company, which we estimate at US$17 billion, is expected to qualify for inclusion in the US S&P500 index, while the Australian listed shares will also continue to be included in the ASX 200 index. — CEO Dalia Deal Call Aug 2018"

"A good estimate would be 2 out of 10 RFPs that we're involved in on a clinical research organization with large pharma customers; they are involved. What Berkeley Lights is doing is very niche, so you don't see a lot of players coming in wanting to play in that segment, you don't see a lot of webinars about them, you don't see them speak at conferences, you don't really see Berkeley Lights attending those conferences or engaging them at that level. — IQVIA executive"

"The purchase price for this acquisition totaled $92,678. The remaining amount consists of a contingent consideration of $3,004 which is contingent upon meeting certain performance metrics. Since the initial purchase price allocation was estimated, contingent consideration has been reduced by $4,000 and trade and other payables have increased by $650 and those adjustments have been reflected as an adjustment of $3,350 to goodwill. — Nuvei Q2'21 Financials, p.9"

"As we discussed earlier, just 4% of men over 70 have prostates above 100g, and our research found that Aquablation is most competitive versus MISTs and other resective procedures for larger prostates, above 80-100g. Thus, even if we assume 10% of active patients have large prostates, 9.6 million patients, and a 2% annual intervention rate, that implies only 19,200 of the annual 192,000 estimated annual BPH interventions are “best suited” for Aquablation."

"their prices are higher than what we pay for our own planes that we contract privately. ... I estimate it's around $7500 to $8500 per hour. — One of the top liver transplant surgeons in the world, based at a leading Midwest academic center. ... a much more reasonable price because it’s not associated with OCS. ... they’re not buying the jets…they’re using charters just like we use currently. — Cardiac transplant surgeon at a major Midwest academic center"

"Spruce Point believes that consensus estimates for future aspiration catheter revenues are not analytically robust. Yet, as with most companies, the market interprets these estimates as a good indicator of future sales, and as perhaps the most educated, rigorous, and analytically complete assessment of future performance. Accordingly, we believe that Penumbra shares are currently valued according to estimates which likely feature a high degree of error."

""Moving on to China, first quarter volume points increased 17% compared to the previous year. As stated previously, this was primarily driven by volume in the month of March, which was pull[ed] forward ahead of our 5% price increase effective April 1. We estimated that this impact to be approximately 40 million to 45 million volume points, which will lead to a lower than previously planned second quarter for China." — John DeSimone, CFO (May 4, 2017)"

"The other key observations from our derivation of estimated Live metrics are that (1) Consumer segment revenue grew faster before the launch of Live (FY 2016-2018) than it has over the past three years (FY 2022-2024), suggesting Live's massive revenue growth may just be fueled by cannibalization of non-Live revenue, and (2) Consumer segment revenue growth ex-Live is very modest, we believe calling into question the sustainability of the franchise."

"We also expect to have lower equity earnings associated with the ULA business as a result of the number and mix of launches expected in 2019 compared with 2018.... The largest single item that is driving the margin reduction next year, though, is actually our ULA equity earnings. Those are actually going – we expect those to be down nearly $150 million or so from this year's estimate of the equity earnings from ULA. — LMT Q3'18 Conf Call"

"“...we got to the latter part of January and spent a good part of February trying to figure out what the heck was going on and what we had to do.” — Dave Cote, Executive Chairman; “In short, we screwed up... We significantly underestimated the magnitude of the material and freight inflation...” — Robert Johnson, CEO; “Some of you may be wondering why I don't get more involved. The answer is, I have...” — Dave Cote, Executive Chairman"

""Yes, we will help broadcasters to become popular. We estimate about 10% of the revenue of Momo is from this type of activity. Sometimes we will pay this cost to help a broadcaster." — Super Agency #6; "We have to. This is just the same as Taobao fake sales. Everyone does it. Each month about 10-20% of our revenue is us spending money on broadcasters. We share the loss equally with the broadcaster." — Large Agency #11"

"Rentokil Initial and Terminix are significant players in the attractive, non-cyclical and growing pest control industry. The global pest control market, estimated to be worth c.US$22bn in 2020 (51% in North America, 20% Europe, 21% Asia), has delivered a total market CAGR of 4.7% over the last five years and is estimated to grow at between 4.5% and 5%+ over the medium term. — Terminix and Rentokil Deal Press Release"

"“The Company periodically provides customer incentive programs including product discounts and volume-based rebates, which are accounted for as reductions to revenue in the period in which the revenue is recognized. These reductions to revenue are made based upon reasonable and reliable estimates that are determined by historical experience and the specific terms and conditions of the incentive.” — Kornit 2016 20-F"

