Contrarian Corpus
activist full deck follow up
2016-07-20 · 48 pages

Herbalife HLF

N 4 Narrative
V 3 Visual
C 3 Craft
Original source ↗

The three reasons

  1. 1

    FTC complaint confirms Herbalife operates as a pyramid scheme

  2. 2

    Injunctive relief forces a top-to-bottom restructuring that will collapse the pyramid

  3. 3

    EPS impact could reach $2.74 — far beyond the '22% of business' spin

Primary demands

  • Recognize that the FTC settlement's injunctive relief mandates a top-to-bottom restructuring of Herbalife's U.S. business
  • Acknowledge that compensation must be tied to verifiable 'Profitable Retail Sales' (with 80% threshold) and qualification purchases are prohibited
  • Reject Herbalife's and Icahn's spin that the settlement vindicates the business model
  • Expect follow-on enforcement by the SEC and by foreign regulators (China, Mexico, EU) using the FTC template

KPIs cited

U.S. share of net sales (Q1 2016)
22% of net sales
LTM U.S. net sales
$879 million
Contribution margin (U.S.)
~43% (net sales less COGS and royalty overrides)
Maximum potential EBIT exposure
$200M-$375M assuming no SG&A reduction
Illustrative EPS impact
$1.46 to $2.74 per share
Distributor-base annual turnover
Nearly 50% of U.S. distributor base quits in any given year
Share of volume bought by Sales Leaders
Over 75% of U.S. product volume
China share of 2015 organic growth
85% of organic growth, 19% of revenue
Profitable Retail Sales threshold
80% of U.S. sales must be verifiable Profitable Retail Sales to preserve current compensation

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Notable slides (9)

Notes

Filename dates the deck '2015-08' but the cover, content, and filing references (FTC Complaint filed 7/15/2016; HLF 8-K 7/15/2016) all indicate a 2016-07-20 presentation — the filename appears mislabeled. Title: 'No Longer Business as Usual — An Overview of the FTC's Complaint and Injunctive Relief.' Rhetorical structure is classic Ackman: receipts-wall of prior claims (p.5) → regulator-as-vindicator framing (FTC complaint quoted throughout) → villain gallery (HLF CEO Michael Johnson + Carl Icahn, both quoted verbatim then rebutted) → 'Spin Machine' section explicitly naming and refuting the opposing narrative → pro forma EPS table showing the '22%' defense is arithmetically wrong → call to action via FTC official quote ('as soon as the judge enters the order, we will be all over the company'). Page 9 share-price chart with intraday annotations of the narrative war on 7/15 is a notable rhetorical artifact. Pages 12 and 24 are placeholder slides ('Video Clip' and section divider). Campaign phase is follow_up — this is at least the 8th Pershing Square deck on Herbalife, following Who Wants to be a Millionaire (Dec 2012), The Big Lie (Jul 2014), Stealing the American Dream (Jan 2015), and others listed on p.4. Pershing Square held a short position that ultimately failed; campaign outcome later = lost (Pershing Square exited short in 2018 at a loss), but marking outcome as unknown per extraction-time convention.