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Callouts & quotes from 166+ activist slides

Every emphasised callout and every pulled quote, extracted slide-by-slide. Search by keyword, filter by slide type or by source.

Showing 1–60 of 166 matching "estimate"
quote precedent table

""Despite Juniper's strong fundamental performance this year that has driven the Street's EPS estimates higher versus a year ago, Juniper's stock (up 10% YTD) has underperformed relative to the S&P 500 Index (up 26%) in 2013. As such, we discussed the opportunity for an accelerated stock repurchase program with Juniper. ... We believe a $3 billion stock repurchase program could be 15-20% accretive to EPS" — Cantor Fitzgerald (12/11/13); "With respect to uses of cash, is there an argument for giving a committed level of cash return to shareholders out of free cash flow, given the healthy cash balance you have, given that it feels like cash flow, as a trend, should be rising going forward?" — Credit Suisse, CS Tech Conference (12/4/13); "Over the past three years, free cash flow generation at Juniper has averaged over $550 million per year. Further, the company has a relatively strong balance sheet with $2.8 billion of net cash at the end of the June quarter or 26% of the current market cap. ... we believe Juniper could and should institute a more formal capital return strategy" — Credit Suisse (9/18/13); "We believe there is scope for increased cash distribution" — Credit Suisse (9/18/13); "Healthy cash flow, no dividend. A quarterly dividend of $0.08/share would be very reasonable (potential yield 1.6%), but nothing's planned as yet" — RBC (8/12/13); "Juniper is a member of a club that most investors would like to see it resign from: Out of the 35 largest Hardware & Equip companies globally, JNPR is one of only four that is not expected to pay a dividend over the NTM. We believe it is time for JNPR to quit this club. ... we think a dividend would be viewed as a much-needed sign of mgmt's longer-term confidence. ... The knock-on positive effect of paying a dividend is bringing a whole new class of shareholders into the ownership base" — Citi (6/7/13); "We think it is time that Juniper quits the non-dividend payers and joins the overwhelming majority of global peers that directly return cash to shareholders" — Citi (6/7/13); "Risks to our Sell rating include a stronger carrier spending environment, improved competitive positioning, or a more aggressive capital allocation strategy, including the introduction of a dividend or a large buyback" — Goldman Sachs (4/24/13); "What would make us more positive? More aggressive capital allocation and/or activist shareholder involvement. Juniper's strong balance sheet ... and cash flow generation (estimated 7% FCF yield in CY13) make it a strong candidate for a significant buy-back or initiation of a dividend" — Goldman Sachs (3/19/13); "Juniper's share repurchases are typically used to offset stock option dilution resulting from the company's employee stock plans rather than being opportunistic buybacks based on price" — Goldman Sachs (6/13/12)"

Juniper Networks · JNPR Elliott Management · p. 9
quote demand list

""longer works because FD is now a detriment to the combined entity's valuation, 3) management seems unwilling to acknowledge the asset is destroying value, so 4) while the only hope is activism at this point - given management's ongoing hope that FD can rebound - the potential for activism seems low...." — Barclays – August 30, 2018; "Finally, we have also begun to field questions from investors about management's ability to successfully turnaround Family Dollar and whether DLTR would consider other strategic options...we are growing concerned that such a heavy focus of time, capital, and opex is being spent on Family Dollar with little to no fundamental improvement and that it may be better spent on the core Dollar Tree segment." — Goldman Sachs – August 30, 2018; "The market's interest in sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) and a potential break-up clearly indicates that the wheels have come off the Family Dollar bull thesis. This turnaround has stalled much too early and the core business, while producing good top-line, is experiencing margin pressure...Family Dollar a Clear Disappointment: Three years after closing on this turnaround project, comps are weak, the productivity gap to DG is as large as ever, and margins are back-tracking after initial progress. We estimate the value destruction of this deal at $7 billion...We were not fans of this transaction from the start, and it's now clear that DLTR would have been much better off today if they had not done this deal." — Wells Fargo – July 11, 2018; "While very low likelihood, in our view, DLTR could go down the path of multiple price points at Dollar Tree or simply raising the single price point. This could be done with or without the divestiture of Family Dollar stores. While, on paper, we understand the attractiveness of such a move (better comps and profit dollar growth, temporarily) we don't see the current Board or management team as amenable." — Credit Suisse – June 12, 2018; "Family Dollar's performance has disappointed investors – We have been disappointed/frustrated with Family Dollar's progression.... A 10% premium to the market for Dollar Tree implies investors are essentially getting Family Dollar for FREE...In this case, investors have essentially attributed ZERO value to Family Dollar's 8,000 stores, $10 billion of sales and $512mmE of EBIT." — RBC – June 8, 2018; "The Dollar Tree concept has been highly successful, but there remains significant opportunity to unlock value by expanding price points and we see three reasons this catalyst could arrive sooner than expected...Lastly, we believe the moment of truth is here for Family Dollar, and failure to drive a more meaningful comp improvement could leave management searching for another source of growth." — Wells Fargo – May 18, 2018"

