"Apollo’s obligation to vote with HGV Board recommendations in a contested election, amongst other items, serves to entrench the Board and management. A contested election is not a “routine” matter."
Callouts & quotes from 26,677+ activist slides
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"The FDA-reported numbers, which consolidate responders and non-responders, show something even stranger, in that they do not reflect the numbers given in either of the previously-consulted sources."
"With the capital spending behind them, starting in 2023, depreciation will exceed capital spending, leading to even higher Free Cash Flow per share. So, it may be at 4.6x cash flow at $4.50 copper."
"Assuming the average store real estate costs $26mm, of which $13mm is allocated to the land and $13mm to the building, we believe store level return on investment would increase from 23.0% to 39.8%"
"The FTC settlement announced today, coming after a two-year investigation also concluded that Herbalife is not a pyramid scheme – a conclusion that obviously vindicates our research and conviction."
"The retail sale of Herbalife product is not profitable or is so insufficiently profitable that any retail sales tend only to mitigate the costs to participate in the Herbalife business opportunity."
"Contrary to the astonishing SENZA study data showing nearly twice the efficacy of traditional low-frequency stimulation, high frequency was quickly proven to be the exact opposite: a phony premise."
"The brand appears in the top ten search results for only 31 skincare-related keywords—five times less than its direct competitor Cetaphil, and well behind other competitors like Cerave and Eucerin."
"There is already competition for real time touring. In December 2023, Zillow filed a lawsuit against two MLSs alleging anticompetitive behavior with their real time touring called Aligned Showings."
"Shares have underperformed peers for more than a decade. Despite this clear market signal, Phillips has ignored the need for change and continually praises the benefits of its diversified portfolio"
"It didn't take long for Phillips 66 leadership to dig in its heels, defending their structure and doubling down on their current strategy. Phillips 66 stock's brief outperformance quickly reversed."
"Elliott urges you to vote FOR our highly qualified board nominees with decades of experience in refining, midstream operations and corporate governance, and FOR the Annual Election Policy Proposal."
"Additional Collateral Shares means the class B ordinary shares in GSX Techedu Inc. (GSX) owned by the Company which are required from time to time to be subject to the Security created by the Deed."
"The chief of a liver transplant program, who stated he knows Ghobrial well and appears to be in communication, indicated the relationship with TransMedics is improper and may be seen as a kickback."
"UCSF, a high-volume user who told us they intend to shut down most TransMedics usage in early 2025, clued into the game its surgeons were playing across all three programs - heart, lung, and liver."
"One stated his margin per case drops by more than 90%, from $100-120K to $10K with the device; the other stated “you are eating up a very, very substantial amount of the margin, no doubt about it.”"
"The Board and Mr. Shaw rushed into a bad deal that gets Norfolk Southern a short-term PR win while CPKC and CSX, the Company's closest peers, strengthen their partnership and competitive offerings."
"From 2009 to 2011, AOL's revenue declined nearly twice as fast as total operating expenses, causing EBITDA and free cash flow to decline by a staggering $700 million and $575 million, respectively."
"Even at AOL's target revenue model of selling 80% of ad slots to local advertisers near rate card pricing, we estimate that Patch would still lose approximately $20 million to $60 million per year."
"Despite its high growth potential and IRRs in these two plays, and its cash generating core MS Lime position, SandRidge trades at a deep discount to its Peers and its own PV-10 proved reserve base."
"Highly skeptical of the phase 3 trial and especially the “unusual” withdrawal study that was the basis of FDA approval, stating the data was unreliable; that he didn’t see a change in his patients."
"The case narrative is murky and suggests the initial report via the company and/or physician’s office may have tried to downplay or cover-up the seriousness of the event and deflect responsibility."
"From its high of $82 in January 2014, Herbalife’s stock price declined 52% in 2014 due to, among other things, regulatory investigations, public scrutiny, deterioration of the business and earnings"
"The FTC settlement announced today, coming after a two-year investigation also concluded that Herbalife is not a pyramid scheme – a conclusion that obviously vindicates our research and conviction."
"I have been a ‘fix’ it’ man in the aerospace industry for more than 30 years. One consistent thing I have observed is that the regional workers really want to see their plant’s performance improve."
"While the previous purchase price will represent a 70% overpayment, we acknowledge that improvements have been made to the property and graciously allocate a 35% discount to both good and bad case."
"According to our calculations, the rate of signed franchisees in their first year that have failed to successfully get to their second year has been increasing since the IPO, eclipsing 67% in 2021."
"We do not believe the FTC will deliver a “slap on the wrist” in light of the enormous harm Herbalife inflicts on its victims, which will continue if it is not forced to stop its pyramidal practices"
"This is especially significant, considering GSX alleges that they were able to achieve such exponential growth at low costs due to precisely their presence and strategic focus on WeChat promotions."
"Lasertec was desperate to offload its ACTIS EUV inventory, offering up to ~75% discounts on the A150, as well as other inducements and concessions that acknowledged uptime and reliability problems."
