"The UK businesses (£3.92bn revenue) are much larger than Greyhound (£0.65bn revenue), and we believe the operational benefits of a UK turnaround are far greater than the potential upside from Greyhound that may be foregone from a sale today"
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"Avery Dennison faces significant long and short-term headwinds across its offerings' end-markets. We believe these headwinds will continue to intensify as competition increases, resulting in declining sales and further pressure on margins."
"MacLellan failed to disclose his role at PortaCom Wireless. While his tenure occurred over 20 years ago, we believe his role as CEO of a company that declared bankruptcy is material as an event where shareholders were significantly harmed."
"Based on our conversations with urologists, CMS has implemented more restrictive guidelines for approving Aquablation, requiring additional tests be performed before granting approval. We believe this may slow Aquablation procedure growth."
"Spruce Point believes there are intercompany sales and purchases between Xylem and Evoqua, as well as competition overlap, but that the merger proxy fails to adjust for these transactions when depicting the pro forma combined organization."
"We believe Skechers deserves to trade a substantial discount to comparable apparel companies, particularly in light of its deteriorating financial performance and governance issues. We see 30% to 50% downside risk to Skechers’ share price."
"Spruce Point believes that WSP's backlog is one of the least descriptive among its global peers. Furthermore, unlike Canadian counterparts Stantec and AtkinsRealis (SNC-Lavalin), WSP's backlog differs from remaining performance obligation."
"We believe this share price decline sends two clear messages: 1) PepsiCo is worth more and would be run better as two separate companies; and 2) the Board and management's decision not to separate goes against shareholders' best interests."
"Given our concerns about the reliability of Kornit's financials, we believe the most conservative way to value the Company is on its revenues and cash flow, both of which we believe will normalize for the large Amazon contribution in 2018."
"Part 8. The NOP service, we believe, traffics in and pushes unsafe, damaged organs rejected by reputable centers, as an unplaced organ means loss of device and aircraft fees; with TransMedics allegedly concealing adverse organ information."
"Spruce Point believes the market is under-estimating the likelihood of rising churn from recent price increases, sales and marketing costs to acquire new customers, and increasing deferred capex / lease repayment costs in the coming year."
"Rollins has been increasing its discussion of auto accidents and insurance as a headwind to margins, and recently modified its Critical Audit Matter discussion on the topic. We believe this will continue to weigh on margins going forward."
"Given our concerns about the reliability of Aerojet’s Adjusted EBITDAP, we believe the most conservative way to value the Company is on its revenues, which we can estimate with insights from the defense budget and current rocket programs."
"We are short the securities of TeliaSonera because we believe information that is being withheld from investors, along with the current board and management's (in)actions, will significantly impact the company's shares and credit profile."
"Beyond questioning the novelty of the HYDROS “AI”, one surgeon even believes that the added workload of a surgeon using HYDROS might actually LENGTHEN procedure time. This calls into question one of the bull case arguments around HYDROS."
"We believe LongHorn needs to reduce the prep items that customers are not giving them credit for, and focus their labor efforts on what customers actually care about. Estimated total savings from reducing prep costs is $6.5 – $12 million"
"We believe LongHorn needs to reduce the prep items that customers are not giving them credit for, and focus their labor efforts on what customers actually care about. Estimated total savings from reducing prep costs is $6.5 – $12 million"
"Spruce Point believes that frequent segment shuffling is a classic red flag and we find that Zebra has made multiple shuffles. When we evaluate the revisions, we see that it has twice moved product lines that exhibited declining margins."
"We believe there are numerous reasons why HIMS revenue multiple is likely to contract closer to its e-commerce peer group and see potential for 25% - 40% downside risk, and more if regulators were to take issue with HIMS operating model."
"With ~$11bn of debt maturities coming due by 2012, we note that Simon has meaningful liquidity risk. We believe that Simon’s current valuation reflects a downward adjustment for liquidity risk and the likelihood of future equity dilution"
"We believe Fairfax arranged and provided financing for Seaspan (which Fairfax had invested more than $1 billion into) to acquire APR Energy in February 2020, allowing Fairfax to remove APR Energy and avoid booking $109 million of losses."
"But all the investors who think that way – well, they'd better not listen to what Scott Galloway, or someone like him, has to say. If you believe what they say is true, then the fire won't be burning much longer for companies like yours."
"We believe this is a strong indicator that UFPT’s drape sales to ISRG have peaked. In our opinion, this is a significant problem for UFPT as their main source of revenue growth has disappeared with the company now facing declining sales."
"We believe the new BDC (ACAP) will have inferior returns relative to peers because it has lower asset yields and a higher cost structure. As a result we believe this investment will continue to trade at a deep discount to its book value"
"Spruce Point believes that this reflects the sell side's lack of understanding of the business' true underlying economics: analysts' price targets reflect a level of earnings power which the Company cannot sustain through the long-term."
"We compare Rollins’ valuation with a broad set of residential and commercial service companies. We expect Rollins’ margins to contract and its top-line growth to normalize. As a result, we believe its excessive multiple should contract."
"Our long idea is AerCap Holdings N.V., ticker AER. AerCap is the largest and, in our view, the best managed independent lessor. In a market with few bargains, we believe that the stock is cheap and offers a good risk-reward opportunity."
"Spruce Point believes investors should carefully consider that in the past three years, related-party distributions have exceeded the total investment made in the Company through capex, R&D and acquisitions by approximately $44 million."
"If management becomes more bearish about a recovery, it can reduce capacity further and shrink the cost base. We believe that if the business were right-sized to the current sales base of ~$3.3bn, EBIT margins could be approximately 10%"
"In our opinion, the paper exemplifies what we believe to be a 20+ year pattern of scientific and clinical dishonesty by the inner circle that pop ups repeatedly in Bioprojet’s key papers and trials, all of whom are authors on the paper."
