"Although Canadian Tire may appear cheap compared to retailers on a P/E and EBITDA multiple basis, this is the incorrect way to value Canadian Tire given its unique business model."
Callouts & quotes from 662+ activist slides
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"Q2 results illustrate how the underlying business of the legacy MDA is deteriorating fast. YTD underlying organic growth was -12.7%. Management also cut EBITDA margins materially."
"This structure demonstrates that Darden can separate its real estate while enhancing its credit rating and dividend coverage, even without any of our expected EBITDA improvements"
"This structure demonstrates that Darden can separate its real estate while enhancing its credit rating and dividend coverage, even without any of our expected EBITDA improvements"
"The 5.4x EBITDA multiple paid by Golden Gate to acquire Red Lobster compares to Darden's current multiple of approximately 9.5x and the peer group average of approximately 10.5x."
"We use a 3.5x 2015E EV/EBITDA multiple because there are limited bidders (possibly only one) for the Eurasia and Nepal assets and TeliaSonera has signaled it is a willing seller."
"What this tells us is that BWLD could improve its valuation if operations were adapted to run like efficient franchise units – potentially increasing dollar EBITDA double-digits"
"Despite ~40% of EBITDA coming from attractive midstream assets, Phillips 66 continues to trade like a refiner, missing the value uplift in the midstream space over the last year"
"At the 2016 Investor Day, the Company appeared confident its core business would generate $1.3 billion of Adjusted EBITDA by 2017, and again FAILED to deliver on its commitment."
"Despite ~40% of EBITDA coming from attractive midstream assets, Phillips 66 continues to trade like a refiner, missing the value uplift in the midstream space over the last year"
"When capitalized commissions are deducted from both Adj. EBITDA and Non-GAAP Net Income in FY19, growth in both metrics is cut from mid-teens levels to close to (or below) zero."
"When capitalized commissions are deducted from both Adj. EBITDA and Non-GAAP Net Income in FY19, growth in both metrics is cut from mid-teens levels to close to (or below) zero."
"Phillips' 2024 refining EBITDA per barrel has trailed best-in-class peer Valero by $3.75 per barrel, widening to a $4.75 per barrel shortfall in the most recent fourth quarter."
"We strongly encourage the Board to de-emphasize revenue targets and instead compensate management primarily based on EBITDA and free cash flow per share targets going forward."
"After adjusting Olam's EBITDA to remove non-cash accounting gains, it is showing that Olam is currently leveraged at 9.3x gross debt to LTM EBITDA, and 1.6x interest coverage."
"As illustrated below, after normalizing for Leasing Gains on Sale, ~80% of AP’s EBITDA has been reclassed to the Investing section and seemingly is largely whole engine sales:"
"The fact that Adj. EBITDA growth does not translate into cash flow confirms to us that management's proprietary definition is not a meaningful measure of Company performance."
"Despite ~40% of EBITDA coming from attractive midstream assets, Phillips continues to trade like a refiner, missing the value uplift in the midstream space over the last year"
"Despite the history of past glaring executive incompetence, Edgio's product suite appears in good shape, showing sizable revenue growth in 2023, approaching breakeven EBITDA."
"Despite ~40% of EBITDA coming from attractive midstream assets, Phillips continues to trade like a refiner, missing the value uplift in the midstream space over the last year"
"MGPI's valuation is rich and its financial condition is fragile with no cash and significant leverage on earnings and EBITDA expectations that are likely to sorely disappoint"
"Despite ~40% of EBITDA coming from attractive midstream assets, Phillips continues to trade like a refiner, missing the value uplift in the midstream space over the last year"
"I would prefer the $1 of Cost Synergy because it flows entirely to EBITDA. By contrast, the $1 of Revenue Synergy will likely incur COGS, so less than $1 will flow to EBITDA."
"We estimate the opportunity to improve EBITDA through implementing procurement and supply chain discipline and improving execution around food waste is $75 million, or more."
"We estimate the opportunity to improve EBITDA through implementing procurement and supply chain discipline and improving execution around food waste is $75 million, or more."
"We believe that when SOFI restates this borrowing, it will also restate ~$1 billion of previously reported EBITDA; and, its capital ratios will be restated materially lower."
"Assuming $160mm of cost savings and a valuation multiple of 10x – 10.5x EBITDA, Wendy’s would be worth $49 - $52 per share, a return of 75% - 85% percent from current levels"
"While peer EBITDAR is expected to be in-line with or meaningfully exceed pre-COVID levels, Southwest EBITDAR is expected to be nearly 50% lower despite record travel demand"
"While peer EBITDAR is expected to be in-line with or meaningfully exceed pre-COVID levels, Southwest EBITDAR is expected to be nearly 50% lower despite record travel demand"
"While peer EBITDAR is expected to be in-line with or meaningfully exceed pre-COVID levels, Southwest EBITDAR is expected to be nearly 50% lower despite record travel demand"
"Saputo claims that EBITDA is a measure of cash flow in performing its DCF. However, our analysis shows that EBITDA is a poor proxy for cash flow and converts at around 70%."
