Contrarian Corpus
activist full deck initial thesis
2006-11-09 · 53 pages

Borders Group, Inc. BGP

N 4 Narrative
V 3 Visual
C 3 Craft
Original source ↗

The three reasons

  1. 1

    Book superstore industry is misunderstood — Amazon risk is exaggerated and superstores have gained share

  2. 2

    High-quality Superstores (29% unlevered ROIC) are obscured by money-losing Mall and International segments

  3. 3

    Aggressive buybacks plus new CEO George Jones should accelerate value creation

Primary demands

  • Monetize low-ROIC Mall Stores (Waldenbooks) and International segments to unlock ~$200mm of NWC
  • Continue/accelerate aggressive share repurchase program (already ~$500mm in 2.5 years)
  • Complete Superstore remodel program to reduce Music exposure and shift to higher-margin Paperchase + Seattle's Best Coffee
  • Allow new CEO George Jones time to rationalize the business and realize full Superstore earnings power

KPIs cited

Current share price
$21 vs. $36 target (72% upside)
EV/2006E EBITDA
6.9x at current price; 7.0x at $36 target
Superstore unlevered ROIC
~29% stabilized ($700k 4-wall EBITDA / $2.4mm invested capital)
Superstore EBITDA margin
Stable 9.6–10.3% over 2001–2005 vs. consolidated 7.4% in 2005
Music share of Superstore sales
22% in 2001 declining to ~11% in 2006
Superstore SSS ex-music
Avg 2.2% vs. reported 0.7% (2001–2005)
Superstore segment share of EBITDA
92% of LTM EBITDA from 68% of LTM revenue
U.S. book industry market share
Superstores rose from 5% (1993) to 27% (2005) alongside Amazon's rise
Share count reduction
78mm (Mar 2004) to 55mm (Jan 2007E) — ~30% reduction
Superstore EBITDA upside
40%+ increase possible by 2008 via mix shift and removal of one-time costs
Mall + International NWC
~$200mm of NWC vs. ~$15mm EBITDA contribution — 'worth more dead than alive'
Remodel ROIC (Year 1)
22.5% on remodel cap ex with 2.6% sales lift and 40bps margin benefit

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Notable slides (8)

Notes

Classic Pershing Square 'misunderstood high-quality hidden inside a conglomerate' thesis, delivered as a long investment case (no villain, collaborative/analytical posture). Title 'Don't Judge a Book By Its Cover' is a strong thematic hook tied to the company. Explicit SCQA — starts with Traditional Sentiment (unattractive industry, 2nd-place operator, limited FCF) then rebuts each point. Clean sum-of-parts reveal on p.46. The 'Superstores as Mini Mall with tenants' framing on p.21 is a memorable reframe. Visually functional institutional deck (Pershing blue title bars, color-coded section headers) — not a top-tier design specimen. Outcome: investment ultimately unsuccessful — Borders declined and filed for bankruptcy in 2011.