"Management has made numerous excuses for challenges in Argentina over the past decade. However, now that Bunge is extremely optimistic about improvements there from the Viterra acquisition, they won't be providing revenue attribution."
Callouts & quotes from 1,508+ activist slides
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"We expect a substantial re-rating lower in the share price once investors see that revenue programs are disappearing, and critically analyze the quality of the Company’s earnings and its valuation adjusted for significant liabilities."
"Sony is the largest gaming platform in the world by revenue (roughly 2x the size of closest console competitors Nintendo and Microsoft) and well-positioned to benefit from rapid growth in consumer engagement and spending going forward"
"As a result of the acquisition, Americas revenue segment jumped from roughly 37% of total revenues to 53% of total revenues immediately after the Inteliquent acquisition and has continued to grow to over 62% of Sinch's total revenues."
"Nuvei does not draw attention in its press releases to organic growth by region. However, by taking a close look at Nuvei's geographic revenue reporting, we find evidence of single digit organic growth decline in the U.S. and Canada."
"In addition, the Company improperly accounted for other items that overstated net income, including the estimation and recording of self-insurance reserves, its recognition of equipment rental revenues, and its income tax accounting."
"The allegations from a former Revenue Analyst at Dropbox are so specific, it’s hard to believe they aren’t true. Notably, data quality issues, broken systems, and key human capital defections will compound Dropbox’s transition plans."
"Based on recent precedent M&A transactions for property software and analytics companies and clear evidence of challenges with the transaction, we believe MSCI wildly overpaid for RCA at approximately ~13x and 48x revenue and EBITDA."
"Even after crediting INGN with a 10% increase in market share and ignoring the cannibalization of higher-margin DTC sales by increasing B2B sales, which management have admitted is going to occur, INGN is close to revenue saturation."
"Put simply, data collected over months directly from BEKE's platform strongly indicates that the Company is massively exaggerating new home GTV and revenue from its platform, a pattern we also see when we analyze existing home sales."
"Our concerns about REZI's growing rebate reserve are magnified by the fact that for the first time, the definition of net revenue affecting management's short-term bonus accounts for “rebates” and “other customer incentive programs”."
"Spruce Point also interviewed another former employee with knowledge of its M&A practices. A view was expressed that Stryker prioritized revenue over cost synergies and that one of its biggest challenges is its operational footprint."
"Red Cat's management claimed that if you just look at the draft NDAA... "the number" for the SRR funding is $79 million, which the company uses as an indication of what to expect for the first year's revenue generated by the program."
"Why did AMR book negative “other revenue” in the Met segment in Q1 2021? Also, notice carefully that 96% of Met segment sales had been priced by October 29, 2021 and that accounted for 15.1m tons. By year end, 15.57m tons were sold."
"It seems possible that as of 2018 at least, rent24 had been booking significant revenue without cash receipts – if that is a correct interpretation, seemingly the lack of cash flow would eventually become Vivion’s lack of cash flow."
"We believe companies should generate significant operating leverage on revenue growth, evidenced by incremental margins that are substantially higher than consolidated margins – especially software companies with high gross margins"
"Monster is dependent on keeping the perceived value of its equity high because it is the most aggressive issuer of stock-based compensation at 1.2% of revenue and almost ~$15,000 per employee among selected food and beverage peers."
"PERI's revenue per search per day is down 45% since 2019. However, the magnitude of the decline in Q1 2023, which fell 35% and 21% QoQ and YoY, is particularly disturbing and not adequately explained by management. RPM fell by 22%."
"We believe companies should generate significant operating leverage on revenue growth, evidenced by incremental margins that are substantially higher than consolidated margins – especially software companies with high gross margins"
"We have serious concerns about Heska’s management, financials, and competitive positioning, and we don’t believe the scil and CVM businesses acquired for 1.4x and 1.9x revenues only 1.5 years ago are worth substantially more today."