Dollar Tree, Inc. · DLTR Starboard Value · p. 10
quote ceo quote

""The large variability in capex versus original guidance (just set six months ago) demonstrates some lack of capital discipline within the company." — Citigroup (July 25, 2012); "On the upstream side, we question whether the company has the bandwidth to operate in over 20 countries... We do not believe a company of Hess's size will get credit in the market for a shotgun approach to investing across the world." — Citigroup (July 20, 2012); "The key issue for HES in our mind is capital intensity and the inability of management in recent years to live within the limits of its cash flows. Furthermore, given the lack of growth in oil and gas production over the last 5 years, there is a case to be made that the company should return more cash back to shareholders instead of attempting to grow at all." — Citigroup (July 20, 2012); "We are skeptical that Hess's current global growth strategy will yield superior returns or growth, as its organization appears to be spread thin and we think it is unlikely that Hess can have a competitive advantage in all the areas it is pursuing." — Goldman Sachs (June 11, 2012); "We believe Hess should consider further reducing its exploration program beyond what has already been announced. It is not clear to us given the levels of exploration spending versus cash flows that a mid-sized oil company can successfully pursue a global exploration strategy as Hess has attempted... The company's high-risk/high-potential exploration and acreage strategy since 2009 is thus far not yielding favorable results." — Goldman Sachs (June 11, 2012); "The 7% pullback in the stock was severe, and in our view, is indicative of a loss of investor confidence in HES's execution capabilities, following a string of production misses and a lack of notable exploration success, in addition to a growing deficit between capex and cash flow. Entering 1Q'12, HES had missed its production guidance for four of the preceding 5 quarters, meaning execution was at a premium." — Simmons (April 26, 2012); "Although we think the company's underlying asset value is worth significantly higher than our near-term price target, we now believe the shares will likely continue to struggle throughout this year and will trade substantially below our estimate of its fair asset value due to the lack of visible catalysts as well increased investor skepticism over management's execution record..." — Barclays (April 26, 2012)"

