Callouts & quotes from 709+ activist slides

"Based on the new strategic direction being chartered in Live Video, and the findings from our interviews, we estimate that the earnings power of Momo Live Video is likely to be impaired by 30%"

"Sartorius AG, a major competitor to Mettler in its Laboratory division, announced a new ERP in 2016, and expects the project to be completed in 2019. We estimate the total cost is EUR 20 - 30m"

"Phillips is far from achieving its 2025 mid-cycle EBITDA target, with analyst's 2026 estimates signaling a major shortfall – despite consensus assuming a reasonable mid-cycle price environment"

"We estimate she has sold ~$70MM of stock; co-founder and SVP Bill Banyai, ~$42MM; CFO Jim Thorburn, ~$15MM; and President/COO Patrick Finn, ~$11MM – a total of $135MM across these four alone."

"We estimate that the GSEs’ minimum capital levels were nearly sufficient to withstand their losses during the financial crisis, excluding the large credit losses from subprime and Alt-A loans"

"Earnings estimates have followed the same path. It’s noteworthy that in 2009, when the stock was less than $50, analysts thought the company would be earning more than $3.00 per share by now."

"If current 2024 consensus estimates prove to be accurate, this would mean that GoDaddy missed its implied 2024 targets from the Investor Day by over $500 million in revenue, over $100 million"

"Per an employee LinkedIn disclosure, Microsoft is $100m of sales, which conveniently equates to ~17% of LTM sales of $606m. Ex: Microsoft sales, we estimate the consumer segment is down 53%."

"Prorating this to 91 days generates a 2Q21 connected store existing home sale GTV estimate of RMB ~233 billion, implying the connected stores' existing home sales GTV was inflated by ~47.2%."

"Even under more conservative estimates regarding the inorganic sales contributions of recently-acquired businesses, management is guiding to very limited organic cloud revenue growth at best"

"Revenue commitments from Baker Hughes were reduced by $40m for FY23 as disclosed in C3's 2Q'22 10-Q filed on December 2, 2021, yet we believe revenue estimates do not reflect this revision."

"Based on SMCI's disclosures, we estimate its Q1 interest expense should have been $2.3 million vs. the $4.0 million cash interest expenses reported at the bottom of its cash flow statement."

"We estimate a grand total of 58% of IONQ’s total bookings reported in 2024, $54.6 million, were unfunded portions of federal contracts that had been awarded via a secret earmarking process."

"However, after subtracting Blackout Bingo’s revenue from the top three games’ total revenue, we estimate that Tether’s top two games sequentially declined by -5.9% sequentially in Q3 2020."

"With sales growth from new products set to plateau and margin expansion opportunities largely exhausted, we believe that Hill-Rom growth and earnings will underperform sell-side estimates."

"We estimate that the unit economics of newly acquired customers have actually gotten worse — from a $10 average loss per customer we estimated back in 2017, to $19 per customer in Q2 2018."

"Verint’s balance sheet, meanwhile – saddled by $650M of net debt at 3x leverage, by our estimates – will likely restrict it from making similarly-sizable investments in cloud capabilities."

"We estimate that pass-throughs embedded in gross bookings have increased materially (from ~27% to ~37% of gross bookings) given the PEO's growth, inflating bookings growth by ~200bps p.a."

"Because ADP participates in SMB, Mid-Market, Enterprise, and International, ADP’s structural margin potential can be best estimated by benchmarking against competitors in each sub-segment"

"Spruce Point believes that this is an egregious overestimate, and we are stunned that the CEO of a near-billion-dollar public company could be so far off on one of his own business lines."

"Company-owned German and Austrian retail business under the JET logo is currently being marketed at a “potential value of $3bn assuming a 10x multiple” according to sellside estimates(2)."

"Company-owned German and Austrian retail business under the JET logo is currently being marketed at a “potential value of $3bn assuming a 10x multiple” according to sellside estimates(2)"

"Zebra has various competitors in different lines of business. However, we will illustrate that the sum-of-parts estimated valuation is materially lower than its current enterprise value."

"We find it concerning that management would make such a weakly supported claim, and that it wasn't even planning on discussing the change in maturity estimate until questioned about it."

"Based on management estimates and our independent research and analysis, we estimate 6% to 8% long-term revenue growth. Our estimate is a slight discount to Valeant management estimates"

"We estimate that Mettler's Adj. Diluted EPS is $1.90 - $2.23 (8.3% - 9.8%) overstated due to aggressive capitalization policies and failures to recognize inventory obsolescence charges."

"While we acknowledge that there is no “perfect” source and some may exclude certain types of claims, we find that none come close to the procedure volume estimate disclosed by Procept."

"We therefore divide the estimated Q2 FY25 overstated inventory amount, which is a cumulative number, by ELF's reported gross margin of 71%. This provides the implied overstated revenue"

"At current g-fee levels of 60bps, we estimate that the GSEs’ guarantee business can generate $146bn of earnings over the next 10 years, including the benefit of future reserve releases"

"Our best estimate, we cannot reconcile $59m and $79m of sales in 2017 and 2018. As a result, we cannot reconcile and estimate operating profit margin inflation of $42 and $52m in 2018."

