Callouts & quotes from 709+ activist slides

"Spruce Point has written four critical activist reports in Canada. In a majority of the cases, the share price has met or exceeded our downside estimate of intrinsic value. The average share price decline is 57%."

"Despite pulling back from recent highs, D-Wave's share price remains up over 600% since last October – a staggering rally that has occurred alongside largely unchanged consensus revenue estimates, as shown below."

"Zebra's multiple expansion and valuation premium to the sum-of-parts are difficult to explain; we estimate 65% – 80% long-term potential downside risk to the share price and expect it to underperform the market."

"Spruce Point believes that C3 might look optically cheap relative to high growth data and AI peers, but that C3's revenue estimates are too high, and lie on a shaky foundation with a related-party Baker Hughes."

"SCT Leisure owns c.$1.3bn worth land in the region surrounding Everland (in-use + undeveloped), c. 4x the Leisure business's estimated intrinsic value (not currently included in our intrinsic value calculation)"

"Our range of estimates assumes that female utilization could decrease to 0.98% vs. the 1.02% female utilization we estimate for FY22. Each 0.01% of utilization decline equates to approximately $10M of revenues."

"Ancora agrees with RBA’s estimates that revenue synergy opportunities can yield $250 to $780 million of EBITDA – and sees additional opportunities for the combined company to gain market share and drive value"

"D&D is currently trading at a significant discount to its peers, based on FY2024 consensus EBITDA estimates. Illustratively, at the peer median of 19.2x EV / FY2024 EBITDA, D&D would trade at $71.54 per share"

"Shown at right are illustrative estimates for deployment of 700MHz A and AWS-3 spectrum – these two examples alone generate over $1.10 of incremental AFFO per share for CCI (realized over a multiyear period)"

"After prorating our data to the number of days in the 3rd quarter, we estimate that Lianjia’s existing home sales GTV was approximately RMB ~161 billion in 3Q21, which suggests BEKE inflated the GTV by ~15%."

"We estimate $822 - $966 million of additional liabilities (beyond the convertible bond notional) are not being factored into Aerojet’s valuation, allowing some analysts to claim it is “cheap” on the surface."

"As the discrepancy between accounting income and cash flow widens, funding the dividend becomes tricky – consensus earnings estimates for 2025/2026 imply a dividend that is unrealistic vs. cash or cash flow."

"Given its 2019 disclosure of 12,000 new employees, we estimate 7,400 employees departed. Therefore, we estimate employee attrition at 46.0% or significantly higher than the 26.6% figure cited by management."

"Phillips 66 is far from achieving its 2025 mid-cycle EBITDA target, with analysts' 2026 estimates signaling a major shortfall – despite consensus forecasts assuming a reasonable mid-cycle price environment."

"Discounting the projected enterprise value back one and one quarter periods at 25% and adjusting for the share count, we arrive at a fair value estimate for FCUV of $15 per share, well above current levels."

"IPX has shifted the narrative from Phase II being spherical or angular powder to now just angular powder. They have also reduced the capacity estimate from 2,000 to 1,400 tpa at slightly higher capex cost."

"We believe FND trades at an irrational premium to peers and that sell-side expectations are too high. Where we differ the most is new store operating expenses which we estimate are set to rapidly increase."

"If Maxar were to admit earnings overstatement tied to incorrect accounting, we would expect a 25% to 30% in its share price. Recent admissions by similar companies suggest this to be a realistic estimate."

"At a minimum, industry leading FMCG companies should achieve normalized gross margins of over 45%. Currently, we estimate Consumer Products Gross Margins remain below pre-Covid levels and far below peers."

"We are concerned with the increase in gross profit write-ups from contract estimate revisions in recent quarters and the outsized impacts these management decisions had on the Company’s reported earnings."

"As a result of the mismatch between the high cost structure of the Display businesses and the primarily low-CPM ad sales it generates, we estimate that AOL loses over $500 million in its Display business."

"Bunge is a cash incinerating agribusiness roll-up which we estimate has a cumulative cash flow deficit of ($1.6bn) since 1999 while distributing $4.7bn and $3.9bn towards dividends and share repurchases."

"Based on our analysis, which adjusts from the sale of U.S. (Amcor) and European “EC” (Bemis) assets, we estimate that Bemis and legacy Amcor were declining 3.0% and 4.0%, respectively, through Sept 2019."

"Based on our analysis, which adjusts from the sale of U.S. (Amcor) and European “EC” (Bemis) assets, we estimate that Bemis and legacy Amcor were declining 3.0% and 4.0%, respectively, through Sept 2019."

"Though analysts project declining sales growth, they foresee margin expansion at the same time. This pair of estimates makes little sense to us and should make investors skeptical of consensus estimates."

"To the extent our estimate is accurate, this anemic production supports our view that DNMR PHA compounds are in low demand, and DNMR is incapable of producing PHA compounds that would be in high demand."

"We value Olam on a liquidation basis because our opinion is that it is likely to fail. In the event of a liquidation, we estimate the present value of unsecured bonds to be 14 to 33 cents on the dollar."

"Bristol-Myers is estimating Celgene’s five near-term product launch opportunities will generate base case 2028 revenues that are 59% higher than the median of Wall Street analysts’ research estimates."

"That the SRR program's financial benefit to Red Cat is being massively overestimated by the market is not that controversial among other industry players who have considered competing for the program."

