Callouts & quotes from 875+ activist slides

"After adjusting for our estimate of aggressively booked segment income, we find that Burford's combined 2019 operating profit is overstated by approximately 8.0%."

"Sell-side estimates are now imputing FY23 growth of 40% for C3.ai customers outside of the Baker Hughes JV. Prior to the 3rd amendment, the imputed growth was 18%"

"At the current levels of g-fees and a historical level of credit losses, we estimate the GSEs' guarantee business alone could generate long-term earnings of $16bn"

"There is a growing risk to Floor & Decor from Donald Trump’s presidential re-election campaign and some prediction models estimate he has a 66% chance of winning."

"Wall Street consensus estimates for FY 2016 had declined 32% by the time the Company decided to host another Investor Day in March 2016 to reset financial targets"

"Adjusting 2012 estimates for management's 25% margin target and ~$46mm of interest expense(1), Lazard's EPS would be ~$2.50, a valuation less than 10x earnings(2)"

"We conservatively estimate that SBUX should be able to generate SSS growth of at least 3% in the U.S., with 5% achievable even if Frappuccino continues to decline"

"We also use LSPD’s $200 per month ARPU claim to back into an estimate of unique customers. We calculate 26,664 which is close to the 27,200 estimate in Method #1."

"In fact, we show that, after adjusting for Mailchimp's estimated international revenue, Intuit's international revenue has grown at just a 1% CAGR since FY 2022."

"Adhi Rajaprabhakaran, known as 50¢ Dollars on Substack, a former Kalshi employee, and prediction market expert estimates revenue to be ~1.3% of volume or handle."

"Combining our estimates of cash collections per paying member per year with estimated member churn yields a nine-year payback period for EHTH’s booked revenues."

"Based on analyst estimates for 2018 EBITDA, PAH shares would be valued at more than $19, nearly 75% above current levels, if it traded at current peer multiples"

"Based on analyst estimates for 2018 EBITDA, PAH shares would be valued at more than $19, nearly 75% above current levels, if it traded at current peer multiples"

"Based on challenging macroeconomic conditions, our class of 2022 and class of 2023 new stores are estimated to be below these targets. — Floor & Decor 2023 10-K"

"It would seem that Pioneer has not adjusted its resource estimates for lower prices. Surely, some opportunities that were economic before are not economic now."

"Spruce Point estimates that WSP's 2023 net order intake relative to acquired run-rate revenues looks even weaker at 83% vs. 91% for the deals acquired in 2022."

"We estimate the Company will have a dividend coverage (FCF/Dividend) of 1.4x, in line with peers, therefore being able to distribute €1.2bn of dividend in 2019"

"Muddy Waters estimates that Mr. Müller and Mr. Ströer made a profit of more than 20 million euros when they sold freeXmedia via Media Ventures to the company."

"For many months we believe Xylem side-stepped any discussion or reference of the $90 million required to achieve the $140 million of estimated cost synergies."

"In our view, WD-40 has no visibility in an economic recession. It missed FY 2009 sales and EPS estimates by 13% and almost 10% at the mid-point, respectively."

"We estimate the future payment obligations for just the apartments under construction to be in excess of ~€220 million and coming due over the next few years."

"We estimate Oribe's revenue to be roughly half their size, Oribe could match these figures and more through expanded marketing and distribution beyond salons."

"The last step in calculating monthly utilization (number of PhenoTests per month per system) is dividing estimated reagent revenue by functional system-month."

"Our estimates conservatively assume UNP only recaptures half the volume underperformance vs. US railroad peers that UNP experienced under current leadership."

"Based on a November 2021 disclosure by AMR that it had sold 1.9 million met tons to China, we estimate minimum China export sales for 2021 were $332 million."

"Based on cumulative income inflation estimates, we adjust Moody's key leverage ratio, Tangible Common Equity to Tangible Managed Assets, from 36.7% to 29.4%."

"FTAI has wide latitude to estimate residual values, giving it the benefit of potentially moving equipment to Inventory with artificially low carrying values"

"BOL has likely been misunderstood because the complexity of its structure makes it infeasible to use Excel to estimate the percentage of circular ownership."

"We estimate that the option to switch to in-house printing presents the average Diamond Plus Align customer with a $400K per year cost savings opportunity."

