Callouts & quotes from 226+ activist slides

"Our indicative analysis suggests FIGS' SOM could be more than 50% smaller than our calculation of its oft-quoted TAM. Thus, FIGS' 2025 revenue objective of $1 billion could imply as high as 50% market share, which we find unrealistic."

"Spruce Point takes issue with this chart as it suggests the Company has transitioned from a "product investment" phase to a "product innovation" phase. Yet, the Company still warns that it does not have a meaningful patent portfolio."

"Assuming PF McDonald’s owns the land and building of 37% of its system wide units and owns the buildings of 22% of its system wide units, then a preliminary valuation of McDonald’s real estate suggests a value of $33 billion."

"In the context of wildly increasing margins being reported by Smart2Pay following the close, we investigated its revenue post closing. Our analysis suggests that Smart2Pay’s revenues declined by approximately 6% in Q1 2021."

"Management's choice to instead consistently refrain from breaking out inorganic sales, even when this figure could feasibly be deduced from publicly-available data, suggests that the Company is being purposefully evasive."

"Our report only indicates that the evidence collected through this outreach solely suggests that certain local hotels were willing to knowingly offer accommodation in ways that could materially facilitate illegal conduct."

"PGNY's presentation of its treatment protocol suggests it is the right course for all patients, ignoring that highly variant fertility issues and diagnoses require a highly individualized approach to reproductive health."

"Valuation of other commercial service and public safety companies suggests that Cintas is materially overvalued. Investors receive neither above market sales, earnings growth, or a dividend for Cintas' valuation premium."

"Our bull case scenario suggests that HSIC would be worth $126 representing +50% upside. Our bull case illustrates the upside of HSIC shares today should Vets First Corp be awarded the highest multiple in its peer group."

"The Company disclosed its SSR growth rate of 1.2% in 2016. Our industry normalized definition of same store property performance suggests that that SSR declined by 0.8% in that period – an astounding 2.0% overstatement."

"The valuation of PF McDonald's suggests a valuation range of $45–$50 per share. Based on the midpoint of the valuation analysis, PF McDonald's could be worth $47.50 per share, a 44% premium over where it trades today."

"This strongly suggests that organic growth since FY15 has been flat at best, and severely negative at worst. Management’s lack of clarity regarding underlying organic sales growth is suspicious to us in this context."

"The CFO is on public record stating that China’s profitability is above its corporate average and it feels good about growth and profitability there. Our on the ground research suggests a markedly different story."

"The ex-employee’s color is consistent with an attempt to cover-up the cardiac-related hospitalizations, and suggests that the drug’s edema profile - "fluid overload, fluid imbalance" - is a looming safety debacle."

"In fact, while Dropbox reports churn rates in the "mid-teens," our survey suggests that close to 30% of users are either moderately or very likely to switch to a competing platform due to its recent price hikes."

"This disclosure strikes us as troubling because it suggests that MSCI actually capitalized software development costs that were not purely for internal use, but rather were tied to external client product sales."

"The sequence of events suggests a potential attempt to conceal the severity of the event, as the initial adverse event report by the physician and company did not appear to mention the patient was hospitalized."

"We enlarged the QS fast charge curve (blue) and the lithium ion one (gray) – blue QS data points are perfectly, evenly spaced which suggests they are fabricated, while gray data points appear to be actual data"

"After prorating our data to the number of days in the 3rd quarter, we estimate that Lianjia’s existing home sales GTV was approximately RMB ~161 billion in 3Q21, which suggests BEKE inflated the GTV by ~15%."

"Management is never explicit about the contribution of acquisitions to sales growth, and frequently suggests that no growth is attributable to acquisitions even in periods in which it conducts material M&A."

"The limited commentary Weis provides investors suggests everything is great. The Board even declared 2017 a year of “financial and operational success” → Spruce Point’s forensic analysis suggests otherwise."

"NQ's physical and online presence in China is at best anemic. NQ's inability to cultivate a sales ecosystem suggests that neither retailers nor consumers are interested in selling or buying NQ products."

"The fact that the Isteq source was available prior to the ACTIS A150 launch in 2019/2020 suggests that Lasertec evaluated it years ago and concluded it was inferior to the Ushio source they first chose."

"The fact that the Isteq source was available prior to the ACTIS A150 launch in 2019/2020 suggests that Lasertec evaluated it years ago and concluded it was inferior to the Ushio source they first chose."

"Twist’s “chip” and purported secret sauces is actually “their Achilles’ Heel”; executive has “thought so for many years”; suggests ditching the chip and switching to legacy synthesis technology instead"

"Our research suggests both pillars seem unrealistic: it appears that DigitalGlobe is more likely to see prices decreases on the NGA contract and opportunities outside of U.S. government appear limited"

"Our research suggests that Mobius has been a disappointment, and had significant challenges ramping up. This supports our concern as to why Stryker made milestone payments when clear problems existed."