Hess Corporation · HES Elliott Management · p. 78
quote ceo quote

""To summarize, the key growth assets underperform, expectations are lowered, and a key investor fear – Hess's propensity to outspend cash flow – is stoked by an early upward revision to the 2012 budget." — Deutsche Bank (April 25, 2012); "Flowing through from the high capex and low growth, the company has the lowest yield and lowest dividend growth combination amongst major oils." — Deutsche Bank (July 27, 2011); "The company has continued to be a net issuer of equity...at a time when most of the other majors have been buying stock back... and has produced low return on capital employed for most of the present decade." — Bernstein (October 22, 2009); "The company's refining and marketing assets remain emphatically not for sale, despite the fact that redeploying downstream invested capital...to the much higher returning upstream would make solid business sense." — JP Morgan (September 17, 2009); "Hindsight: We can't believe you're back to more hedging." — Deutsche Bank (September 29, 2008); "Notwithstanding the romance of Leon Hess's development of the company from one oil delivery truck into a multi-billion dollar enterprise, by the early 2000's the company's reputation with investors was one of a struggling oil essentially run as if it were private." — Deutsche Bank (August 7, 2007); "Historic mistrust, with certain major potential shareholders reluctant to invest based on the issues faced in the past with a distinctly mixed record of shareholder value creation to say the least. Ultimately, John Hess is still in charge, and that provides a major link to the past. Hess has historically shown poor performance on operational metrics..." — Deutsche Bank (August 6, 2007); "The change in 2008 estimated EPS is due to our belief in the industry-wide cost pressures being sustained into next year and the company's inability to manage them quite as successfully as do the Majors." — Bank of America (April 26, 2007); "Continued exploration losses are value destructive." — Deutsche Bank (October 25, 2006); "It is important to highlight that the highest paid companies are also the best performers, with the arguable exception of Hess. He is a dynastic executive left in a business that resonates with family fortunes..." — Deutsche Bank (August 24, 2006)."

Hess Corporation · HES Elliott Management · p. 79
quote villain critique

"We reviewed your firm's response and concluded that it is not adequate. Your response states that your firm's process about when to escalate a CAPA to an HHE [health hazard evaluation] was not clear. As such, CAPA procedural updates were made, and training was performed. Specifically, you updated your CAPA to include the statement, "The issue will be assessed... [in accordance with the Health Hazard Evaluation Procedure], to determine if the criteria for an HHE has been met, and whether field action is required." Your firm also conducted an HHE for the Activation Time Mismatch error, as required by your CAPA procedures. In addition, your firm conducted several other HHEs. It is important that the HHE be performed in accordance with your firm's Risk Management SOP (00010) because the outcome of the HHE is used to determine some of your firm's corrective and/or preventative actions. However, based on FDA's own calculations, these HHEs do not appear to be conducted in accordance with your Risk Management SOP (SOP0010). For example, when conducting HHE-[redacted], it appears your firm failed to properly calculate the probability of occurrence of the potential safety issue. Your miscalculation underestimated the likelihood of someone being injured. According to your updated CAPA procedure, the difference in the occurrence rating for HHE-[redacted] would have required an update to your risk documentation and the HHE shows that this was not selected. Further, when conducting HHE-[redacted], your firm failed to apply the Health Risk Table in your Risk Management SOP (SOP0010). This miscalculation is significant because this HHE procedure is used to assess whether or not you will initiate field action. — FDA Warning Letter Dated 5/25/23 (CMS 643474)"

iRhythm Technologies, Inc. · IRTC Spruce Point Capital · p. 34
quote other

""At the time of the initial deal announcement, our estimated fair value was around ¥20,000 per share. Over the last six months fair value has increased and we believe it could be upwards of ¥25,000 per share [...] How they arrived at the new valuation level is still unclear, especially as the wider market looks to have a significantly higher fair value estimate [...]" — Nicola Takada Wood, AVI, January 16, 2026; "Toyota is trying to acquire Toyota Industries on the cheap [...]" — Hugh Sloane, Sloane Robinson Investment Management, January 15, 2026; "I think the business environment has actually improved, the share prices of your competitors have risen, the tariff environment has improved, so I would have thought the value of the underlying business would also have gone up since 3 Jun. [...] The value of the cross-shareholdings has objectively risen by 5,300 per share, I don't think we need external valuations for that." — Christopher Davis, Mondrian Investment Partners, January 14, 2026; "The minimum acceptance condition will be hard to reach and as such an increase in the offer terms is likely. The uplift in subsidiary share buyback prices provides a benchmark for the increase to the tender offer price which would imply ¥21,000/share." — United First Partners, January 20, 2026; "This higher offer is almost worse than the original given that Toyota Industries' group shareholdings are worth ¥5,300 per share more now than they were in June [...]" — Stephen Codrington, Codrington Japan, January 14, 2026; "My strong sense from talking to indignant TICO shareholders [...] is that the 15% uplift has not changed their intentions and that in their eyes the ¥18,800 bid remains woefully inadequate." — CLSA (John Seagrim), January 15, 2026"

