"Based on Limbach's current 2025 guidance, total company organic growth is effectively flat once acquisition contributions are stripped out, and organic growth in the ODR segment, Limbach's primary growth engine, appears to have decelerated to the low-single digits."
Callouts & quotes from 26,677+ activist slides
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"Buyouts of non-competes happen in the railroad sector – however, $25 million for Mr. Orr, who does not have experience leading operations at an Eastern U.S. railroad, is excessive when compared to the 2017 buyout for Hunter Harrison, industry-renowned PSR operator."
"IRBT has historically reported positive operating cash flow (OCF) in its first quarter results. However, in Q1 2014, IRBT reported its first ever Q1 OCF burn in over 8 years (and the only time its GAAP Net Income has been positive, while its OCF has been negative!)"
"The acquisition of ADESA was an acknowledgement of these shortcomings. Far more brick-and-mortar infrastructure (over $2.2bn worth) was needed to properly scale, physically reduce the distance to its customers, and improve profitability by lowering logistics costs."
"Lasertec is a relatively simple accounting fraud - one can easily estimate what its normalized inventory should be, and therefore the level by which both inventory and earnings are inflated and the size of the inevitable impairment charge and retained earnings hit."
"Lasertec is a relatively simple accounting fraud - one can easily estimate what its normalized inventory should be, and therefore the level by which both inventory and earnings are inflated and the size of the inevitable impairment charge and retained earnings hit."
"Though not implicated in the United Rentals scandal (the key elements of fraud occurred prior to his joining in 2005), it's worth considering that current XPO Audit Committee expert Jason Papastavrou also served for Jacobs at United Rentals on the Audit Committee."
"By supporting the Nominees for ADP’s Transformation you will: Elect a major shareholder to the Board, Add two new independent directors with fresh perspectives and relevant expertise, Send a message to ADP’s management and Board that the status quo is unacceptable"
"Meanwhile, while DXCM share price appreciation was driven largely by multiple expansion through H1 FY18, the stock has been range-bound since the middle of FY18 despite continued revenue beats, and the multiple has contracted to some extent on recent sales growth."
"If Dexcom hasn't found a way to sell a competitively-priced down-market CGM profitably after nearly five years of development, we wonder if it will ever find a way to do so, and whether it faces fundamental scale limitations versus Abbott as a one-product company."
"Spruce Point called multiple stores in late April / early May to inquire about Beyoncé products available. Many stores told us we were the first to inquire. In addition, many stores are just setting up Texas Hold 'Em walls which may indicate BOOT is late to trend."
"We believe Huntsman is deliberately including the positive impact of M&A in order to overstate its 2021 Adjusted EBITDA results by $92 million, in order to fool shareholders into believing its FALSE narrative of almost having achieved its 2018 Investor Day target."
"We also acknowledge activism could create an opportunity to highlight value that is even higher at $40 (and in the range of the activist target) to account for significant margin expansion from current levels, premised on a market P/E of 17x and earnings of $2.37."
"If Valeant’s durable portfolio were valued within the range of multiples of businesses that we believe to be comparable, and its patent cliff portfolio were valued using a DCF analysis, then we estimate that Valeant’s forward earnings multiple would be as follows:"
"Coincidentally, SKLZ filed an S-1 registering 38,616,576 Shares of Class A Common Stock and 5,016,666 Warrants for selling shareholders the following Monday, February 8, enabling many early investors to sell millions of shares of SKLZ stock at this inflated price."
"The committee currently anticipates that economic conditions – including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run – are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013"
"Decisions about revenue recognition are among the most important issues faced by senior accounting personnel. At VMware, Munk held a key role as VP and Corporate Controller during a period the Company violated antifraud and reporting provisions of securities laws."
"Guarantees issued during an economic downturn have a lower probability of default, a longer time period to default, lower severity upon default, and greater persistency, which increases the overall quality of the guarantee portfolio and de-risks the business model"
"We believe the widespread availability of such OTC alternatives that do not require a doctor consultation or subscription could negatively impact HIMS' core sexual health franchise, which relies on its ability to facilitate easy access to prescription medications."
"We believe the widespread availability of such OTC alternatives that do not require a doctor consultation or subscription could negatively impact HIMS’ core sexual health franchise, which relies on its ability to facilitate easy access to prescription medications."