"Analysts have poorly forecasted USCR's financial results, which we believe lowers their credibility in valuing the Company. Estimates continue to contract."

"We think AGO should publicly disclose the calculations so we can better judge whether AGO is using higher internal credit ratings to underestimate losses."

"Oasis estimates revenue from Curél to be around USD 285 – 430 mn, mostly concentrated in Japan and Asia with minimal presence in Europe, and the Americas."

"We underestimated the problems created by prior management, both in our initial diligence and in the impact of actions required to effectuate a turnaround"

"We estimate by depreciating trucks too slowly, USCR is understating depreciation by approximately $12.5 million, thereby benefiting EPS by $0.51 cents (1)"

"we felt it was worth showing that simply using realistic estimates, Inspire's best-case TAM falls by ~80%, to 104,125 units versus their claim of 500,000."

"Factoring in an additional 1.1m warrants, Diluted EPS would have been $0.34 and made its Q4'18 and full year earnings miss vs. Street estimates even worse"

"However, as we pointed out, we have serious concerns with Nova's consulting geologist and believe the resource estimates should be viewed with skepticism."

"The NGO, Transport & Environment - T&E (www.transportenvironment.org) estimates that only 10% of aviation fuel demand can be met from this source by 2050."

"Excluding Music sales, Superstores same store sales (“SSS”) trends have averaged 1.5% more than average reported comparable sales, based on our estimates"

"… I would estimate that 90-95% of national ads on Patch are being filled by ad networks at a CPM of $1 to $2…. — Former Patch sales executive, March 2012"

"We estimate that from FY14 through FY16, Huishan booked CapEx of RMB 89 million per dairy farm; FY16 CapEx appears to have ballooned to RMB 107 million."

"A classic example of earnings management is when management over-estimates expenses, and claims great performance when results are better than expected."

"Despite the estimated massive losses in Display, AOL appears solely focused on continuing to pursue its high-cost, value-destroying status quo strategy."

"While we recognize these values to be estimates, the order of magnitude relative to previous cost assumptions from 2022 and our own estimates are high."

"Analysts' estimates of the value of Filmed Entertainment is generally in line with the fully-distributed enterprise valuation of $15.0 - $16.5 billion."

"Starbucks plans to nearly double its units in China over the four years, and estimates that China will ultimately surpass the size of the U.S. business"

"I estimate households have about $7 trillion in exposure to short-term interest rates, so a 1% change in rates adds about $70 billion to annual income."

"HASI purchased its 49% equity stake for just $10,000, yet we estimate that it booked 2021 non-cash, unrealizable gains of $34.8 million from Vivint 3."

"We estimate that, on a per-patient-per-day basis, Dexcom spends 59% more to produce the G6 system than Abbott will generate in revenue on the Libre 2."

"We estimate that the true number of shares outstanding is only 42.8% of what BOL reports. BOL’s shares present a unique corporate structure arbitrage."

"If Bristol-Myers hits Wall Street analysts’ estimates, rather than the Company’s aggressive base case assumptions, the deal will be value destructive"

"If Bristol-Myers hits Wall Street analysts’ estimates, rather than the Company’s aggressive base case assumptions, the deal will be value destructive"

"It is estimated that with these adjustments to the SOTP values of the research analysts, TWX shares have an implied value as high as $22.01 - $26.97."

"Street estimates for ACMR's Chinese equipment peers call for continued 30%+ YoY revenue growth. If anything, this suggests potential upside for ACMR."

"We estimate that the probability of making $178,000 per year, the average income suggested by Herbalife’s published testimonials, is about 1-in-5000."

"We estimate that the probability of making $178,000 per year, the average income suggested by Herbalife’s published testimonials, is about 1-in-5000."

"What about cost capitalization and accounting levers? Is it really possible to never miss an EPS estimate in 10yrs? — Spruce Point Capital Management"

"We estimate 40% - 50% downside risk ($110 - $132 per share) as Generac’s financial situation deteriorates and lofty analyst expectations are missed."

"Ancora estimates the combined company will have improved EBITDA margins and free cash flow generation which should lead to a re-rating in valuation."

"The Company reserves for estimated uncollected receivables based on historical trends, which historically have been immaterial. — Floor & Decor 10-K"