Toyota Industries Corporation · 6201 Elliott Management · p. 19
quote villain critique

""Investors in PFE have been battered twice in the last 2 weeks - the first came with danuglipron's failure (oral GLP1),the second with the new guidance. No doubt there was an element of capitulation... In other words, despite a year of major underperformance, it's hard to say PFE's a "buy." Some credibility has been lost, and the near-term catalyst path is not a strong one." — Wolfe, December 14, 2023; "Given the high number of questions we have received on EPS and margin dynamics and the implications for 2025 results, we do not see today's update as a clearing event. Today's update essentially should provide a floor on COVID estimates and EPS, in our view. However, there remains a significant amount of uncertainty on what is driving 2024 margins & EPS so low (i.e. whether this is due to depressed COVID guidance or there is an issue with the core business margins, or a mix of both). And based on our conversations, we expect that investors will have a hard time stepping into the story until they gain further clarity." — JP Morgan, December 13, 2023; "But we don't have much conviction in the outlook, making it tough to pound the table even from these levels... Level Of Confidence In Management - Our confidence is not the highest for several reasons. PFE provided guidance on many parameters but in retrospect much of it is proving to have been too optimistic, is no longer supported, and resulted in two reductions in guidance in 2023. We were not fans of the Seagen acquisition from the start, given that each of the key assets has associated questions, making the outlook less than clear, particularly given the price paid." — TD Cowen, January 4, 2024"

Pfizer Inc. · PFE Starboard Value · p. 60
quote villain critique

""Investors in PFE have been battered twice in the last 2 weeks - the first came with danuglipron's failure (oral GLP1),the second with the new guidance. No doubt there was an element of capitulation... In other words, despite a year of major underperformance, it's hard to say PFE's a "buy." Some credibility has been lost, and the near-term catalyst path is not a strong one." — Wolfe, December 14, 2023; "Given the high number of questions we have received on EPS and margin dynamics and the implications for 2025 results, we do not see today's update as a clearing event. Today's update essentially should provide a floor on COVID estimates and EPS, in our view. However, there remains a significant amount of uncertainty on what is driving 2024 margins & EPS so low (i.e. whether this is due to depressed COVID guidance or there is an issue with the core business margins, or a mix of both). And based on our conversations, we expect that investors will have a hard time stepping into the story until they gain further clarity." — JP Morgan, December 13, 2023; "But we don't have much conviction in the outlook, making it tough to pound the table even from these levels... Level Of Confidence In Management - Our confidence is not the highest for several reasons. PFE provided guidance on many parameters but in retrospect much of it is proving to have been too optimistic, is no longer supported, and resulted in two reductions in guidance in 2023. We were not fans of the Seagen acquisition from the start, given that each of the key assets has associated questions, making the outlook less than clear, particularly given the price paid." — TD Cowen, January 4, 2024"

Pfizer Inc. · PFE Starboard Value · p. 60
quote ceo quote

"“Yeah. So I mean you know before I get into that part, I mean, our customer demand has been good so far this year, we're off to a good start. Very pleased with the first quarter and also pleased with you know our increased guidance to the full year growth number. As we kind of look towards the second half of the year, we expect market conditions to generally remain favorable. But I think there's maybe two points to mention. One is comparisons. You know we get into some much more difficult comparisons especially in a multi-year stack basis, I mean if you start to think about multi-year stacks Q2, Q3 they get a little bit more difficult and then even just a one year stack you know the fourth quarter of last year we grew organically by 8%, that's going to be a more difficult comparison for us. So it's -- it has a lot more to do with the comparisons in our mind is in terms of maybe how you're looking at the sequencing of growth. I think Q1 also benefited a bit from the timing of Easter and maybe an easier comparison to last year which particularly affected maybe our European results and then maybe the second comment is that in terms of this year we have a little bit of a headwind in terms of our food retailing business that we called out on our call. If you exclude the estimated impact of food retailing this year, our organic growth would be about 6%.” — CFO Vadala, UBS Conference, May 21, 2019"

