"The “new” ACTIS A300, announced with fanfare in Nov 2023 as Lasertec’s next-generation EUV product and driver of growth, is a hoax – a cover story to conceal fatal flaws with the Ushio-supplied EUV light source in its flagship tool, the A150."
Callouts & quotes from 26,677+ activist slides
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"Spruce Point begrudges Rollins’ cavalier treatment that an $8 million civil fine related to accounting management charges should be added to EBITDA and believes it should increase investors’ skepticism about its financial reporting practices."
"The analyst community is overly bullish on Bunge and largely buys into management's new aspirational EPS target for 2030 despite its pervious guidance failures and underlying financial performance problems with Viterra and Bunge's operations."
"Bunge’s “Contractual Obligations” disclosure in the notes to the financial statements shows a troubling development that over the past four years, short-term debt and other commitments and obligations have been its fastest growing categories."
"You should assume that as of the publication date of our reports and research, Muddy Waters Capital LLC... has a short position in all stocks... and therefore stands to realize significant gains in the event that the price of either declines."
"We have held extensive interviews with numerous industry experts that have stated that a $200M+ reduction of operating expenses is prudent and highly achievable while still enabling the company to maintain targeted investments in growth areas"
"Kao's largest rivals' CEOs have extensive experience both globally and at competitor firms. However, both President Hasebe and former President Sawada are lifetime employees of Kao from the R&D department with little international experience."
"TransMedics is allegedly pushing questionable organs that reputable centers won't touch - and these dubious organs appear to be the currency by which TransMedics boosts device volumes and by which its top users boost their transplant volumes."
"We believe Hormel Foods Corporation (NYSE: HRL) is a close comparable to BEF Foods in terms of underlying business mix and similar evolution away from a meat and protein-oriented business towards a branded, value-added packaged foods company."
"Soleno uses weight-based dosing and pricing, but has only three tablet sizes (25, 75, 150mg), which of course makes it difficult to titrate the dose to a patient’s exact weight – weight is analog as is a dropper, but tablet sizes are digital."
"Assuming a 19.9% IPO of TIP REIT at a 15% IPO discount, the IPO would generate roughly $5.1bn in gross proceeds. After frictional costs and expenses, IPO proceeds of $3.0bn will be paid to retire Target debt and $1.6bn will remain at TIP REIT"
"According to our analysis, after taking into consideration the effects of tenants defaulting, and removing overpayment effects, we determine that even in a good case scenario at least 38% of IIPR’s 2020 rental income is under direct jeopardy."
"It is obvious there has been no progress possible, because N703AX is non-conformal, only flying a few flights, only flying CTOL, and hence there is no way Archer has made actual progress on the completion of company flight testing in Stage 4."
"We find evidence from a recent employee interview, a regulatory consent order in Florida, and from Remitly's Australian filings that it may have underspent in KYC (Know Your Customer) compliance which is designed to prevent money laundering."
"We urge the independent directors (Ms. Moorehead, Mr. Derksen, Ted Prittie, Peter Brimm, and Ronnie Wahi) to stop the shenanigans and set a date for the Special Meeting as soon as practically possible so that shareholders can have their say."
"We believe a sizable dividend backed by the credit quality of America’s largest wireless operators in a business with one of the brightest areas of growth within the telecom sector will be incredibly well received by yield-oriented investors"
"With electronic manufacturing services (EMS) companies like SMTC Corp (Nasdaq: SMTX) reporting softness in mid September in China semiconductors and data center expansions, the likelihood of MPWR meeting its financial targets are decreasing."
"In Q4 2011, Dauman Said That a 3rd Party Set Top Box Was Picking Up Different Ratings’ Data Than Nielsen Was for Nickelodeon. He Claimed Then That They Were Working on Proving That Theory That Nick’s Ratings Weren’t Down as Much as Reported:"
"Spruce Point does not believe that BOOT is pursuing the right strategy of expanding its physical retail footprint with an average of 10,800 square foot stores in an era where consumers are increasingly shopping online to save time and money."
