Callouts & quotes from 709+ activist slides

"We are highly confident BWLD could refranchise their owned stores at a multiple of 6.0x or higher and estimate a refranchising process to 90% could take as few as 18-24 months"

"We have assumed that no incremental debt would be issued at McOpCo as of 9/30/2005 on top of the estimated $3 billion required to repatriate earnings from foreign territories."

"At the peak of the market, only 15% of mortgage originations had private mortgage insurance and we estimate that PMI coverage totaled only ~2% of outstanding mortgage balances"

"We estimate that, with proceeds from asset sales deflating reported capex, Amdocs' free cash flow has been overstated by between $5M and $30M on an annual basis since FY 2016."

"We estimate the opportunity to improve EBITDA through implementing procurement and supply chain discipline and improving execution around food waste is $75 million, or more."

"We estimate the opportunity to improve EBITDA through implementing procurement and supply chain discipline and improving execution around food waste is $75 million, or more."

"Though PepsiCo does not disclose its international beverage margin (1/3 of sales), we estimate its global beverage business has a 12% EBIT margin – well below beverage peers"

"Per those estimates, if Mosten won its trial and was able to deposit $1 billion into the Carrier Fund, using Manulife's own numbers, that could mean a loss of $450 million."

"Ballard claims a backlog order book of $264m (1); we estimate that announced China projects (assuming most are still live) account for $204m or 78% of the company’s backlog"

"If we assume Fox's gross margins are comparable, by our estimate, Rollins 40bps year-over-year gross margin improvement is solely attributable to the contribution from Fox."

"Awarding $5 in share gains to what we estimate is only $1.18/share in total value, from Lumen's role as general contractor on a massive construction project, is just silly."

"We believe YTD share price declines greatly underestimate how quickly President Trump can act to drive a re-rating of shares and unveil a taxpayer asset worth ~$300 billion"

"Our North American operating expense estimate including SBC represents 45.4% of revenue, and thus an increase of over 180 basis points over pre-scil expense levels in 2019."

"Spruce Point is concerned that at IPX's stated production scale goal of 10,000 tpa, we estimate the Company would be ~20% - 30% of the global annual titanium scrap market."

"In 3 of the last 4 quarters, the conversion was 26-30% - indicating that 70% of reported net income is just accrual estimates and assumptions in a spreadsheet versus cash."

"Applying 8x our estimate of 2028E EBIT (incl. stock-based comp), and subtracting year-end 2025E net debt, implies a fair value of $13 per share, representing 88% downside."

"We estimate that Monolithic has spent $126m on land and properties, which dwarfs spending on M&A and share repurchases, and is surpassed only by $192m spent on dividends."

"We estimate that this defection and competition will decrease 2022E revenue by 35% and levered free cash flow by 80%, while net leverage should balloon to more than 8.0x."

"The biggest recent change is that revenue is no longer reduced by estimated amounts due to its credit card partner. This could be a lever used to inflate current revenue."

"By aligning advertising spend closer to industry standards at Olive Garden, we estimate Darden could improve EBITDA by $62 million – coupled with an increase in traffic."

"Spruce Point estimates that, even if management were to exhaust its stated M&A capacity, Hill-Rom would still materially underperform consensus top-line growth estimates"

"Spruce Point estimates that, even if management were to exhaust its stated M&A capacity, Hill-Rom would still materially underperform consensus top-line growth estimates"

"However, as shown below, Autodesk's projected underlying incremental margins compare poorly to peers when adjusting for the estimated impact of the workforce reduction."

"Note that our estimated downside to patient growth could be conservative given Dexcom customers' price sensitivity and propensity to switch as revealed by our survey."

"The Board decided to spend an estimated $100mm+ of shareholder money engaging in a proxy contest, while 8 out of 11 Directors have not even met Nelson Peltz in person"

"Without the assistance of revenue acquired in Q4, we estimate that Verint would have missed its Q4 revenue guidance for FY19 (as of Q3) by a significant $9.6M (-2.9%)"

"Without the assistance of revenue acquired in Q4, we estimate that Verint would have missed its Q4 revenue guidance for FY19 (as of Q3) by a significant $9.6M (-2.9%)"

"So, athena missed its top and bottom line estimates, and the stock almost quintupled in the three years through early March of this year. What might explain the move?"

"By reclassifying this as an operating expense and cash flow reduction, consistent with industry peers, we estimate WSP's adj. free cash flow conversion is 36% - 41%."