Mettler-Toledo International, Inc. · MTD Spruce Point Capital · p. 116
quote villain critique

""The estimate of net realizable value of inventory is impacted by assumptions regarding general semiconductor market conditions, manufacturing schedules, technology changes, new product introductions and possible alternative uses, and require management to use significant judgment that may include uncertain elements....The principal considerations for our determination that performing procedures relating to the valuation of product inventory is a critical audit matter are (i) the significant judgment by management when developing the estimated obsolescence used for determining the net realizable value of product inventory and (ii) a high degree of auditor judgment, subjectivity, and effort in performing procedures and evaluating management's assumption related to the future demand for product inventory." — PriceWaterhouse Coopers (KLA 10K Aug 2023); "Inventory – Valuation [...] Auditing management’s estimates for excess and obsolete inventory involved subjective auditor judgment because management’s assessment of whether a write down is required and the measurement of any excess of cost over net realizable value is judgmental and considers a number of qualitative factors that are affected by market and economic conditions outside the Company’s control." — Ernst& Young (Lam Research 10K Aug 2023)"

Lasertec Corporation · 6920 Scorpion Capital · p. 87
quote ceo quote

""In talking about cap rates -- I mentioned this last quarter, but I think it really is worthwhile saying -- and that is if you look back on the 40 years that we've been doing this and kind of follow cap rates, from 2005 to 2008, we were buying kind of in the 8.4% to 8.7% cap rate range, and in those years bought about $1.5 billion worth of property. And I'd probably estimate that we were 75 to 100 basis points in cap rate above where the one-off market was, which was really a function of buying in bulk and you get a better price and a better cap rate." "From 2003 to 2004, the caps were around 9.5, and if you go back to when we went public in '94 and take it to 2003, I went back and looked, and the cap rates from during that period were always between 10 and 11. And then going back and looking at transactions going all the way back before '94, cap rates were pretty much always up 11% or so." "So I really think that kind of the 7 and 8 caps that you saw at retail and even some of the 9 caps on the institutional transaction, like a lot of assets in many different areas, were a function of the abundant and cheap financing that was out there, and it shouldn't be too surprising to see cap rates moving up again." -- Tom Lewis, Realty Income, CEO, Q2 2009 Conference Call"

Realty Income Corporation · O Pershing Square · p. 28
quote villain critique

""Although we think the company's underlying asset value is worth significantly higher than our near-term price target, we now believe the shares will likely continue to struggle throughout this year and will trade substantially below our estimate of its fair asset value due to the lack of visible catalysts as well increased investor skepticism over management's execution record..." — Barclays (April 26, 2012); "The 7% pullback in the stock was severe, and in our view, is indicative of a loss of investor confidence in HES's execution capabilities, following a string of production misses and a lack of notable exploration success, in addition to a growing deficit between capex and cash flow. Entering 1Q'12, HES had missed its production guidance for four of the preceding 5 quarters, meaning execution was at a premium." — Simmons (April 26, 2012); "We think the market will largely adopt a wait and see approach and not give any free passes to management until clear path towards their cash flow targets and execution capability is evidenced...From a valuation perspective, we think the stock is relatively cheap as a result of the company's less-than-stellar historical performance record and perceived execution risk." — Barclays (July 26, 2012)"

