Callouts & quotes from 533+ activist slides

"We expect Datasection and Tencent (if that is indeed their China-based backer as we have heard) to be forcibly decoupled which will result in near total annihilation for Datasection because we think that without Tencent, this is not a business worth investing in."

"Carvana not only trades at nosebleed levels relative to its closest peers, even on consensus revenue growth expectations we regard as too high, Carvana now trades at a premium to leading tech players, all of whom enjoy better margins and generate free cash flow."

"We expect that many of the existing HSIC analysts and Animal Health sector analysts will be adding Vets First Corp to their coverage universe. Therefore, we expect between six to ten analysts to cover Vets First Choice soon after the transaction is completed."

"Between spaces completed since 2020 and what's still in the pipeline, the [Austin] office market will grow nearly 25% – the fastest rate on the continent...Roughly 87% of new office space is expected to open vacant, according to data from Cushman & Wakefield."

"Several districts have already projected sizable budget deficits for their 2024-25 school year. We see this as a leading indicator that K-12 vendors like PowerSchool should expect pressure during this period as district leaders pull strings to close the gap."

"The TICO Board and SC ultimately capitulated by recommending a Revised TOB price of ¥18,800 per share - only ¥200 / +1% more than the price that, just days before, they considered wholly insufficient and had "significantly deviate[d]" from their expectation"

"Rather than debate about the product, we focus on three core assumptions underpinning QuickBooks growth expectations: (1) mid-market expansion, (2) international growth, and (3) the presumed absence of competitive threats beyond those listed to the right."

"Not surprisingly, the majority of analysts are “Buy” on the stock, but have quietly been cutting their price targets very recently. We expect a substantial re-rating lower in the share price once investors critically analyze the findings of our research."

"Spruce Point believes sell-side analysts and investors are not factoring in multiple issues that will likely cause Generac to severely miss its lofty financial expectations and/or should factor into Generac receiving a lower valuation relative to peers."

"We can see this quite clearly in company guidance. For its $1.85 billion of budgeted Capex, production from the end of last year to the end of this year is expected to be flat, while the “overspend” (their euphemism for cash burn) will be $200 million."

"Given these conflicting financial interests, how can we, as shareholders of NHI, be expected to trust that these individuals will be able to represent our best interests in the boardroom, particularly as it relates to negotiating the NHC lease renewal?"

"Our rigorous forensic analysis suggests it may be outright impossible for Amcor to meet lofty analyst expectations, with revenues already vanishing, deal costs higher than planned, and critical maintenance and growth capital expenditures being delayed."

"Considering that EPs are supremely confident in their ability to isolate both cardiac structures, we expect Convergent to be a massive commercial failure, ending up exactly like AtriCure’s previous attempts to popularize stand-alone surgical ablation."

"In less than twelve months, durvalumab, demcizumab, ACY-241, and RPC-4046 had all been removed from the list. While fedratinib was added to the list, current Wall Street analysts' estimates expect fedratinib to generate peak revenues of <$500 million."

"It seems to us that if one were to overstate revenue in a global business, one wouldn't want the margins to seem glaringly out of line with peers. Therefore, we would expect that a smart person (or people) would find a way to inflate expenses as well."

"If Solventum returns to these pre-spin performance levels, we believe shares could be worth ~$140 by year-end 2027... We view this as an undemanding case and expect management to be able to drive better performance than how it performed inside of 3M"

"We expect a very weak pricing environment over the next year. Fortunately, CONSOL is protected in the near term, having locked in pricing for the balance of this year at approximately $57 per ton and enough for next year to realize over $50 per ton."

"We expect that once investors come to grips with the fact that O Realty's true growth rate is negative, its multiple will re-rate in line with historical precedents, and its share price will decline by approximately 30% - 45% or $28 - $35 per share."

"Given that ANTA espouses a strategy of developing self-operated retail businesses, like FILA, Descente, and Kolon, we expected to ANTA’s general managers actually heading up ANTA-owned companies, not those of its purported independent subsidiaries."