"Spruce Point estimates that there are upwards of 41,000 people selling C3's product suite. Yet, its revenue results imply a meager $5,100 of revenue per salesperson."

"Based on the multiples implied by the precedent transactions reviewed, a range of 10.0x - 11.5x 2006PF OIBDA was estimated for the wholly-owned cable systems of TWC."

"Core bragging about a 32% increase on what we estimate to be 10-15% of its total revenue is a bit like Congress bragging about a 32% increase in its approval rating."

"We adjust RUN’s balance sheet and non-GAAP metrics due to its failure to reserve for panel removal liabilities, which we estimate are at present value $668 million."

"Does not have direct access to docks for export given existing Sweeny docks are utilized by NGL facilities; estimated to lower profits by ~3c/gal on ~25% of exports"

"We estimate 40%–55% long-term potential downside risk to RELY’s shares and expect it to underperform the financial services industry and the broader equity market."

"Even if sell-side margin expansion estimates include assumed M&A, future acquisitions are unlikely to be sufficient to support consensus margin expansion estimates"

"“Repaying” loans by saddling CPI PG with an estimated over €220 million of progress payments, enabling Vitek to likely cream another €118 million from bondholders."

"After adjusting for our estimate of aggressively booked segment income, we find that Burford's combined 2019 operating profit is overstated by approximately 8.0%."

"Sell-side estimates are now imputing FY23 growth of 40% for C3.ai customers outside of the Baker Hughes JV. Prior to the 3rd amendment, the imputed growth was 18%"

"At the current levels of g-fees and a historical level of credit losses, we estimate the GSEs' guarantee business alone could generate long-term earnings of $16bn"

"There is a growing risk to Floor & Decor from Donald Trump’s presidential re-election campaign and some prediction models estimate he has a 66% chance of winning."

"Wall Street consensus estimates for FY 2016 had declined 32% by the time the Company decided to host another Investor Day in March 2016 to reset financial targets"

"Adjusting 2012 estimates for management's 25% margin target and ~$46mm of interest expense(1), Lazard's EPS would be ~$2.50, a valuation less than 10x earnings(2)"

"We conservatively estimate that SBUX should be able to generate SSS growth of at least 3% in the U.S., with 5% achievable even if Frappuccino continues to decline"

"We also use LSPD’s $200 per month ARPU claim to back into an estimate of unique customers. We calculate 26,664 which is close to the 27,200 estimate in Method #1."

"In fact, we show that, after adjusting for Mailchimp's estimated international revenue, Intuit's international revenue has grown at just a 1% CAGR since FY 2022."

"Combining our estimates of cash collections per paying member per year with estimated member churn yields a nine-year payback period for EHTH’s booked revenues."

"Based on analyst estimates for 2018 EBITDA, PAH shares would be valued at more than $19, nearly 75% above current levels, if it traded at current peer multiples"

"Based on analyst estimates for 2018 EBITDA, PAH shares would be valued at more than $19, nearly 75% above current levels, if it traded at current peer multiples"

"It would seem that Pioneer has not adjusted its resource estimates for lower prices. Surely, some opportunities that were economic before are not economic now."

"Spruce Point estimates that WSP's 2023 net order intake relative to acquired run-rate revenues looks even weaker at 83% vs. 91% for the deals acquired in 2022."

"We estimate the Company will have a dividend coverage (FCF/Dividend) of 1.4x, in line with peers, therefore being able to distribute €1.2bn of dividend in 2019"

"Muddy Waters estimates that Mr. Müller and Mr. Ströer made a profit of more than 20 million euros when they sold freeXmedia via Media Ventures to the company."

"For many months we believe Xylem side-stepped any discussion or reference of the $90 million required to achieve the $140 million of estimated cost synergies."

"In our view, WD-40 has no visibility in an economic recession. It missed FY 2009 sales and EPS estimates by 13% and almost 10% at the mid-point, respectively."

"We estimate the future payment obligations for just the apartments under construction to be in excess of ~€220 million and coming due over the next few years."

"We estimate Oribe's revenue to be roughly half their size, Oribe could match these figures and more through expanded marketing and distribution beyond salons."

"The last step in calculating monthly utilization (number of PhenoTests per month per system) is dividing estimated reagent revenue by functional system-month."

"Our estimates conservatively assume UNP only recaptures half the volume underperformance vs. US railroad peers that UNP experienced under current leadership."

"Based on a November 2021 disclosure by AMR that it had sold 1.9 million met tons to China, we estimate minimum China export sales for 2021 were $332 million."