Contrarian Corpus
activist conference presentation initial thesis
2018-10-09 · 43 pages

Starbucks SBUX

N 4 Narrative
V 3 Visual
C 3 Craft
Original source ↗

The three reasons

  1. 1

    Dominant global coffee brand trading at 22x forward P/E vs. 26x historical average

  2. 2

    China is single-largest unit growth opportunity, can ultimately exceed U.S. footprint

  3. 3

    $14bn buyback plan plus mid-teens EPS growth implies shares can more than double

Primary demands

  • Continue accelerated ~$14bn share repurchase program (~18% of market cap over two years)
  • Execute remedial actions to reinvigorate U.S. same-store-sales growth
  • Accelerate China unit growth (toward 6,000 stores by 2022 and ultimately surpassing the U.S.)
  • Maintain focus on core coffee business (following Nestle CPG divestiture and Teavana closure)

KPIs cited

Forward P/E multiple
22.1x today vs. 24.4x 10-yr, 26.7x 5-yr, 25.9x 3-yr averages
10-year annualized TSR
SBUX 26% vs. S&P 500 13%
3-year share-price return
Shares down 6%, 0% total return despite ~50% EPS growth
U.S. new-unit pretax ROI
66% for SBUX vs. 38% for Taco Bell
China new-unit pretax ROI
86% for SBUX vs. 59% for KFC
U.S. new-unit payback period
1.5 years vs. 2.7 for Taco Bell
Store-level EBITDA margin
30% U.S. / 37% China on new units
Global specialist coffee-shop market share
46.2% for SBUX — 15x the #2 player and 3.5x the other top-10 combined
Systemwide sales
$32bn at SBUX vs. $9bn Dunkin' and $7bn Tim Hortons
Long-term U.S. SSS growth
5% historical average '05-'17; decelerated to 2% in 9M'18
Coffee M&A transaction multiples
16.0x avg EV/EBITDA on $100bn+ deals since 2012 vs. SBUX 13.3x
Announced share repurchases
~$14bn over next two years, ~18% of market cap
Projected 2018E-2022E EPS CAGR
14% base case incl. dividends, 19% upside case
China unit growth
3,500 today → 6,000 by 2022E (management target); long-term potential 14,400+

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Notable slides (8)

Notes

Code-named 'Doppio' on cover — Pershing Square's internal nickname for the SBUX investment. Presented at Grant's Interest Rate Observer Fall 2018 conference. This is an atypical Pershing deck: a friendly long thesis rather than an adversarial activist campaign. PS already owned 15.2M shares at ~$51 avg cost and is broadly supportive of CEO Kevin Johnson's actions (portfolio restructuring, $19bn buyback, Nestle CPG sale). No board demands, no management criticism — classic Sohn/idea-conference format. Before/after framing appears in 'Previous vs. Revised' long-term-target table (p.30) and implied in historical vs. current P/E comparison. No sum-of-parts because valuation is single-multiple P/E-based. Closing thesis (p.43) uses a stacked-color-block summary visual similar to Ackman's other pitch decks.