"We are a leader in a large, fast-growing and underpenetrated market with significant tailwinds. Based on the Company Data Analysis, we estimate that the total addressable market for our core solutions was approximately $13 billion globally in 2020 and was less than 25% penetrated and is expected to grow to approximately $20 billion by 2025 with less than 50% penetration. — DoubleVerify Prospectus Sept 22, 2020"

"“We note that Alcoa acquired Firth Rixson in November 2014 for a purchase price of $2.85 billion, which compares to our estimated EBITDA exit rate for 2015 of $190 million. Alcoa thus far has not backed away from guidance of $1.6 billion in sales and $350 million in EBITDA for 2016; however, we believe these targets are not attainable and are modelling much lower growth rates.” — Credit Suisse, March 10, 2016"

"Purchase price allocations for 2021 acquisitions were based on preliminary valuations, primarily related to intangible assets, product liabilities and deferred income taxes. Our estimates and assumptions are subject to change within the measurement period. The purchase price allocations for Wright, OrthoSensor and other 2020 acquisitions were finalized in 2021 without material adjustments. — Stryker 2021 10-K"

"CEO Demarco Q3'16: “At these estimated production levels, we believe the potential market opportunity for Gremlin type aircraft is in the high several hundreds of millions of dollars up into billions of dollars” — Eric DeMarco. CEO Eric DeMarco: “It is very competitive, I am sorry, I did not talk about it in the script and I am not talking about it anymore. It's focus time. So, I apologize.” — Eric DeMarco."

""Also, substantially all of our servers are tested and assembled in our facilities, and more than half of our final server and storage production is completed in San Jose, California." — SMCI Disclosure; "Revised DIGITIMES estimates suggest that the server market shipments growth could decelerate to 4.3% in 2023 (revised from 5.2% previously) after posting an expansion of 6.1% in 2022" — DIGITIMES Research"

"The customer concentration is striking when one adds the volumes from a just a few others, whose questionable practices we detail in other sections: UCSD, which we estimate does 100 TransMedics cases; University of Utah, which we suspect will do over 50; and a center run by another Lebanon-trained physician, who told us he’s on track for 50 OCS pumps in 2024; and one in LA using 50 – another 250 devices."

"In a research note on Friday, Forsyth Barr analysts Matt Montgomerie and Andy Bowley said the performance of Fonterra's Chile business continued to improve, with annual profit before interest and tax of $92m - more than double the $42m in 2020. The analysts valued the Chile business at $840m, which is seven times its estimated $120m profit before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (ebitda)."

"Assuming Samsara’s LTV:CAC was 9x before declining to 7x in FY2023, we estimate that: (1) Samsara’s churn has nearly doubled since FY2020, (2) Its current quarterly churn of nearly 8% is relatively unattractive, (3) Samsara’s YoY growth in new ARR added has slowed to historic lows, and (4) the Company’s churned ARR relative to new ARR has increased dramatically, from 14% in FY2020 to 46% in FY2023."

"U.S. in 2013, we estimate that the construction of green buildings will be roughly about 45% of the total constructions of commercial buildings. In '16, it will increase to about 55%, 60%.... So as you can see, very, very well positioned within our Building & Construction Systems to, how could I say, capture the U.S. market recovery, right, in the next 3 years. — Olivier Jarrault, 2013 Investor Day"

"Contract and customer acquisition costs, consisting primarily of sales commissions, are incremental and recoverable costs of obtaining a contract. These costs are capitalized using the portfolio approach and are amortized over the expected period of benefit, which is the estimated life of the technology (determined to be approximately 7 years) provided in the underlying contract. — PWSC FY23 10-K"

""The 071 hit the ground running and we're getting great feedback. And we estimate that we're somewhere around 15% of this market already, well ahead of our plans. We see ourselves getting to 25% by the end of the fiscal year and we think we'll eventually get to 50% of this aspiration market." — Geoffrey Martha, Executive Vice President and President of Restorative Therapies Group, Medtronic"

"The Street believes that VRNT shares trade at a ~35% discount to SaaS peers. However, we estimate that VRNT trades just above the industry median, despite its chronically low organic growth, destructive acquisitions, and inability to generate cash flow growth despite frequent M&A – a stark contrast to the many fast-growing and highly-profitable true cloud businesses which occupy the space."

""The estimates of market opportunity and forecasts of market growth included in this prospectus may prove to be inaccurate. Market opportunity estimates and growth forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty and are based on assumptions and estimates that may not prove to be accurate, including as a result of any of the risks described in this prospectus." — FIGS IPO Prospectus, p. 52"

"Limbach trades at over 18x our estimate for its FY26E Adj. EBITDA, a large premium when compared to peers. We believe this premium is unwarranted considering the Company's decelerating organic revenue growth, non-existent free cash flow growth, and its aggressive accounting methods which we believe may overstate earnings quality and obscure the true underlying volatility of the business."