"We estimate 30% – 50% intermediate term potential downside risk to CLEAR's share price and expect it to underperform the technology and transportation industries along with the broader equity market."

"the peak plasma levels of Pitolisant after 6 consecutive daily doses will be 2.3x higher than they were on Day 1 but the Day 1 plasma concentrations were used to estimate the safety margins for QTcF."

"As of June 2017, Mr. Rehbeli, a Manulife expert witness, estimated that a $100 million deposit into the Carrier Fund would cause “an immediate reported loss to the insurer in excess of $45 million.”"

"TWX, by any measure, is undervalued. There appears to be a significant valuation gap between the current stock price of TWX and the estimated intrinsic value of the underlying assets of the Company."

"We estimate that the GSEs’ minimum capital levels were nearly sufficient to withstand their actual losses during the financial crisis, excluding the large credit losses from subprime and Alt-A loans"

"We estimate that the company will fall short of 2022E revenue and EBITDA by 35%, while we estimate that Levered Free Cash Flow in 2022E will be $74.3 million, or 80% lower than what forecasts imply."

"We estimate that the GSEs’ minimum capital levels were nearly sufficient to withstand their actual losses during the financial crisis, excluding the large credit losses from subprime and Alt-A loans"

"Based on our application of a generous 1.5x - 2.0x 2022E revenue multiple, we estimate a price target of $4.40 – $6.05 per share price target for FIGS, representing 45% - 60% downside from current."

"Even if Tessera were to achieve their current cost reduction targets in DOC, we estimate that DOC would still generate segment operating losses of $95 million in 2013, including corporate overhead."

"With the estimated impact of Actix and Celcite backed out of total sales, Amdocs’ revenue appears to have grown only between 1-2% on an annual basis through the quarters following the acquisitions."

"We are short BEKE because we conclude the Company is engaged in systemic fraud, by our estimate, inflating its new home sales GTV by over ~126% and its commission revenues by approximately ~77–96%."

"Even at AOL's target revenue model of selling 80% of ad slots to local advertisers near rate card pricing, we estimate that Patch would still lose approximately $20 million to $60 million per year."

"Even taking management’s presumed average of 1.5 vets per clinic as given, we estimate that PetIQ wellness centers will be unprofitable at maturity under more reasonable store traffic assumptions."

"We find it extremely curious that management could be so off in its estimates for VIP sales. How could management have such little visibility into a stable, diversified, steadily-growing business?"

"In a hypothetical year where BREIT generates a target return of 12.0%, we estimate an investor would pay an “all-in” fee ratio, including both management fees plus performance fees, of 2.7% of NAV"

"We conservatively estimate Porch booked $8.1m of revenue in 2019 with zero cost associated with it. As a result, we estimate Gross Margin % to be inflated by approximately 2.3% (230 basis points)."

"We conservatively estimate Porch booked $8.1m of revenue in 2019 with zero cost associated with it. As a result, we estimate Gross Margin % to be inflated by approximately 2.3% (230 basis points)."

"The obvious way to play this is through copper mining companies. Freeport-McMoRan, is the leading copper miner. It is up 45% this year. It trades at a still reasonable 16x estimated 2021 earnings."

"We estimate that the retention of the GSEs’ earnings will allow them to become fully capitalized in no more than a decade. There are several potential alternatives to capitalize them more quickly"

"Dycom does not regularly report wireless revenue but is often asked by analysts. Based on our analysis, we estimate annual revenues have fallen from ~$300 million (2020) to ~$185 million (2024)."

"By calculating predicted subscription months assuming 0% and 100% cohort renewals versus actuals, we estimate that Heska retention rates were materially lower than the “>95%” the Company quotes."

"In fact, following the pre-announcement of recent results and initial 2018 outlook, we estimate that management’s EBITDA guidance for 2018 has fallen 17% below its original post-merger guidance."

"Spruce Point estimates that for the first time since coming public, Remitly's transaction margin, or the difference of revenue per send volume and transaction expense per send volume, declined."

"Target currently owns approximately 213 million square feet of retail square footage (1), more than any other publicly traded retail real estate company in the U.S. today based on our estimates"

"Positive sales momentum has culminated in rising consensus revenue estimates for mall-based retailers. Wall Street is now forecasting 2.6% and 3.5% revenue growth in 2010 and 2011, respectively"

"The business units of TWX, if separated, should have the ability to manage even more debt (estimated at up to $23 billion) without jeopardizing their ability to secure investment grade ratings."

"This estimate does not include harm done to the ~10mm¹ former Non-Sales Leader distributors. As such, we think the true financial damage Herbalife has inflicted is materially higher than $3.8bn"

"While we estimate BR has invested $1.0 billion+ in the UBS wealth platform since launching the project in 2018, its end customer, UBS Americas Wealth Advisors, is slowly bleeding in population."

"While PetIQ's growth target was initially set at 20%, this figure was gradually tracked back to 15% without much explanation, and without any announcement that its growth estimate had changed."

"This view is captured in an October 23rd note from Morgan Stanley which estimated only 1%-3% of all incremental US data center power capacity (~2-5 GWe) through 2035 would be provided by SMRs."

"The pursuit of a dutch auction, in conjunction with other actions, should help reduce the valuation gap between the current stock price of TWX and the estimated intrinsic value of the Company."