Contrarian Corpus
activist conference presentation initial thesis
2015-05-04 · 47 pages

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International VRX

N 5 Narrative
V 4 Visual
C 4 Craft
Original source ↗

The three reasons

  1. 1

    Platform companies are undervalued because P/E ignores value from future acquisitions

  2. 2

    Valeant earned >20% unlevered returns on $20bn+ of acquisitions since 2008

  3. 3

    If VRX keeps compounding, stock is worth $330+ today vs. $223 current price

KPIs cited

Total shareholder return (Jarden)
4,518% / ~45x since June 2001 vs. S&P 500 228%
Total shareholder return (Valeant)
4,502% / ~45x since Pearson became CEO in Feb 2008
Unlevered IRR on acquisitions (Valeant)
>20% pre-tax on $20bn+ invested since 2008
B&L value creation
Acquired for $8.7bn, now worth $21-24bn (130-160% return)
B&L organic growth uplift
Accelerated from 5% to 11% under Valeant ownership
B&L EBITDA margin uplift
Expanded from 21% to ~50% under Valeant ownership
2020 EPS scenarios
$23 (no M&A) to $38.60 (20bn/yr M&A) vs. $16 2016 base
2016 P/E multiple
Trading at only ~14x management's implied $16 2016 EPS
Durable peer P/E multiples
Perrigo 21x, Zoetis 23x, non-healthcare 22-27x vs. Pershing's 20x assumption
PAH share price appreciation
~175% from $10 IPO to $27.40 in two years
Nomad share price appreciation
~80% in ~1 year, driven by Iglo Foods acquisition announcement

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Notable slides (8)

Notes

Landmark Ira Sohn 2015 presentation where Ackman introduced the 'Platform Value' concept as a valuation framework. Unusual structure: opens with three supporting case studies (Jarden '45x', PAH, Nomad) before pivoting to the headline pitch on Valeant (VRX) with the rhetorical 'What is going on here?' interlude on page 10. Pure long/bull thesis praising management (Mike Pearson, Martin Franklin) — not adversarial. Core innovation is arguing that traditional P/E understates serial acquirers by ignoring future capital-allocation option value. Cover slide is minimalist: just the number '45x' and the firm logo — a memorable opener. Campaign outcome famously disastrous: Valeant collapsed ~90% in 2015-2016 over pricing scandals and accounting issues, making this deck a frequently cited case study of narrative hubris in value investing. Document type 'conference_presentation' because delivered at Sohn. Date inferred from 'as of May 1, 2015' references throughout.