"We believe that lingering stigma around entering such environments could slow dental office activity for months into the future, given that the disease itself is not expected to disappear until later this year at the absolute earliest."
"We believe that although third-party ownership will not disappear as the market continues to shift towards loans, companies such as Sunnova that rely heavily on volume and economics of third-party ownership will be negatively affected."
"We believe the HIMS platform is designed and optimized to generate prescriptions for low-risk drugs. We believe these issues present a serious obstacle to expanding into more treatment-intensive and higher stakes health practice areas."
"Elliott believes Phillips 66 is deeply undervalued. We see $19bn of trapped value relative to sum-of-the-parts value of its assets and another $7bn of value from improved operations and additional value from the sale of non-core assets"
"Mettler claims that it has a diversified customer base, with no single end-customer accounting for 1% of sales. However, we believe Pitney Bowes is s meaningful customer that accounts for about 6% of Mettler's annual imports by weight."
"We believe the merits of the plaintiffs' lawsuit are strong and believe there is a high degree of probability that the Court will rule in their favor requiring Forward Air to hold a pre-closing shareholder vote on the Omni acquisition."
"Spruce Point believes all of Rubicon Project's growth opportunities have petered out or failed to materialize. This explains why we believe it needed to seek a merger partner in Telaria, which had at least one revenue driver being CTV."
"However, we believe this arbitrage is firstly unsustainable and secondly about to fall apart, because our findings imply that IIPR will in fact have to finance the 2020 dividend from capital raises or reduce the dividend substantially."
"As we’ve demonstrated, Nuvei’s revenue is low quality (already being restated) and growth has come from inorganic acquisitions and higher risk (and margin) business which will we believe will revert towards lower margin in the future."
"At or around the current valuation, we believe Match should be using 75% or more of its free cash flow, plus some or all of the approximately $900 million of available capacity under its 3.0x net leverage target, to repurchase shares."
"We therefore believe the primary reason SOFI has grown this portfolio so aggressively is because the Day 1 gains are the single largest source of recurring paper income available to management on terms that satisfy the comp structure."
"Ancora believes Mr. Wolf's extensive leadership experience, together with his management and financial experience, will enable him to provide the Company with valuable executive insights will make him a valuable addition to the Board."
"Starboard believes the Series A Financing has no bona fide business purpose given the Issuer's substantial cash balance and was done solely to entrench the Board and "buy the vote" ahead of a potential election contest with Starboard."
"I do believe it was slightly manipulated...Off-label, certainly people could use it...you’re completely right. If this is really such a good drug, people can use diazoxide and suspension exactly the same way for pennies on the dollar."
"We believe that HDClear may represent a best in class noise cancellation technology algorithm and that DSP should be actively looking to license this technology to smartphone companies, rather than, or in addition to, building a chip."
"Warning: Based on public commentary, and patent applications pending, we believe it is only a matter of time until Impossible Foods enters the non-dairy milk category, which we believe will put further competitive pressures on Oatly."
"The allegations from a former Revenue Analyst at Dropbox are so specific, it’s hard to believe they aren’t true. Notably, data quality issues, broken systems, and key human capital defections will compound Dropbox’s transition plans."
"We do not believe that Saputo deserves a multiple commensurate with the larger branded players in the industry such as Danone or Kraft Heinz given its weaker margin profile, declining transparency, high leverage and fragile dividend."
"Spruce Point believes there is significant downside risk to Monster's share price as its premium multiple is reconsidered by institutional investors in the face of our strong evidence to indicate that it is masking growing pressures."
"Based on recent precedent M&A transactions for property software and analytics companies and clear evidence of challenges with the transaction, we believe MSCI wildly overpaid for RCA at approximately ~13x and 48x revenue and EBITDA."
"Bunge has instability in its leadership with its “World-Class Leadership Team” from 2020 having seen more than one-third turnover in key roles. Now the team is described as “Best-In-Class” which we believe is a much weaker qualifier."
"Pershing Square believes Herbalife is a pyramid scheme because, among other reasons, distributors earn more than 10 times as much from recruitment as they do by selling the company’s overpriced products to bona fide retail customers."
"Spruce Point believes LSPD purposefully avoids talking about quantifying payments margins. Even when asked directly by analysts, management gives long-winded answers and indirect responses suggesting things are fine and will improve."
"Wise also appears to have convinced artificial intelligence models that it is the #1 money remittance company. As adoption of these models to inform decisions increases, we believe Remitly will be challenged to attract new customers."
"We believe the Street has failed to capture accounting gimmicks to boost CHD’s 2018 EBITDA. Analysts simply take CHD’s recent annual results at face value, and use it as a base-line for future year EBITDA growth and margin expansion."
"Pershing Square believes Herbalife is a pyramid scheme because, among other reasons, distributors earn more than 10 times as much from recruitment as they do by selling the company’s overpriced products to bona fide retail customers."
"We believe that the Merial-based estimate is most applicable to PetIQ, given that pet owners cannot take their pets into Walmart, making PetIQ wellness centers more like stand-alone wellness centers than Banfield’s in-store clinics."
"If Val-gan’s durable portfolio were valued within the range of multiples of businesses that we believe to be comparable, and the cliff portfolio were valued on the DCF analysis presented, then Val-gan’s multiple would be as follows:"
"UEC’s Chairman of the Board does not put on his biography his prior role at C3 Energy (ultimately becoming C3.ai) which we believe has become the poster-child and case study of promotional, speculative, and serial AI disappointment."
"If you believe Mettler, it is able to navigate rapidly changing business cycles with limited backlog, unexpected currency revaluations, commodities, disappointing acquisitions, and trade wars without ever missing quarterly earnings."