"We are short IONQ because our investigation reveals IONQ lost its funding for vital Pentagon contracts that provided up to 86% percent of IONQ’s revenues from 2022-2024, leaving a $54.6 million black hole in its expected quantum computing revenues."

"In an effort to avoid admitting a large miss, management has recently started stating that "to get to its mid-cycle EBITDA PSX needs adjusted gross margin of $14.50/bbl,"(1) a level that even VLO (best-in-class operator) is not expected to achieve"

"The relationship between IQ’s deferred revenues and realized revenues is the opposite of what we would expect based on their claims – the realized revenue curve consistently leads the deferred revenue curve and the gap between the two is widening."

"ROAD infrequently provides guidance as to how much of its revenue growth it expects to be organic. However, in the recent instances that it has commented on organic growth goals, we find that the Company has been falling short of its projections."

"In an effort to avoid admitting a large miss, management has recently started stating that "to get to its mid-cycle EBITDA PSX needs adjusted gross margin of $14.50/bbl," a level that even VLO (best-in-class operator) is not expected to achieve"

"APP and most APP games do not require a login; therefore, users, platforms, and stakeholders (games, advertisers, etc.) have the expectation that the TOS and user privacy rules are being followed and the users' identities are NOT being tracked."

"Spruce Point believes that when customers cut fees, suppliers and partners are typically expected to make concessions. We observe that MSCI's fees linked to equity ETFs have been in perpetual decline with further risk to the downside over time."

"In an effort to avoid admitting a large miss, management has recently started stating that "to get to its mid-cycle EBITDA PSX needs adjusted gross margin of $14.50/bbl," a level that even VLO (best-in-class operator) is not expected to achieve"

"Prescribing only because of patient desperation and pressure; doesn't think it has much benefit and is “trying to undersell the expectations”; forced to prescribe only because there's a new FDA approval; doesn't “disagree” with insurer denials"

"To avoid admitting a large miss, management has recently started saying that "to get to its mid-cycle EBITDA Phillips 66 needs adjusted gross margin of $14.50/bbl," a level that even Valero (best-in-class operator) is not expected to achieve"

"Even through today, Disney has underperformed over every relevant period over the last decade...outside of the period since news broke of Trian’s increased beneficial ownership in Disney shares and expected request for Board representation."

"To avoid admitting a large miss, management has recently started saying that “to get to its mid-cycle EBITDA Phillips 66 needs adjusted gross margin of 14.50/bbl,” a level that even Valero (best-in-class operator) is not expected to achieve"

"Even through today, Disney has underperformed over every relevant period over the last decade...outside of the period since news broke of Trian’s increased beneficial ownership in Disney shares and expected request for Board representation."

"FTSE index inclusion can be expected to drive new buying demand from index trackers and other passive investors which should have a positive impact on the share price and help narrow the discount to NAV at which PSH shares currently trade"

"FTSE index inclusion can be expected to drive new buying demand from index trackers and other passive investors which should have a positive impact on the share price and help narrow the discount to NAV at which PSH shares currently trade"

"In 2019 Vireo has come short of its dispensary rollout plan and gross margins have been significantly below expectations (16% in Q3/2019 vs 35% consensus and down 19% sequentially) Buildout in a number of locations have been put on hold."

"Within a year after MPWR claimed inventory growth was a result of needing to meet "current demand and future growth", $10.5m (7.7% of inventories) was written down unexpectedly, and a wafer supplier agreement was terminated in Dec 2018."

"Since the initial investment, Huntsman has invested an incremental ~$660 million into a business that has yet to perform in-line with the Company's initial expectations, and continues to be free cash flow negative on a cumulative basis."

"We compare Rollins’ valuation with a broad set of residential and commercial service companies. We expect Rollins’ margins to contract and its top-line growth to normalize. As a result, we believe its excessive multiple should contract."

"Rate base growth potential is a key investor marketing pitch used by WTRG to show upside in its business. We find that Peoples is falling behind expectations for rate base growth and projections have quietly been cut by $100m per year."