"Spruce Point finds that BOOT’s product offering around the Texas Hold ‘Em single does not align with Beyoncé’s look which we believe further discredits the notion that consumers will be drawn to make purchases from BOOT because of the album."
"We find it unusual that Xylem marked $432 million of acquired Evoqua receivables at fair value. It then made a separate disclosure and called out that the fair value of the acquired receivables was $322 million. Why does a discrepancy exist?"
"Spruce Point believes that, as management attempts to support future growth by transforming Dropbox into a more premium product, it risks chasing away its core customer base, which values it primarily as a simple and low-cost storage option."
"With GTT's poor trailing twelve-month cash conversion rate of 5.1%, and management's guidance for capex of 7% of revenue, it is mathematically impossible for GTT to generate free cash flow unless it can significantly improve cash conversion."
"We reviewed each profile, and consistent with the CFO's comments, they strike us as either remote workers to support its California-based manufacturing, or as low-level positions with generally inexperienced employees straight out of school."
"There is little retail demand for the Company’s overpriced commodity products, which receive almost no advertising and promotion, and retail sales are typically at large discounts from the Company’s artificially high Suggested Retail Prices."
"We are not surprised that after increasing the incentives in 2022, the performance for PROs was good, but by 2023 the growth rate collapsed and FND stopped regular disclosures about PROs Comparable Sales and the impact from volume and price."
"To avoid admitting a large miss, management has recently started saying that "to get to its mid-cycle EBITDA Phillips 66 needs adjusted gross margin of $14.50/bbl," a level that even Valero (best-in-class operator) is not expected to achieve"
"We then apply a significantly discounted P/E multiple due to heightened risks surrounding the significant red flags that we’ve highlighted in this report. This brings us to a price target of $23 to $32/sh and represents 30%-50% downside risk"
"We believe the Street has failed to critically assess the accuracy of its financials and achievability of projections offered by management from recent acquisitions in light of its recent (Agro / Passport) and long-term acquisition failures."
"New Pacific CEO Rui Feng has taken it a step further, with a history of using litigation and state influence (including payments to Chinese authorities and pressure on Canadian regulators) to silence criticism against his business interests."
"Through swaps of advertising purchases, other services and commissions for membership revenues with related parties and other partners, IQ can easily inflate membership revenues while simultaneously providing a channel to burn off fake cash."
"YDT, which purportedly accounts for 72.1% of NQ's carrier billing, stands a reasonable chance of not showing up even once in 22 carrier subscriptions across 11 provinces (including in NQ's biggest provincial markets), and all three carriers."
"Former executive closely involved with purchase and use says they would have sent it back for a refund if they could; lack of ROI; only worked 50% of the time; failed on many levels - high operating cost, data/output issues, lack of support."
"FDA MAUDE submissions reporting problems with Mako Surgical’s product and services peaked in 2019, at the precise time we observe it started making subtle changes to reporting practices, and then ceased all quarterly reporting going forward."
"In fact, when we compare the realized revenue with prior year backlog, we see that LSP's conversion has been declining sharply for three consecutive years. Therefore, we believe investors should heavily discount the quality of LSP's backlog."
"In light of irrefutable evidence that Cintas is breaking the law an endangering lives with shoddy fire inspection services, and financial stress rising, it makes absolutely no sense why the business valuation has increased to all-time highs."
"Since Japan ramped up its QE in the fall of 2012, its currency has weakened by about 50% and its stock market has rallied over 115%. However, GDP has barely budged, as stock market gains haven’t translated into economic growth there, either."
"There was a lot of bias in the Nevro pivotal trial. We had to talk people into the study, and then they'd go home and pray they got the new stimulator and then they'd get the old one and be grumpy. It wasn't a pristine way to set up a study."
"Numerous KOL's pointed to tolerization as a reason for high frequency's failure, suggesting that Nevro's device overwhelms the spinal cord with current, which backfires by resulting in a faster adaptive response than traditional stimulators."
"The 33% explant rate in the NANS paper is massively underreported and that the actual rate is “tremendous” and possibly 50-60%; that Nevro’s reps couldn’t get the devices to work again; that the device harms patients; that Nevro “just lies”."
