Callouts & quotes from 112+ activist slides

"Management goes to great lengths to convince investors that they’re transparent and respond to investor feedback on more disclosure. However, their statements about being “open to the conversation” seem hallow and their attempts to justify failing to do so (“candidly, I’m not quite sure how much more detail we could provide“) suggests they’re unlikely to increase transparency meaningfully."

"Part II: Twist’s “DNA chip” narrative - 10,000X higher throughput and lower cost - is fraudulent, covering up a manual, labor-intensive, and fatally-flawed manufacturing process crippled by errors, bottlenecks, and pitiful yields – thereby driving gross margins we estimate to be negative, not unlike Theranos which claimed to run blood tests on its “chip” but wasn’t."

"Spruce Point believes PowerSchool’s current share price presents asymmetric downside risk due to growing regulatory risks, a domestic customer base that is struggling to fund necessities, a flawed international growth plan, and nascent personalized learning products that we believe are unlikely to become meaningful contributors to bottom line."

"Smart2Pay’s margin increase is unlikely to be explained by its ability to rationalize its operational footprint. Using the Wayback Machine, we see that even through May 2021, it was still operating out of five global locations. The website has recently been updated and now omits operations in the U.S. and Spain."

"Unlike most bankruptcies where equity holders lose most, if not all, of their value, we believe GGP’s bankruptcy provides the ideal opportunity for a fair and equitable restructuring of the Company that preserves value for all constituents: secured lenders, unsecured lenders, employees, and equity holders"

"SMCI is currently trading at the highest revenue multiple in its sector, likely a reflection of investors perception that it is growing revenues the fastest. However, unlike its peers which have historically solid free cash flow generation, SMCI has not demonstrated any long-term free cash flow ability."

"Given our discussions with former employees and forensic analysis of Stryker’s historical inability to deal with its SG&A and cost bloat, along with rising supply chain and inflation challenges, we view it unlikely that its free cash flow will increase 4.4% in 2022 and that earnings will grow 25.2%."

"Lasertec's reported margin is significantly higher than every one of the five largest semiconductor equipment companies in the world by revenue – even eclipsing ASML's, a $350 billion market cap giant which invented EUV lithography systems and has a real monopoly unlike Lasertec's fictional one."

"Seemingly unlike iRhythm’s Board, we do not believe the same management team that resided over a systematically flawed quality and compliance system should receive extra incentive compensation just to remediate their shortcomings, obey basic medical device laws, and cease endangering patients."

"Warning: MGNI doesn't put earnings call commentary in its 10-Q when discussing revenue trends (eg. Political election, live sports) and is now warning about lower take rates from CTV. MGNI also did not put its apparently strong Q4 commentary in the 10-Q, unlike the prior quarter."

"We believe core earnings is a more accurate metric to measure the financial performance of a specialty finance business. Sunnova's core earnings have continued to decline, and we believe it is unlikely NOVA will ever be able to maintain a sustained level of profitability."

"Unlike other companies with a hardware and software product mix, such as Palo Alto Networks, Alarm.com, Cognex, Axon Enterprise, and Mix Telematics, Samsara reports just one segment, treating its software and hardware offerings as a single performance obligation."

"This created a perverse incentive whereby franchise recruiters would engage in boiler-room sales tactics (described by one former employee as predatory) to get people to sign a franchise agreement, knowing full well that the person was unlikely to follow-through."

"Applying that rate of revenue contraction to each geography implies that areas outside those markets must grow 15% and 20%, respectively, to meet Street consensus, which we believe is unlikely, particularly given Skechers' challenges in the domestic U.S. market."

"According to Bloomberg, only 25.52% of these bonds are owned by institutional investors, implying the remaining 74.48% of this debt is owned by retail investors who are highly unlikely to understand the risk they are taking when investing in these securities."

"It really is that simple. Patients are unlikely to choose to undergo an invasive, expensive surgery with a cumbersome list of restrictions that must be followed for the rest of their life to fix a condition that generally doesn't bother them very much."

"Procept proclaims its vision is to become "the BPH Treatment of Choice For All Prostates", but urologists with whom we spoke believed such a statement amounted to exaggerated marketing hype, and we believe that such a vision is unlikely to be realized."

"Spruce Point believes Healthcare Trust of America, Inc. (HTA or the Company) and its Audit Committee should open an investigation into its reporting of Same-Property Cash NOI, which exhibits virtually no volatility - a statistically unlikely outcome."

"Thus, unlike the coerced loan, presumptive contract rate, and cost of funds approaches, the formula approach entails a straightforward, familiar, and objective inquiry, and minimizes the need for potentially costly additional evidentiary proceedings."

"With significant exposure to global industrial end markets (notably China), we believe it is highly unlikely that results reflect consistent, perfect execution, but rather reflect aggressive accounting and financial practices that aid performance."

"Genius has secured partnerships with a large number of sports leagues in 2020, including 20 new partnerships since the beginning of October. Our conversions with experts reveal these partners are unlikely to pay meaningful cash revenue to Genius."

"Statistically, it is highly unlikely that any new Distributor will cross the gap from bottom to top. The precise statistics require knowing the relative turnover rates in the top and bottom segments. HLF provides minimal data on these rates"

"Spruce Point believes that WSP's backlog is one of the least descriptive among its global peers. Furthermore, unlike Canadian counterparts Stantec and AtkinsRealis (SNC-Lavalin), WSP's backlog differs from remaining performance obligation."

"Because the role of a General Manager is usually to oversee day-to-day operations, given Li Yuxiong’s extensive business in Sichuan, he would seem an unlikely General Manager for BJ Jiyuan Shengbao - unless his real role is to be a proxy."