"We believe that Ms. Giesselman’s significant leadership experience as a specialty chemicals industry and her expertise in growth strategies and innovation, as well as her service on a number of public company boards would make her a valuable addition to the Board."
"The Bankruptcy Court’s ruling in the case of Prussia Associates, a limited partnership that owns and operates one hotel in King of Prussia, PA, shows that even if an efficient market is deemed to exist, the Court might still opt for a “prime-plus” formula approach"
"Google makes most of its money when users exit the Google network. This represents the philosophical antithesis to the walled garden approach in which the objective is to keep the user on the network and earn revenue through display advertising and other services."
"By our best estimate, Waterpik has been another failed acquisition by CHD. In the three full quarters after it was acquired, and the acquisition contribution was disclosed through the consumer segments, we find total revenues declined from $102m, to $85m, to $79m."
"We believe MSCI is a classic case of a struggling company failing to transform itself while engaging in value-destructive (and even worse nepotism-like) acquisitions and share repurchases with abusive financial reporting and accounting tactics to bolster earnings."
"Guarantees issued during an economic downturn have a lower probability of default, a longer time period to default, lower severity upon default, and greater persistency, which increases the overall quality of the guarantee portfolio and de-risks the business model"
"Amgen employee #2 (cont’d) indicates BLI is “probably not” worth buying for single-cell analysis; competing machines are “a small fraction of the cost” with better use cases versus BLI’s complexity; and that the TAM for BLI is a “pretty limited number” of systems."
"We look to management and BHP’s Board to work positively and constructively towards achieving unification, and as a result greatly enhanced future capital returns, as an important part of its self-professed commitment to BHP’s “value-driven simplification journey”"
"We found two key changes to Danimer’s investor presentation related to the makeup and degradability of its key product. Danimer removed “derived from 100% renewable source” and “fully degradable in 12-18 weeks after the product is discarded” from its presentation."
"Guarantees issued during an economic downturn have a lower probability of default, a longer time period to default, lower severity upon default, and greater persistency, which increases the overall quality of the guarantee portfolio and de-risks the business model"
"Spruce Point finds it troubling that key qualified individuals outside the United States responsible for signing the “Initial Assessment Technical Report Summary Estelle Gold Project Alaska, USA” in January 2024 did not even visit the site for physical inspection."
"The surgeon indicated that the TransMedics retrieval surgeon was aware of the damage but withheld it – although, as indicated previously, surgeons are prevented from communicating with receiving centers, leading us to think that TransMedics was told but buried it."
"It is a one-trick pony whose sole commercial asset and source of revenue is the US license to an old, toxic drug called pitolisant, marketed as Wakix, that no reputable pharma company would touch – alchemically transformed into $2.5B market cap and 6X LTM revenue."
"We found it shocking that even these speakers are ambivalent about Wakix, all of them jamming it in as a 3rd or 4th line drug in combo - not one of them even pretended to love it during our calls, with comments like "a subtle effect" as the best they could muster."
"John Grijalva, married to BOOT's Chief Merchandise Officer Laurie Grijalva, is disclosed as a related party. Our concerns regarding this association are manifold, and it is undeniably one of the more flagrant related party issues that Spruce Point has come across."
"If Valeant’s durable portfolio were valued within the range of multiples of businesses that we believe to be comparable, and its patent cliff portfolio were valued using a DCF analysis, then we estimate that Valeant’s forward earnings multiple would be as follows:"
"It is hard to imagine that a legitimate Nasdaq-listed, multi-hundred million dollar market cap company is unable to pay these small fines, unless it simply does not or cannot carry out actual basic operations to process these uncomplicated small judgment payments."
"We are short Innodata, Inc. (NASDAQ: INOD) because despite management’s pumping that it is “delivering the promise of AI to many of the world’s most prestigious companies,” it is a deteriorating, manual data-entry business driven by offshore labor, not innovation."
"We’d like take the Single Deluxe King Sea View to make the girls happy. Let’s book those. Happy to move with this ASAP. Please add two bottles of Champaign to each room, 101 roses and a pack of condoms. I’ll prepay for everything. Also, can we book some masseuses?"
"However, in our view, management failed to effectively communicate the financial rationale behind the strategic pivot, as the profitability guidance has not changed while the change in strategy put significant stress on Disney’s balance sheet and cash flow profile"
"Machines made specifically for inspecting photomasks have been Lasertec’s bread and butter since the 1970’s – a small niche versus other segments of the tools market like wafer inspection, defect review, or metrology, hence its historical market cap of $100-200MM."