"Spruce Point believes the voting control paired with exceptionally long tenured directors has effectively turned the Company's Board into a "good old boys club"; four of Zillow's seven independent directors have been on the Board since 2005."
"Zillow went public in 2011. Since then, its business model has not materially changed. While Zillow likes to position itself as a growth-oriented company in its marketing, we believe there is strong evidence to show the business has matured."
"Management confused the research community when it revised long-term margin targets and simultaneously added back pension/OPEB expenses. During this process, management brought down long-term targets but never made that clear to stockholders"
"Despite claiming that the TOP|SPG is Norfolk Southern’s “modern version of PSR,” resilience railroading and PSR are inherently conflicted – selectively implementing certain elements of each strategy is likely to result in a network collapse."
"Posts indicating the drug is a failure dwarf the tepid reports of benefit: “we’re almost 10 weeks in – I haven’t noticed any ‘improvements’...if I don’t see improvements at week 15/20, I may stop it...why take a medicine that’s not helping?”"
"Taubman's dual-class voting structure has disenfranchised common shareholders for years - A dual-class structure has no place in the modern REIT era, represents a conflict of interest with common shareholders and disenfranchises shareholders"
"It's just not believable that the small 450-mile stretch (highlighted in a red box) is taking about a full year to "unlock" and that the rest of the highlighted lanes will somehow magically enter Aurora's ODD within the next year and a half."
"Unanimous support: At Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX), leading independent proxy advisors Institutional Shareholder Services, Glass Lewis and Egan-Jones support Elliott's case for change, greater accountability and highly qualified board candidates."
"It is deeply concerning that Archer's CEO is hyping TIA (which means in the next four months), whilst simultaneously promoting their very basic achievements showing they are in the very earliest stages of envelope expansion and only in CTOL."
"We learned from this call that the AXDX reagent rental agreement is structured to give hospitals a lot of freedom. The contract does not specify a minimum number of tests and does not have a cancellation fee to cover AXDX's upfront expenses."
"At this moment, there is no company that is fully satisfied with their inspection product. So, absolutely every product now has different problems...no company is fully satisfied...APMI, actinic patterned mask inspection is a huge challenge."
"Similarweb data shows that Bestmoney.com is the 2nd largest referring website to Remitly. However, on Best Money's website, Remitly is not the most recommended alternative in its three largest corridors of the Philippines, India, or Mexico."
"Moe Tassoudji is listed in a lawsuit related to Club Jenna. According to public sources, Jay Grdina married adult film star Jenna Jameson in 2002 and together they created one of the most successful porn companies in the world – Club Jenna."
"Given SafeCharge’s historical strength around gaming, challenges of cross-selling to service to industries such as retail were expressed by a former employee. In addition, there were challenges expressed around Nuvei’s automation processes."
"While the volume of FIGS Threads for Threads donations has been questioned, management has openly admitted to donating flawed product. This anecdote strikes us as tone deaf and disingenuous. Were these units included in the donation totals?"
"In our opinion, GFL is showing investors an inaccurate measure of its leverage. Per its own IPO Prospectus, its lenders evaluate it on a "Net Funded Debt" measure, and not "Total Gross Debt" as depicted in its recent earnings press release."
"On October 26, 2021, days before his other 10b5-1 stock sale program started, the Chairman & CEO formed the Jagdfeld Giving Foundation for charitable purposes. This certainly makes it appear as if the CEO's stock sales are well intentioned."
"Shareholders need to be comfortable that the operating performance and value of Office Depot will be significantly improved either as a stand-alone company if the deal is not consummated or as a merged company if the deal ultimately closes."
"Booms and busts in stock prices are often greatest in speculative mining and technology plays that tantalize investors with optimistic revenue and profit outlooks, yet often come from unproven claims and companies with a history of failure."
"Notably, Sonoran increased its funding capacity to $1.4B in Q3 – just as Ally cut its bulk financing capacity (excluding its financing of Sonoran of $350M) from $1.5B to $1.25B, and cut its early termination option from 180 days to 90 days."