"The WFG Convention brought in an estimated 33,000 attendees in 2024. Ticket prices went for $300+ per person, thus the convention likely grossed ~$10 million. We have concerns about whether senior WFG leaders are financially incentivized to increase convention attendance, which would lead us to question whether the convention is merely another way to extract money from low-level agents."

"We believe it will be difficult for Zillow to grow as long as its Premier Agent business is in decline. Our estimates for 2024 assume continued weakness in Premier Agent offset by strong gains in its Rentals business paired with a comparable operating expense structure to 2023. Based on these estimates, we believe Zillow could produce $200 to $260 million of free cash flow in 2024."

"How can TurboTax disclosed Paying ARPR only increase 7% from 2020 to 2023 when (1) Online and Live average list prices rose 10% and 9%, (2) Intuit launched the highest ASP Full Service offering in 2021, and (3) we estimate that higher list ASP Live as a percent of total paying returns grew from 7% to 18% over the same period. We believe this suggests weak price realization."

"In an absolute best case scenario in which ABML successfully builds and ramps its facility, secures adequate battery supply to operate at full capacity, and finds customers willing to purchase material at ABML’s estimated prices, and assuming ABML should trade in-line with a mix of battery value chain and recycling players, we believe ABML is worth less than $1.00/share."

"To estimate 2016 revenues per program, we used the following data and estimates: Our revenue cohort assumptions for 2016, 2016 revenues by school disclosed in company filings, 2016 top ten programs by new student enrollment, Tuition data (credits to complete degree and cost per credit) obtained on schools websites where available, UNC enrollment data (from FOIA request)."

"Part II: Twist’s “DNA chip” narrative - 10,000X higher throughput and lower cost - is fraudulent, covering up a manual, labor-intensive, and fatally-flawed manufacturing process crippled by errors, bottlenecks, and pitiful yields – thereby driving gross margins we estimate to be negative, not unlike Theranos which claimed to run blood tests on its “chip” but wasn’t."

"Auditing the Company's estimates of accrued receivables and the related accrued claims payable was complex and required significant judgment as the estimates were sensitive to changes in the significant assumptions, including management's assumptions regarding the lag between authorization date and service date, service changes and cancellations. — PGNY FY2021 10-K"

""Each black dot in the chart represents an automotive securitization market transaction completed in 2018. The black line is the best-fit line of the individual transactions in the chart. The blue line represents the historical and current best estimates of future performance for all loans originated on Carvana's website." — November 2018 Investor Day Presentation"

"Notice carefully that LSPD's prospectus cloud image (right) fails to disclose customers, instead focusing on 47,000+ "Customer Locations". However, LSPD left a clue that allows us to calculate implied customers from the $500,000 GTV per customer. We estimate LSPD had 27,200 customers at IPO. This is 46% fewer customers than it reported just 5 months earlier."

"We involved data specialists to assess management's estimate on reserve rates by recalculating historical reserve rates across multiple fiscal periods. We compared our independently developed historical reserve rates with the reserve rates used by management to evaluate management's ability to accurately estimate excess and obsolete inventory. — 2022 10-K"

"We believe Nuvei is a mixture of acquisitions which on average have been acquired at approximately 5.6x revenues. We estimate up to 40% of revenues are acquired and do not deserve to increase the value of the entire company given numerous issues we've identified with specific acquisitions such as Base Commerce, Smart2Pay, SafeCharge and Vantage Payments."

"BEKE claims that its GTV from new home sales on its platform was RMB 908 billion in Q2-Q3, 2021. Based on the number of new home sales collected and the average sales price reported by BEKE, we estimate that BEKE's actual GTV from new home sales was only RMB 402 million, indicating that BEKE likely inflated new home GTV by at least approximately ~126%."

"BR's CEO cited many records in FY 2022, but what he doesn't point out is that cash flow declined. By adjusting the results for the onerous UBS project investment and COVID-19 effects, as well as the inorganic acquisition contribution from Itiviti, we estimate that BR's core business experienced declining Cash From Operations by approximately -17.2%."

"Spruce Point believes part of what has driven Weis' share price is the belief that its operating cash flow grew 550% YoY in Q1'18. However, by pro forma adjusting results for its aggressive accounting change to accelerate accounts receivables as cash, and a one-time incentive payment (cash flow drag) from Q1'17, we estimate the growth rate was 74%."