Contrarian Corpus
activist full deck follow up
2025-02-18 · 55 pages

Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. HHH

HHH trades at a 40% NAV discount with no take-private bidders; Pershing's $900M primary investment at $90 converts it into a modern-day Berkshire Hathaway.

Thesis

Howard Hughes Holdings, owner of premier master-planned communities in Texas, Nevada, Hawaii, Maryland and Arizona, has chronically traded at roughly a 40% discount to its investor-day NAV, burdened by a C-Corp structure, small-cap scale, and macro sensitivity that repel traditional real-estate investors. A 2019 strategic review drew no offers and a four-month 2024 privatization sounding of 284 investors (40 NDAs, 20 meetings) produced zero formal bids. Pershing Square proposes a simplified alternative: a $900 million primary investment at $90 per share (a 46.4% premium to the $61.46 August 2024 unaffected price), lifting its ownership from 37.6% to 48.0% without a change of control. Bill Ackman, Ryan Israel and Ben Hakim would run HHH as a diversified holding company — a modern-day Berkshire Hathaway — while HHC continues its MPC strategy under David O'Reilly for a 1.5% advisory fee with no promote.

SCQA

Situation

Howard Hughes Holdings owns premier master-planned communities in Texas, Nevada, Hawaii, Maryland and Arizona, operates as a small-cap C-Corp real-estate developer, and Pershing Square has been its largest shareholder since 2010 with 37.6% ownership.

Complication

HHH has traded at a ~40% discount to NAV for years; a 2019 strategic review drew no bids and a 2024 four-month privatization process with 284 investors and 40 NDAs produced zero formal offers — leaving no standalone path to fair value.

Resolution

Allow Pershing Square to invest $900 million of primary capital at $90 per share (46.4% premium) to reach 48% ownership, install Ackman/Israel/Hakim as HHH leadership, and enter a 1.5% advisory-fee Services Agreement with no promote.

Reward

HHH becomes a modern-day Berkshire Hathaway with a vastly expanded investor base, macro hedging, and proprietary deal flow — the Board's hurdle is whether this delivers at least 150 bps of annual excess equity return for shareholders.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    HHH stuck at ~40% NAV discount with no take-private bidder after 284 investors approached

  2. 2

    $900M primary issuance at 46.4% premium is accretive and funds a credit-positive cash war chest

  3. 3

    Pershing-led HHH becomes a 'modern-day Berkshire Hathaway' with 21-year 935 bps S&P outperformance

Primary demands

  • Approve Pershing Square HoldCo's $900 million primary investment in HHH at $90/share
  • Increase Pershing Square ownership from 37.6% to 48.0% without a change of control
  • Enter into evergreen Services Agreement with Pershing Square at 1.5% of equity market cap, no performance fees
  • Install Bill Ackman as Chairman & CEO, Ryan Israel as CIO, Ben Hakim as President
  • Transform HHH into a diversified holding company while HHC continues its MPC strategy under David O'Reilly
  • Maintain NYSE listing and majority-independent Board with 31.3M public float

KPIs cited

Primary issuance premium
$90 represents 46.4% premium to $61.46 unaffected price (8/5/2024)
Pershing Square ownership pre/post
Increases from 37.6% to 48.0% post-$900M primary issuance
Pershing team look-through investment
14.3M shares (23.7% of HHH), $1.3B at $90; Ackman alone owns 8.5M shares ($764M)
21-year annualized net return (PSLP/PSH)
16.4% vs S&P 500 10.5% — 935 bps per annum outperformance since January 2004
Permanent Capital era return
PSH 24.0% vs S&P 500 14.0% since January 2018 — 1,300 bps per annum outperformance
HHH historical discount to Investor Day NAV
37% (Apr 2021), 39% (Apr 2022), 39% (Sep 2023), 24% (Nov 2024 at $90 transaction price)
Take-private process outcome
Jefferies approached 284 investors, 40 signed NDAs, 20 met, 0 formal indications of interest over four months
Advisory fee vs peers
1.5% of equity market cap (~1.15% of total cap, no promote) — ~120 bps below BIP, ~50 bps below BEP/BBU all-in
Incremental fee economics
Only $42M of $81M annual fees truly incremental (from 52% public float) — ~0.8% of equity market cap
Hedging multiples of capital
GFC CDS 17.5x ($64M→$1.1B); COVID 93.4x ($27M→$2.6B); rate swaptions 11.3x and 6.5x
Required excess-return hurdle
Board must judge whether transaction delivers at least 150 bps of annual excess equity return

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns. Orange cells are present in this deck; neutral cells are not.

Precedents cited

  • Berkshire Hathaway (modern-day holding company analogue)
  • Brookfield listed entities — BIP, BEP, BBU evergreen services agreements
  • Pershing Square's 2020 $500M backstop of HHH's $600M rights offering
  • Pershing Square's privately negotiated stakes in Restaurant Brands and Universal Music Group
  • Pershing's 2010 $250M rights offering that recapitalized HHC post-GGP spin

Composition what's on the 55 slides

Visual + textual elements counted across every slide in this deck. Hover a box for what that element is; click to see every slide in the corpus that uses it.

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Notes

Filed as exhibit to Schedule 13D Amendment No. 23. Unusual posture: this is a 'discussion materials' deck for HHH's Special Committee — Pershing is already a 37.6% insider proposing a self-dealing transaction, so tone is collaborative/explanatory rather than adversarial. Argues affirmatively AGAINST sum-of-parts/breakup ('undermines MPC strategy and incurs tax friction'). Frames the ask as two simple Board questions (p14) and closes with the explicit 150 bps excess-return hurdle (p44). The 'modern-day Berkshire Hathaway' framing on p52 is the central narrative anchor. Heavy benchmarking of the 1.5% advisory fee against Brookfield listed entities, traditional PE, non-traded REITs, and non-traded PE. Culminates a ~15-year Pershing-HHH engagement dating back to the 2010 GGP spin. Pages 3, 15, 33, 45, 53 are section dividers; pages 54-55 are disclaimers. Every page carries a '10xebitda.com' watermark confirming this is the publicly filed version.