"At a $36 price, Borders would trade at 7.5x '08E EBITDAR, only a slight premium to 6.8x, the average of total leverage levels used in several recent retail LBO transactions"
"While peer EBITDAR is expected to be in-line with or meaningfully exceed pre-COVID levels, Southwest EBITDAR is expected to be nearly 50% lower despite record travel demand"
"From there, mid-single digit revenue growth with synergies ramping should drive high-single digit EBITDA growth and double-digit earnings growth for the next several years."
"In apparent contradiction to its down-market positioning, NMC's EBITDA margins are significantly higher than those of Aster and Mediclinic, by about ten percentage points."
"Generac hasn't given explicit margin guidance but was asked twice. Based on the CFO's response, it appears he materially pushed back EBITDA margin expansion expectations."
"Disney appears to have paid 26.5x 2018A EBITDA for Fox’s traditional media assets (excl. Hulu) whereas comparable media transactions were completed at 11.9x LTM EBITDA(1)"
"By aligning advertising spend closer to industry standards at Olive Garden, we estimate Darden could improve EBITDA by $62 million – coupled with an increase in traffic."
"We don't believe Mettler's share repurchase strategy is disciplined, particularly as it buys its stock at 26x EBITDA and 37x book value, and while insiders rapidly sell."
"The Transaction creates immense and instant value because 22% of Target's current EBITDA will be valued at a significantly higher multiple than where Target trades today"
"The Transaction creates immense and instant value because 22% of Target's current EBITDA will be valued at a significantly higher multiple than where Target trades today"
"PWSC trades at 25x its guidance for FY24 EBITDA, adjusted for capitalized software development costs, which is a significant premium to the education technology sector."
"Arconic’s $228 million EBITDA target in 2019 is more than $200 million below original target and, even if achieved, would result in an unacceptable return on investment"
"Our concerns about Adj. EBITDA quality are amplified by the fact that management is heavily compensated on hitting seemingly arbitrary and inflated Adj. EBITDA targets."
"When asked about long-term EBITDA margin potential, we observe that Dycom's former Chairman & CEO's response has become less specific and increasingly vague over time."
"In our opinion, the implied EBITDA multiple of ~20x (based on the purchase price of C$985m and LTM EBITDA ~C$50m) is evidence Canadian Tire over paid for a lousy asset"
"If achieved, the $14 billion 2025E mid-cycle EBITDA target translates to $9 billion of free cash flow, which at a 10% free cash flow yield implies a >$205 share price."
"FTAI’s Aerospace Products EBITDA margins are inflated because hundreds of millions of cash costs are incurred by the Leasing segment rather than in Aerospace Products."
"If achieved, the $14 billion 2025E mid-cycle EBITDA target translates to $9 billion of free cash flow, which at a 10% free cash flow yield implies a >$205 share price."
"In contrast, we have taken a considerably more conservative approach valuing the business based on private market multiples that we understand are 3x to 4x TTM EBITDA."
"Capitalized cash costs are conveniently added-back to both Adj. EBITDA and Non-GAAP EPS. Capitalized software development costs were nearly 18x PP&E Purchases in 2023"
"Weis is currently the highest valued regional supermarket on P/E and EBITDA despite negative organic growth, aggressive accounting and poor governance and disclosures"
"Applying 34x on Crown Castle's U.S. tower business EBITDA implies a value of fiber of only $11B compared to $16B of investment, resulting in $5B of value destruction"
"Doing the math, Arconic should produce at least $12.58 billion of revenue and ~$2 billion of EBITDA in 2017 vs. management’s $12.1 billion and $1.815 billion targets"
"While Sunnova presents Adjusted EBITDA to investors, treating interest and depreciation as non-core expenses, interest plus depreciation exceeds the Company revenue."
"The 2024 refining environment was above the 2012 - 19 average used by PSX to set their mid-cycle refining EBITDA target of $4bn. PSX 2024 refining EBITDA was ~$1bn."
"While Spruce Point does not agree with Sunnova's selected peers, none of the peers use Adjusted EBITDA or adjusted operating cash flow as a metric for compensation."
"While Spruce Point does not agree with Sunnova's selected peers, none of the peers use Adjusted EBITDA or adjusted operating cash flow as a metric for compensation."
"The 2024 refining environment was above the 2012 - 19 average used by PSX to set their mid-cycle refining EBITDA target of $4bn. PSX 2024 refining EBITDA was ~$1bn."
"With the exception of Performance Products, Adjusted EBITDA margin targets presented at the 2021 Investor Day are substantially the same as those presented in 2018"