Contrarian Corpus
activist conference presentation follow up
2017-05-08 · 50 pages

Howard Hughes Corporation HHC

HHC is the public-market way to invest alongside a Donald-Bren-style MPC compounder: irreplaceable master-planned communities with 37M SF of remaining entitlements, roughly 10x what's already built.

Thesis

Pershing Square presents Howard Hughes Corporation (HHC) as the public-market analogue to Donald Bren's Irvine Ranch — the wealthiest real-estate developer in America, whose $15B fortune was built by controlling supply in a single master-planned community over 40 years. HHC owns a comparable geographically diversified portfolio of irreplaceable MPCs: Summerlin in Las Vegas, The Woodlands and Bridgeland in Houston, Columbia in Maryland, plus high-density urban assets at the South Street Seaport in New York and Ward Village in Honolulu. Since its 2010 spin-off from GGP, HHC has already built 3.9M SF of commercial property at a greater than 9% yield on cost, but 37M SF of remaining entitlements — roughly ten times what has been executed — represents an enormous long-duration value-creation runway. With a conservatively financed, mostly non-recourse balance sheet and an aligned management team, HHC embodies the Bren playbook in public-market form.

SCQA

Situation

Howard Hughes Corporation is a public developer spun out of GGP in 2010, owning large master-planned communities in Summerlin, The Woodlands, Columbia and Bridgeland, plus urban MPCs at the Seaport and Ward Village.

Complication

Public markets heavily discount land development for boom-bust cyclicality, upfront capital and recourse leverage — yet HHC is a de-risked, established MPC platform most investors haven't recognized as such.

Resolution

Own HHC as the public-market vehicle for Donald Bren's Irvine-Ranch playbook: single-owner control, thoughtful master plans, supply discipline, non-recourse debt, and decades-long reinvestment in the land.

Reward

HHC has 37M SF of remaining vertical entitlements — roughly 10x what has been built since 2011 at a greater-than-9% yield on cost — implying decades of compounding value creation.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    HHC owns the best public-market analogue to Donald Bren's $15B Irvine Ranch MPC empire

  2. 2

    37M SF of remaining entitlements equals roughly 10x the development HHC has already executed since 2011

  3. 3

    Self-funding virtuous cycle of MPC land sales, operating NOI, and strategic developments requires no new equity

KPIs cited

Remaining vertical development entitlements
~37M SF at Summerlin, Columbia, Woodlands and Bridgeland — roughly 10x development executed since 2011
Completed commercial operating properties since 2011
3.9M SF built at $1.6B development cost, projected $144M stabilized NOI (>9% yield on cost)
Implied cap rate environment
5%-7% cap rates on comparable commercial assets
Hughes Landing (Woodlands) NOI
~$50M projected NOI from 1.4M SF office, 126K SF retail, hotel and apartments delivered in 2.5 years
Ward Village condo sales
1,100+ units contracted across four towers; ~$1.5B total project cost; 86% of first tower closed
Total MPC acreage
80,880 gross acres across Columbia, Woodlands, Summerlin and Bridgeland serving 342,300 residents
Balance sheet structure
2/3 of outstanding debt is non-recourse; recently refinanced 6.875% bonds into $800M 5.375% issue
Tax basis in assets
$4B existing tax basis; NOLs likely consumed by 2018
Share price since IPO
$122 on 5/4/2017 vs. $37 at the 11/5/2010 GGP spin-off

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns. Orange cells are present in this deck; neutral cells are not.

Precedents cited

  • Donald Bren / The Irvine Ranch (93,000-acre MPC, $15B personal fortune over 40 years)
  • GGP bankruptcy and 2010 emergence (Pershing's prior win)

Composition what's on the 50 slides

Visual + textual elements counted across every slide in this deck. Hover a box for what that element is; click to see every slide in the corpus that uses it.

Chart types used in this deck

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Notes

Long thesis (not short/adversarial) delivered at Ira Sohn 2017. Classic analogical framing: 'SimCities' — HHC is the public-market version of Donald Bren's Irvine Ranch, with the first 17 slides building the Bren precedent before even naming HHC. Pershing has owned HHC continuously since the 2010 GGP spin-off, Ackman chairs HHC's board, and Pershing owns warrants that must be net-settled before November 2017 — so tone is educational/promotional rather than adversarial, with no villain, no management contradictions, and no demands on management. Uses Bren (positive) quotes, 1976-vs-today Irvine Ranch photos, and a clean Irvine/HHC/Most Developers checkmark comparison (p17) as the rhetorical spine. No explicit SOTP valuation table, but the p45 back-of-envelope 37M-SF / yield-on-cost math plays a similar implied-asset-value role.