Contrarian Corpus
activist full deck follow up
2018-01-29 · 58 pages

Pershing Square Holdings (fund-level portfolio update) PSH

After a fourth losing year driven by Valeant and Herbalife, Pershing Square has downsized, returned to core principles, and offers PSH investors an attractive reset entry point.

Thesis

Pershing Square's 2018 London investor presentation, delivered by Bill Ackman, recaps a fourth consecutive year of negative returns at PSH (-4.0% vs. +21.8% S&P 500) driven by losses in Herbalife, Mondelez, Fannie/Freddie, Chipotle and Valeant, partly offset by wins from Restaurant Brands (+5.2%) and ADP (+3.5%). Ackman frames a 'return to our roots': cutting headcount from 70 to 45, recommitting to seven core investment principles, and pivoting back to high-conviction activism at ADP and Chipotle. Performance fees are waived until PSH crosses its high-water mark — requiring a ~50% NAV climb. To address PSH's persistent ~20% discount to NAV, the firm announced a $300M tender offer by PSCM affiliates, an LSE listing, FTSE 250 inclusion, and a 5% open-market buyback. The pitch: a humbled, smaller, principle-driven manager with reset incentives is uniquely attractive now.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    Restructured to a smaller investment-centric team (70 down to 45 employees) and reaffirmed seven core investment principles

  2. 2

    ADP and Chipotle activist campaigns are in early stages of substantial value creation

  3. 3

    $300M tender, LSE listing, and 5% buyback program target PSH's persistent ~20% discount to NAV

Primary demands

  • Approve removal of 4.99% ownership limit at PSH AGM in April 2018 to enable larger capital returns
  • Support PSCM-affiliate tender offer for up to $300M of PSH shares as alignment-of-interest signal
  • ADP: deliver Employer Services growth from 2-4% to 7%+ and operating margins from 19% to 35%+, implying ~$10 EPS by FY2022

KPIs cited

PSH 2017 net return vs S&P 500
(4.0%) vs +21.8%
Pershing Square LP cumulative net return since 1/1/2004
493.6% vs S&P 500 220.8% through 12/31/2017
Total firm AUM
$8.77bn at 12/31/2017 ($8.26bn core funds + $510M ADP co-investment vehicle)
Headcount evolution
From 70 employees in 2016 to 45 in 2018; investment team stable at 8-9
ADP campaign target
Operating margin expansion from ~19% to 35%+, implying ~$10 EPS by FY2022 (>50% increase)
QSR valuation gap
21x 2018 FCF vs peers (McDonald's, Yum, Domino's, Dunkin') at ~25x
PAH sum-of-parts upside
Trades at 9.5x 2018 EBITDA vs Performance peer Cabot Micro at ~13x and Ag peer FMC at ~12x — implies >$19/share, ~75% upside
PSH discount to NAV
Persistent ~20% discount; tender priced at premium, 5.5M shares already bought back at 20.1% discount for $77.2M
Management fee reduction
~14% average reduction for next eight quarters from Allergan settlement; no incentive fees until 50%+ high-water mark crossed
ADP share price since announcement
+18% from average cost (5/10/17) through 1/19/18, including dividends
HHC since 2010 spinoff
+250% (3.5x) from $37 to $128
QSR since Justice Holdings merger
+300% (4.0x) from $16 to $62

Pattern membership

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Composition what's on the 58 slides

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Notes

Fund-level annual investor presentation (London, 29-Jan-2018), not a single-target activist deck. Combines a self-reflective post-mortem on three losing years (Valeant, Herbalife, etc.) with a meta-pitch to invest in/hold PSH after organizational restructuring. The 'Evolution of Pershing Square Organization' chart (p18) overlays headcount, AUM and cumulative net return — an unusual and visually effective before/after framing of the firm itself. Annotated share-price-history charts with event callouts are a recurring template (ADP, QSR, MDLZ, HHC, CMG, FNMA/FMCC, PAH, NKE, HLF). PSH Discount History chart (p53) is the closest thing to a peer-gap visual at the fund level. SCQA fields left null per guidance for fund-level updates with no single thesis. Author attributed to Ackman as CEO/PM though delivered by team (Anne Farlow opens as Chairperson).