"This appears suspiciously convenient to us. If these inconsistencies represent honestly misreported numbers which were ultimately revised on the 20-F, it is extremely unlikely that the independent discrepancies would offset exactly."

"Dollarama has zero social media presence, unlike all of its peers. Not only is the Company out of touch with customers in an industry which demands a high level of customer engagement, but its brand is becoming demonstrably stale."

"Soroban's mission is simple: we want UNP to prosper. Unlike typical shareholder engagements which come with numerous demands, Soroban has only one ask: install new leadership who can get the trains to operate safely and on time"

"There is a listing of C3.ai as an AI partner on Amazon's website.(1) However, unlike on Microsoft Azures' marketplace, C3.ai is nowhere to be found or discussed on AWS' marketplace in categories like IoT or Machine Learning."

"Unless NQ chooses to provide the level of transparency that Sino-Forest did and release the actual report, we are unlikely to ever learn details about the tampering because the work is shrouded by attorney-client privilege."

"Based upon its own research, the FTC considers pro forma disclaimers ("Results are not typical") unlikely to be effective to negate testimonials – unless the advertiser presents empirical tests showing non-deception"

"Spruce Point finds managements’ promotion, and the market’s hype, regarding a potential uplisting unlikely to be realized, as ABML does not meet the listing requirements set by either the NYSE or Nasdaq exchanges."

"We believe Genius Sports, an overhyped revenue growth story assumed to benefit from the broader sports betting market, is facing competitive pressure and is unlikely to achieve its stated 25%+ growth targets"

"Unlike many businesses where investment spending works toward building a durable asset, a franchise value, and a recurring revenue stream, here the Capex goes toward reducing the assets one barrel at a time."

"Spruce Point believes it is unlikely that Dropbox is a takeover target for a strategic buyer, and that it is not yet cheap enough, and would be an unusually large deal, for technology-focused private equity."

"Unlike traditional cow’s milk that is costly to make and requires pasteurization, oat milk can be made at home with two simple ingredients (oats and water) at a lower cost than purchasing product at retail."

"Investors should be alarmed that unlike most of its peers, Samsara does not provide the most basic level of transparency on key performance indicators such as net subscriber additions and customer churn."

"We believe it is unlikely Genius' partner leagues would pay the assigned values for these services (e.g. software, integrity services) which are currently being offered by Genius to the leagues for free"

"We believe it is unlikely Genius' partner leagues would pay the assigned values for these services (e.g. software, integrity services) which are currently being offered by Genius to the leagues for free"

"And CONSOL can afford to be patient. The company owns much of this land outright, so unlike many of its peers it doesn’t pay royalties and it doesn’t need to drill in order to maintain its rights."

"Investors should be further alarmed that, unlike other large IoT public companies, it does not have a Clawback Policy to recoup unjust compensation in the event of fraud or financial misstatement."

"This new forecast does not provide much specificity in guidance, and unlike in 2023 where IPX showed projected annual powder production, the current forecast provides no such production guidance."

"Our price target is based on the nature of a business unlikely to meet the market's overly optimistic expectations of captured market share, GGR revenue share and inflated target EBITDA margins."

"Keisei's target for a minimum payout ratio of 10% is substantially below disclosed expectations from Japanese and non-Japanese investors, combined with no buyback programme unlike most peers"

"Starbucks is unlikely to achieve even the low end of its long-term SSS target in 2018 (9M'18 SSS were 2%; guidance for Q4'18 is 3%), causing concern the company will reduce targets further"

"The expert assured us Baosteel has NEVER used RINO's CFB method in any of its FGD projects and is very unlikely to use it in the future due to the following problems in their technology:"

"Joby's partnership is anchored by contracts with a total potential value of $163 million. Unlike notional contract ceilings, Joby's engagement has translated into concrete deliverables."

"We believe this plan is unlikely to succeed and is an attempt by management to gloss over the fact that its core North American market will likely experience major headwinds in 2025."

"In this situation, unlike a typical M&A process, it appears that the buyer forced a rushed process with limited due diligence, in order to complete the deal by an arbitrary deadline."

"As a result of the Board’s numerous failures, Engine has reached the conclusion that Parkland is unlikely to reach its full potential as a public company and should consider a sale."

"Unlike the incumbents, the proposed CEO and COO’s compensation structure will minimize salary, put the vast majority of compensation at risk and tie management’s payout to results."

"Muddy Waters is short Chinook Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:KDNY) because we believe it is highly unlikely that atrasentan, its lead product candidate, will be approved by the FDA."

"There will undoubtedly be a surge of pent-up travel activity following the vaccine, but do not be fooled – corporate travel is unlikely to return to 2019 levels anytime soon."

"Pershing Square exited our position in Hilton earlier this year as we expect prospective returns are unlikely to meet our high return threshold given current valuation levels"

"White Diamond’s New Findings will prove why AXDX’s Pheno system is unlikely to realize the revenue the street is expecting. The issues we have found have been missed by most."

"Given TFS is unlikely to be able to obtain finance due to its poor corporate governance, we believe it will not have sufficient capital to maintain plantations to maturity."

"We believe that it is unlikely that Disney can realize its full potential if it refuses to sufficiently right-size expenses in legacy businesses that are growth challenged"

"We believe that it is unlikely that Disney can realize its full potential if it refuses to sufficiently right-size expenses in legacy businesses that are growth challenged"

"Unlike the shipping expense which varies depending on the quantity of product ordered and whether or not distributors pick up the product, the 7% Surcharge is fixed"

"Even if sell-side margin expansion estimates include assumed M&A, future acquisitions are unlikely to be sufficient to support consensus margin expansion estimates"

"KLA locked up the mask inspection space long ago with its Teron DUV systems – giving it a well-entrenched monopoly unlike the imaginary one Lasertec claims in EUV."