"To reach any meaningful level of profitability, an investor in Procept must assume the Company will: More than triple revenue; Either be used for nearly 175,000 BPH procedures... or hit a home run in a prostate cancer application."
"We are concerned that this could give the Company more opportunities to pull forward revenue and to delay expenses, and perhaps that management is applying percentage-of-completion accounting more widely precisely for this reason."
"Rather, management may not be recognizing acquisition-related revenue in a timely manner, but instead recognizing it gradually over time as a source of apparent organic growth. Again, this would be a much more significant offense."
"Quantumscape's projection of ~$10B in revenue booked in 2027/28 means that VW has to commit to substantial purchases of solid-state batteries by 2022/23 – an absurd notion, given the VW concerns and questions we detailed earlier."
"With a ~$30 billion purchase price, Celgene’s pipeline destroys shareholder value when using the median of Wall Street analysts’ estimates for 2028 Celgene pipeline revenue and a similar discount for earlier-stage pipeline assets"
"As in paid search, while competitors quickly responded to market dynamics, AOL took a short sighted view, generating short-term revenue but not taking the requisite steps to establish a principal position in the growing business."
"The quickest way to increase the value of Yahoo's shares is to do what should have been done 4 years ago and dramatically reduce the headcount and costs of the company to something sustainable matching current revenues and EBITDA"
"Recall earlier in our analysis of the Wright Medical acquisition that we identified revenue contribution anomalies. Stryker's Orthopaedics segment had two acquisitions close in Q4 2020: Wright Medical (Nov) and OrthoSensor (Dec)."
"AST is among the most ambitious yet of its generation of zero-revenue SPACs, and we think its lofty ambitions of providing viable 4G-like mobile internet connectivity to the planet's cell phones will never come close to fruition."
"Spruce Point finds it troubling that GFL restated results and did not notify investors of the change. The large increase of intercompany revenue, and boosting of Solid Waste segment results, is alarming in light of our research."
"We estimate that, when the effects of acquisitions and foreign exchange of acquisitions and foreign exchange movements are removed, Amdocs organic revenue contracted on an annual basis on average over all quarters since Q1 2014."
"We observe that PERI recently retracted key buzzwords from its self-description. However, most alarming is the removal of the reference to the Microsoft Bing partnership which is 35% of revenues and the contract expires in 2024."
"Similar to Amcor’s merger with Bemis, WestRock acquired KapStone in January 2018 in a $5 billion dollar deal. Since announcing the acquisition, shares have fallen over [50%] from continued revenue misses vs. analysts’ estimates."
"Gross margins materially compressed from the 40% - 50% range to 23% in 2019. The compression was from cost of good sold rising much faster than revenues. This could suggest L3Harris pushed high priced product to its distributor."
"The loss of the PPB will undoubtedly hit margins. While the sell-side optimistically projects a gross margin rebound and a reversal in R&D and SG&A as a percentage of revenue, the changes to tax policy make this scenario absurd."
"Our modeling reveals that the average annual reagent revenues per fully installed system is below $40,000 and is trailing down, despite management claiming it to be somewhere around $55,000 (average of $45,000 to $65,000 range)."
"We observe multiple classic signs of financial strain within Genius' financials. From a working capital perspective, as a percentage of revenue, accounts receivable have increased ~5% and deferred revenue has more than doubled."
"If HIMS' business is expanding outside its core men's sexual health and hair, why did HIMS cease disclosing revenue mix? Why hasn't AOV grown more if HIMS is no longer forced to attract customers with massive initial discounts?"
"Warning: There's a 40% delta between Porch's claimed customer lead economics from ISN vs. expert's opinions. $25 vs. $14-$15. Porch's assumed average revenue of $4 per inspection also appears impossible given volume discounts."
"Warning: There's a 40% delta between Porch's claimed customer lead economics from ISN vs. expert's opinions. $25 vs. $14-$15. Porch's assumed average revenue of $4 per inspection also appears impossible given volume discounts."