"We believe that lingering stigma around entering such environments could slow dental office activity for months into the future, given that the disease itself is not expected to disappear until later this year at the absolute earliest."

"This view appears to completely contravene U.S. GAAP, which provides that “if a business is expected to lose money for a sustained period, the inventory shall not be written down to offset a loss inherent in the subsequent operations.”"

"This target represents the level of margin expansion we would expect any company to strive to achieve in the normal course of business, not the result of a publicly announced Operating Review that took almost eight months to complete."

"We expect a substantial re-rating lower in the share price once investors see that revenue programs are disappearing, and critically analyze the quality of the Company’s earnings and its valuation adjusted for significant liabilities."

"Over the last two years, DSP's expectations for DECT Home Gateways have declined dramatically from expecting total market shipments of approximately 13 million units in 2012 to estimating approximately 5 million units shipped in 2012."

"Red Cat's management claimed that if you just look at the draft NDAA... "the number" for the SRR funding is $79 million, which the company uses as an indication of what to expect for the first year's revenue generated by the program."

"At the current run rate IIPR would have to pay out $86M in dividends throughout 2020. It seems to us that the company will not be able to do so based on our analysis. We expect that the dividend will have to be reduced substantially."

"If you believe Mettler, it is able to navigate rapidly changing business cycles with limited backlog, unexpected currency revaluations, commodities, disappointing acquisitions, and trade wars without ever missing quarterly earnings."

"If you believe Mettler, it is able to navigate rapidly changing business cycles with limited backlog, unexpected currency revaluations, commodities, disappointing acquisitions, and trade wars without ever missing quarterly earnings."

"Despite the CEO offering expectations of “winning” in Europe at the beginning of the year, we find that profits were down materially. Even worse, we find that Amcor’s cash pool swung from a surplus of €62.7m to a deficit of -€34.4m."

"Since other benefit managers have largely adopted the PGNY treatment protocol, we expect that fertility outcomes, a major (although questionable) marketing point for PGNY, will cease to be a point of competitive differentiation."

"The least squared trendline in figure 1 indicates that the statistically expected outcome for the stock of a suing company is a valuation decline of 80% against the index over the next 6 years (2,192 days) after the publication."

"Samsung expects KLA to launch a competing tool “very soon”; will given them at least half the business; have already placed a pre-order; has “confidence and trust in KLA” who is “aggressively developing their own actinic tools”"

"Further, we are concerned that Mellanox has set the bar far too low. For example, even if the 2018 targets are achieved, Mellanox would still be expected to come in dead last among the peer group in terms of operating margins."

"Pro forma TWC, as shown in Exhibit 3.43, is expected to have total debt of approximately $15.8 billion as of January 1, 2006 or 3.6x net debt/2005E OIBDA (with covenants allowing for maximum leverage of 5.0x total debt/OIBDA)."

"EBITDA add-backs. Very aggressive; includes uncapped pro forma cost savings, synergies and operating expense reductions resulting from transactions and expected to be taken within 18 months, determined in good faith by Parent."

"If the aspiration catheter is so low-tech that its role can be satisfied by cheaper existing products, why should Penumbra expect to maintain a premium price as neurovascular aspiration thrombectomies become more commonplace?"

"With thousands of customers running jobs “every week” at a price of “several thousand” per hour, we would expect $100MM+ revenue. Yet, IONQ reported only $451K of YTD revenue around the time the claims were made in late 2021."

"Logically, if in 2020 the lower margin cohorts from 2018 and 2020 grew to become the majority of the TPV, we would expect the average take rates to fall; however, the opposite occurred, and average take rates spiked by 17.5%."

"In 2018, Aerojet benefitted from boosts in missile orders which will not be repeated in the 2019 budget. Based on the 2020E overall budget, key programs are expected to fall by 11% driven by declines in THAAD and PAC-3 / MSE."

"We expect management will wrack its brain to find another excuse about why it is hiring engineers to run its internal bot network. We thought we would help. Management or IR, please feel free to cut and paste the reply below."