"TSMC will not consider the A300 or A150 for production; "Lasertec X8 ULTRA and X9 ULTRA are the DUV light source but they are inspecting the EUV mask...for the throughput...[EUV] is not necessary.""
"The preponderance of water in the workshops shows that ONP’s customers (to the extent they exist) are not in the market for good product; rather, their focus is on finding the lowest cost producer."
"That pattern makes clear that Sunrun's excuse that the Subscriber / EIA delta, which is presently almost five quarters of Sunrun Subscriber additions, is not explained by the delay to receive PTO."
"It should be an additional red flag that the company is dodging a discussion of the discrepancies in its export revenue – particularly on the back of a nonsensical excuse related U.S. import data."
"Notice that the Fifth Manhattan as controlled by Pivotal is just a 20 minute drive from the other Fifth Manhattan. What are the chances of two businesses with such a unique name so close together?"
"In light of our observations about aggressive and potentially misleading financial presentation, investors should not be comforted that the Board ranks itself lowest on "Financial Sophistication"."
"Dovigi's current biography was modified to omit his ties to Lower East Capital Partners (Andy DeFrancesco / Romeo DiBattista / Frank Mersch), which would have linked him to NGTV and other parties."
"We believe WTRG trades at a rich multiple that makes little sense in relation to our evidence of financial reporting issues, poor governance, and its acquisition growth strategy facing challenges."
"A search for Generac Clean Energy Services brings back a Sunnova ad, but it’s pitching Tesla Powerwall and not Generac. In addition, Sunnova’s website still favors placement of Tesla over Generac."
"A recent undercover investigation in Michigan in April 2022 highlighted upset customers of Powerhome Solar and profiled salesman they alleged were overpromising the benefits of solar installation."
"Sales/ft² is still 25% below 2005 peak levels six years later. We believe sales/ft² could increase materially by 2015 and still be meaningfully below inflation-adjusted peak levels reached in 2005"
"Who are the “non-Ally parties” behind Sonoran who seem willing to pay a premium for subprime loans? And why is management so reluctant to share this information despite questioning from investors?"
"Under the RTC Plan, Crown Castle’s fiber will achieve positive cumulative EBITDA – Capex by 2024, finally achieving Crown Castle’s stated intention that fiber would contribute to dividend capacity"
"APD’s share price increased by 66% (including dividends) since inception of our initial investment in May 2013, and 59% from our average cost basis prior to the position being made public, to date"
"In doing all this, Muddy Waters, which by the way, liquidated its shares on the day of the attack to a large extent contrary to the usual conventions, clearly crossed ethical and legal boundaries."
"Even taking management’s presumed average of 1.5 vets per clinic as given, we estimate that PetIQ wellness centers will be unprofitable at maturity under more reasonable store traffic assumptions."
"We find it extremely curious that management could be so off in its estimates for VIP sales. How could management have such little visibility into a stable, diversified, steadily-growing business?"
"All of these factors will serve to (i) improve performance, (ii) increase Darden's market valuation, (iii) solidify Darden's investment grade rating, and (iv) support and enhance Darden's dividend"
"Valued separately, we believe BEF Foods would realize a higher value than Bob Evans Restaurants, based upon the double-digit EBITDA multiples afforded to certain pure-play packaged food companies."
"The Company may be stuck between a rock and hard place as they may need to show customers they can operate and produce defect-free products at a greater scale before customers fully commit to buy."
"Muddy Waters, LLC hereby offers to engage, at our own expense, Plante & Moran PLLC, which is one of the largest accounting and consulting firms in the United States, to evaluate the investigation."
"In a hypothetical year where BREIT generates a target return of 12.0%, we estimate an investor would pay an “all-in” fee ratio, including both management fees plus performance fees, of 2.7% of NAV"
"One mistake Acutus made early on in its commercialization efforts was to take a shotgun approach and get its system hardware installed in as many high-volume electrophysiology centers as possible."
"While Acutus's sales efforts hit a wall earlier this year, we believe that the problem was temporary with disproportionate effects given the early stage of the company's commercialization efforts."
"PowerSchool’s largest smartphone app, PowerSchool Mobile, has almost 34K reviews and has been downloaded over 5 million times on the Google Play store, carrying a mediocre 2.3-star average rating."
"The consistent zero to de minimis value of work-in-progress inventory, compared to material amounts of finished goods and raw materials, also indicates that the demand for DNMR's products is weak."
"Marathon should evaluate whether a tax-free separation of the Company into three separate standalone businesses (Speedway, RefiningCo, and MidstreamCo) best serves shareholders over the long term."
"All of these factors will serve to (i) improve performance, (ii) increase Darden’s market valuation, (iii) solidify Darden’s investment grade rating, and (iv) support and enhance Darden’s dividend"
"And CONSOL can afford to be patient. The company owns much of this land outright, so unlike many of its peers it doesn’t pay royalties and it doesn’t need to drill in order to maintain its rights."
"Spruce Point believes that the writing is on the wall: Align is increasingly facing powerful competitive pressure and is reaching to keep the growth story alive, all while insiders exit the stock."