"Given that Ginkgo steadily draws down the deferred revenue account on its balance to create revenue on its income statement, the prospectus is signaling that related parties will continue to be the source of “growth” in sales."
"With thousands of customers running jobs “every week” at a price of “several thousand” per hour, we would expect $100MM+ revenue. Yet, IONQ reported only $451K of YTD revenue around the time the claims were made in late 2021."
"Recall on the previous slide, G&K revenue guidance was suppressed ~$165-$195 below G&K projections. Is it a coincidence that Cintas actual results came in above the initial range by an amount close to the reduced G&K revenue?"
"It is inconceivable to us that Bo Hu would be able to understate its revenue by over $200 million (or 99.9%) – at over $200 million in annual revenue, Bo Hu would be one of the larger privately-owned businesses in Zhanjiang."
"We observe periods of large divergence in revenue and accounts receivable growth rates at Oatly. This is a classic sign of potential accounting shenanigans and is often cited as a top red flag to predict accounting scandals."
"Dropbox has made generic statements about capital lease additions to be "high single digits as a percentage of revenue". Yet, what it says, and what its financials are signaling, show that it is poised to exceed 2018 levels."
"This analysis factors into our prior analysis to determine the FLAWLESS revenue contribution. We know the contribution of the Passport acquisition to revenues in the 6 months ended June 30, 2019 from SPD Segment disclosures."
"As shown in the chart below, it is common to see blockbuster drugs representing approximately 15-30% of total company revenue at LOE, but REVLIMID at 63% of revenue at LOE is essentially unheard of and poses tremendous risk."
"While the decline of Hill-Rom's third-party rental business may have been gradual, we find the dramatic decline in segment revenue striking, as we do the fact that management received almost nothing in return for the assets."
"In the context of wildly increasing margins being reported by Smart2Pay following the close, we investigated its revenue post closing. Our analysis suggests that Smart2Pay’s revenues declined by approximately 6% in Q1 2021."
"Edgewater's Board has overseen a significant lack of revenue growth, despite making numerous acquisitions, implying the Company's organic revenue growth is poor or acquired companies perform poorly post-acquisition, or both"
"Based on Beijing Mushang Culture's revenues, we estimate that talent agencies likely represented a little less than half of Live Video in 2017, despite management statements about agents being insignificant to the business."
"Here’s the giveaway: the start dates of the 6 Allonnia employees listed on LinkedIn indicate that the first didn’t start until July 2020, meaning Allonnia had no employees at the time Ginkgo booked deferred revenue from it."
"PBH should follow best-in-class practices of disclosing price, volumes, product mix and foreign currency effect. PBH’s filings do not disclose the impact of “volume” on revenues, instead the Company refers to “consumption”."
"We believe that Tempus is extremely dependent on keeping the perceived value of its equity high because it is among the most aggressive issuers of stock-based compensation at 77% of revenue and 283% of operating cash flow."
"Prior to its IPO, Samsara charged for hardware and software separately. However, we believe it migrated to a bundled solution in order to increase the amount of subscription revenue and dress up its financials for the IPO."
"Not only is Oklo's cash level insufficient to fund its long-term capital requirements, as typical for a pre-revenue SPAC in a capital-intensive industry, we believe Oklo lacks sufficient cash to complete its first project."
"Advertising impressions drive revenues for DV. Recent commentary from key players driving digital advertising indicates overall weakness of digital advertising, but strength in foreign markets were DV is poorly positioned."
"It is very concerning to Spruce Point that the largest warrant expense charge was recognized during this pre-announcement period. This raises the potential of expense front-loading to potentially overstate future revenues."
"In light of the recent change of language observed in revenue recognition, we are concerned that ROAD notes that its Critical Audit Matter is Revenue Recognized Over Time Under Uncompleted Long-Term Construction Contracts."