"Spruce Point believes this is an unusually short earnout period. We observe that no contingent consideration was paid by Generac in Q1 2022 which suggests that Off Grid failed to hit its milestones."

"The case narrative is murky and suggests the initial report via the company and/or physician’s office may have tried to downplay or cover-up the seriousness of the event and deflect responsibility."

"Despite 32% of revenues reported in the United States, only 9.2% of earnings before tax are attributable to the United States. We believe this suggests an aggressive tax structure used by Mettler."

"We think the total lack of progress on this suggests that a) Aurora is well aware that its guidance is just aspirational promotion and b) there's just no serious party willing to invest the money."

"In a vacuum, such selling behavior would be innocuous. However, viewed in the context of BUR's other misleading behavior, this pattern suggests a means by which the company boosts reported income."

"After years of promoting the overlap with PCC, Arconic management now claims they are "structurally different." But a close examination of their "evidence" suggests an admission against interest."

"DuPont’s inability to deliver on Kullman’s agenda suggests that she needs more help to overcome the 100+ years of history and the inertia that comes with that; Trian can be Kullman’s best ally."

"This factor, along with REZI now signaling that third party services are being used to develop products, suggests to us that any revenue uplift from new product introductions is likely to slow."

"Monster does not say what the revenue contribution from these purchased customer relationships is which suggests that its organic revenue growth could potentially be challenged and overstated."

"However, a check online indicates that approximately 78%-95% of the boots are >$100 which suggests that BOOT is stuck with a significant quantity of high-priced inventory that is not selling."

"We have serious concerns that Amcor is restating interest income amounts. This suggests cash control issues, and casts the reliability of Amcor’s reported cash on its balance sheet in doubt."

"This contasts with the ANTA Prospectus description of Mr. Hong Yanqing as an independent third party; likewise, it suggests that the two Wus are Anta managers, not independent distributors."

"We show additional photos of the loading dock, which suggests no activity ahead of a purported ramp-up, as well as various angles of the parking lot that indicate it is basically deserted."

"It is natural for growth to be relatively higher in acquisition periods, but these figures suggest that Amdocs' organic growth rate is lower than management suggests and analysts believe."

"The new dataset contains both HbA1c and fasting glucose charts, but it appears someone forgot to alter the fasting glucose one - which suggests to us that the HbA1c data is a fabrication."

"The growth in these types of workarounds (system violations, at present) strongly suggests that the current allocation system is not optimized to efficiently match organs with a patient"

"Spruce Point likes investing situations where the data suggests a favorable risk/reward. Numerous academic studies and recent performance suggests that spin-offs outperform the market."

"Independent analysis suggests that the U.S.'s $100 billion home-sale commission TAM could be reduced by as much as 30%-50% due to changes that will likely be brought on by the verdict."

"Independent evidence and field work (including agent interviews) strongly suggests that BEKE's realized commission rates are meaningfully lower than the figures reported to investors."

"We believe that RUN uses disallowed costs as part of its tax basis. Our Adjusted Cost Approach valuation suggests that RUN’s Cost Approach Tax Model valuation is overstated by 25.7%."

"Management's public commentary suggests that (a) investors benefit from its conglomerate structure and (b) the Company has achieved its stated operating goals. Neither claim is true"

"Our technical expert, however, suggests that Silver Sand is not a world-class silver deposit based on drilling to date and evidence suggests that exploration upside may be limited."

"The disconnect between branding and financial reality suggests the name change was more about capitalizing on market trends than reflecting meaningful business transformation."

"Spruce Point cannot recommend investing in a company where the CEO makes headlines for large compensation while “flexing” his muscles. This suggests extreme managerial hubris."

"This chart strongly suggests that management is lying about its purported growing average subscription period, steady ARPU, growing number of paying subscribers, or all three."

"The similarity between both the light source and particle contamination issues for Lasertec's DUV and EUV products suggests a fatally flawed and defective technology platform."

"The similarity between both the light source and particle contamination issues for Lasertec’s DUV and EUV products suggests a fatally flawed and defective technology platform."

"This suggests that the growth in the total agents in of the end of 2020, 28.5% of its labor force were either coming from labor dispatching agencies, or were simply invented."

"For every dollar in biological assets, Trulieve is able to generate the least amount of dollar sales. This strongly suggests that the mark-up on these assets is overstated."

"Our simple regression analysis linking valuation to organic growth rate among IT outsourcing peers suggests 40% to 50% downside (approximately $24.50 to $29.50 per share)"

"We believe the Board conducted an incomplete analysis of Dr. Beckerle’s independence and a consideration of all the facts suggests Dr. Beckerle is clearly not independent"

"The timing of these acquisitions and the shift in rhetoric suggests management was aware of the impending disaster in Brazil and were now scrambling to dilute its impact."

"Valuing WSP's shares in-line with industry peers to reflect rising fundamental challenges and financial strains suggests 25%-50% downside risk (C$110 – C$165 per share)."