"Based on current implied run rate revenues of $297m, we estimate Leidos has paid 3.4x sales, or a substantial premium to benchmark deals in the airport security and detection industry."

"Company-owned German and Austrian retail business under the JET logo is currently being marketed at a “potential value of $3bn assuming a 10x multiple” according to sellside estimates"

"To make FIGS LTM Gross Margin more comparable with peers, we deduct “Selling Expenses”. By our estimate, FIGS’ LTM Gross Margin is inflated by 2,040 basis points, from 50.7% to 71.0%."

"Based on Free Cash Flow projections offered in the deal proxy, $1.66 billion was expected for 2019. However, based on our analysis, we estimate actual Free Cash Flow of $489 million."

"Spruce Point finds it very alarming that the weighted-average pull through rate has crept higher since 2020. A higher pull-through rate allows management to estimate higher revenues."

"If we assume each shipment corresponds to one MV3D™ machine, then estimated sales to the distributor are $4.4m - $7.1m, a range not far off from the distributor's 2019 sales increase"

"Were RUN’s basis inflation disallowed on a go forward basis, we estimate that it would have an approximate $0.50 / watt funding gap to fill, which would imperil its ability to grow."

"Spruce Point estimates that Evoqua’s run rate revenue for the quarter would have severely missed Street estimates by ~8%. In addition, Evoqua contributed a $49 million pre-tax loss."

"And when we take a look at AGO's estimates of expected losses to be paid, not much has been reserved for the rest of the U.S. public finance portfolio once you back out Puerto Rico."

"Spruce Point estimates that, by excluding the contribution of Almost Family from organic growth, LHCG has inflated its reported organic growth by close to 500 bps in both Q2 and Q3."

"Spruce Point estimates that, by excluding the contribution of Almost Family from organic growth, LHCG has inflated its reported organic growth by close to 500 bps in both Q2 and Q3."

"So the incremental 100m liters will cost an astounding $200m and total capacity additions from 350m to 1,500m are $1.04 per liter, or 63% higher than our estimated historical cost!"

"Muddy Waters’s survey-based market research estimates that NQ’s actual share of the China security app market is 1.4%, versus NQ’s purported approximate share of approximately 55%."

"Trian estimates that the remainder of the business must grow operating earnings by ~17% to meet guidance; these same segments have seen operating earnings decline by 26% since 2011"

"Sony's current corporate structure obscures the company's underlying asset value, giving investors the opportunity to buy Sony at a ~50% discount to our estimate of intrinsic value"

"Our analysis required significant effort to extract and estimate Ambry Genetics’ quarterly revenues and test volumes due to limited public disclosure by Konica Minolta (“Konica”)."

"All three years produce estimated interest rates of approximately 5% — below SOFI's own Blended Funding Cost of 6.3% and far below the ~13% yield on the underlying personal loans."

"If we exclude bookings growth from Baker Hughes, its 3rd largest shareholder and JV partner, we estimate that core bookings (ex: Baker Hughes) would have been down by -4% to -31%."

"The street estimates the direct overlap to be $1.2 billion of sales, which leaves a cushion to the $1.6 billion that Bayer has agreed to divest if necessary to satisfy regulators."

"However, even if the Display and Search businesses were included together, we estimate that combined business would still be losing almost $300 million on revenue of $931 million."

"Spruce Point believes financial sell-side estimates are too high for Broadridge, and assume there has been no slowdown in business from recent changes in the economic environment."

"Spruce Point believes that Amcor's free cash flow presentation is becoming more aggressive, and that by our estimate, actual free cash flow declined more than 50% YoY in 2H 2019."

"Spruce Point believes that Amcor's free cash flow presentation is becoming more aggressive, and that by our estimate, actual free cash flow declined more than 50% YoY in 2H 2019."

"Across all relevant markets, we estimate an annual licensing opportunity in excess of $500 million using royalty rates in-line with what we believe Tessera has achieved in DRAM."

"Warning: At best, we estimate that Oatly's Gross Margin is on par, to slightly below, its peer plant and dairy specialty foods peers after adjusting for outbound shipping costs."

"Intuit consensus estimates call for 12% revenue growth over the next two fiscal years, suggesting even the sell-side believes the boom from services adoption has run its course."

"Willis Lease Finance (WLFC US) states explicitly the way residual value is calculated, giving quantitative data instead of a vague “estimated fair value of life limited parts.”"

"The three most recent beats (and six times in PGNY's public history) relied on revenue recognized from increased unbilled A/R in order to surpass Wall Street revenue estimates."

"Our conclusion: Either MPWR has a superior ability to manage its business in a cyclical industry, or its numbers are being reported in a way as to never miss analyst estimates"

"Our conclusion: Either MPWR has a superior ability to manage its business in a cyclical industry, or its numbers are being reported in a way as to never miss analyst estimates"