"In the next quarter’s Q&A, the CEO stated that “in Q1 there were ACTIS units with very low gross margin from the first lots” – without ever explaining what “first lots” means; and that “we have finished recording the sales of ACTIS with poor gross profit margins.”"
"Multiple industry executives in touch with Lasertec told us that the company’s claims around the “new” ACTIS A300 and its purported High-NA capability are simply false and just vaporware – in contrast to KLA’s upcoming machine which is “already ready for High NA.”"
"To maximize the value of Dye & Durham, the Board needs to incentivize management to optimize its return on invested capital, focus on organic growth and consider acquisitions in a measured and disciplined way – instead of trying to hit an arbitrary EBITDA target."
"We believe the Red Lobster Sale, combined with management and the Board’s poor capital allocation, excessive corporate spending, and lack of focus on restaurant operations, has already threatened the sustainability of Darden’s investment grade rating and dividend"
"We submitted a FOIA with Halifax County, VA where IPX’s manufacturing facility is located to request its Machinery & Tools and Tangible Property forms for the last three years. We received a response that the forms do not exist, only a property bill for vehicles."
"He trumpeted the tripling of bookings, and then talked up the Q-Lab deal with Maryland – but failed to disclose the critical fact that the tripling was due to this one particular deal, even representing the increase as due to “customers” versus one related party."
"We believe the Red Lobster Sale, combined with management and the Board’s poor capital allocation, excessive corporate spending, and lack of focus on restaurant operations, has already threatened the sustainability of Darden’s investment grade rating and dividend"
"In fact, in 2015 and 2016, GNYHA had divested of ~99% of its vested Class B shares. This confirms to us that GNYHA is, in fact, an aggressive seller of Class B shares, and that it has little interest in holding its Class B simply for the associated distributions."
"While some reviews on Glassdoor need to be taken with a grain of salt, we find relatively consistent messaging regarding the popularity, perceived integrity, and decision-making of the team installed by Blackford, many of which were former associates from Dexcom."
"The Peng brothers’ substantial conflicts originated soon after the IPO, beginning with the formation of Yundong in 2008, the establishment of Henan Ruili in 2011, Sprandi in 2016, and most recently with the launch of Anta Ruili’s specialty store on Tmall in 2018."
"Yeah, I don't think I can disclose more than that, unfortunately. It is highly confidential. I didn't even know the letter was disclosed to the public. Even within Twist, we really downplayed that...I don't feel comfortable elaborating on that one, unfortunately."
"Investor enthusiasm ebbs and flows over the years for money-losing and speculative fuel cell and energy storage companies similar to Ballard (ex: PLUG, FCEL, and HYGS). We find long-term valuations tend to be around 2.0x - 2.5x book value and 1.5x - 3.5x revenues"
"Unlike other companies with a hardware and software product mix, such as Palo Alto Networks, Alarm.com, Cognex, Axon Enterprise, and Mix Telematics, Samsara reports just one segment, treating its software and hardware offerings as a single performance obligation."
"Spruce Point has had a lot of success in identifying aggressive accounting related to unbilled receivables. Suspiciously, the rise in unbilled receivables may have given C3.ai a "cookie jar" needed to deliver quarterly revenues above the high end of its guidance."
"While some may argue that HIMS' prescription product pricing includes the cost of the consultation and prescription, we find that HIMS' over-the-counter products, which are highly commoditized with dozens of substitutes, are also priced at unjustifiable premiums."
"Like State Street, their problems have been largely self inflicted as the whole industry has been poorly managed in our view (e.g., disappointing cost controls, poor capital allocation, lack of price discipline in core custody as ancillary revenues have declined)"
"Distributors seeking to return product to the Company who cannot demonstrate compliance with the rules will have their previous rewards payments netted against their product return. In many cases, this “clawback” is greater than the returned value of the products"
"It has been almost seven years since MSCI laid out aspirations for high single digit growth in the Analytics segment, and while it is making progress, MSCI is still stuck in the mid single digit growth range and this includes the effect of recent price increases."
"Our investigators in Ghana spoke with 21 sources who have extensive knowledge of the Nkran mining operation. These sources detailed serious concerns with the condition of the Nkran pit, where wall collapses have blocked access to the west ramp for over one month."