Hess Corporation · HES Elliott Management · p. 36
quote ceo quote

""We are repositioning our Verifi process control technology business. Market adoption has been below our expectations, and the business is not producing the returns we want. As a result, we have decided to operate Verifi as a more targeted niche offering, and have reduced our investment in growing the business." — Hudson La Force, CFO, W.R. Grace (7/23/14); "Verify is a new marketplace...We have a head start in this market. It's a relatively small business today but growing at very nice mid double-digit rates and we're investing in this business in terms of both its stickiness and its ability to drive performance with the Ready Mix customers" — Greg Poling, Fmr CEO, GCP (5/17/16); "Our capital investments could be slightly higher in 2018 than our target of 5% of sales due to investments required for our new VERIFI contracts." — Dean Freeman, Fmr CFO (2/27/18); "With an estimated addressable market of approximately $1 billion, VERIFI is a key source of growth for GCP and remains a top investment priority." — Narasimhan Srinivasan, VP Strategy & Corp Dev, GCP (8/7/18); "We've committed to having sales generated through the VERIFI program of $50 million to $75 million by the end of 2021." — Randall Dearth, CEO, GCP (2/26/20)"

GCP Applied Technologies · GCP Starboard Value · p. 100
quote ceo quote

"“...So, the leadership team met without me. And they came up with 50% to 70% of the $1.2 billion. I would -- and I would tell you that's average performance. And this is not an average team. In the time-honored tradition of under promising and over delivering, we set ourselves up well today is my view. I would take the over on 70% to 90%. You think about the $1.2 billion, a couple of hundred of capital savings.” — Phillips 66's then-Chairman & CEO Greg Garland, November 2019 PSX Investor Day. “...Despite the cost-cutting initiative, we estimate that since 2019, refining & SGA costs (ex turnarounds and energy) have increased from $5/bbl to $6.5/bbl. Absolute costs are up 12%, or $500MM, more than large cap peers.” — T.D. Cowen, November 7, 2022. “There is nothing that destroys a management's team credibility faster than setting targets, missing them and attempting to avoid accountability or obfuscate the true outcome. This is the quickest way that I lose conviction in a management team's ability to deliver long-term value. I find it quite remarkable that the Board has not played a stronger role in holding Phillips 66 management accountable.” — Shareholder Nominee: Stacy Nieuwoudt."

Phillips 66 · PSX Elliott Management · p. 49
quote ceo quote

""...So, the leadership team met without me. And they came up with 50% to 70% of the $1.2 billion. I would -- and I would tell you that's average performance. And this is not an average team. In the time-honored tradition of under promising and over delivering, we set ourselves up well today is my view. I would take the over on 70% to 90%. You think about the $1.2 billion, a couple of hundred of capital savings." — Phillips 66's then-Chairman & CEO Greg Garland, November 2019 PSX Investor Day. "...Despite the cost-cutting initiative, we estimate that since 2019, refining & SGA costs (ex turnarounds and energy) have increased from $5/bbl to $6.5/bbl. Absolute costs are up 12%, or 500M M, more than large cap peers." — T.D. Cowen, November 7, 2022. "There is nothing that destroys a management's team credibility faster than setting targets, missing them and attempting to avoid accountability or obfuscate the true outcome. This is the quickest way that I lose conviction in a management team's ability to deliver long-term value. I find it quite remarkable that the Board has not played a stronger role in holding Phillips 66 management accountable." — Shareholder Nominee: Stacy Nieuwoudt"

Phillips 66 · PSX Elliott Management · p. 50
quote villain critique

""I realized there was a large gap between the products we were developing, the products we were marketing and the products we were selling." — Former Lightspeed Employee #2; "So SEOshop, when it moved to the North American market for initial testing, it became very clear that the needs of North American retailers are very different than European retailers in the ecommerce space. There was a lot of work to integrate and adapt features to make sure it was ready for the North American merchants that they have. To be fully transparent, it was a rocky start." — Former Lightspeed Employee #2; "Regarding acquisitions, there were ones that once under the hood, I would say there was a lot more work than was estimated. In terms of actual functionality and meeting the needs of the market, there were expectations that were poorly set, meaning the delivery time to bring back to market was much longer and more difficult. They are very particular about what products are going to be brought to market. There have been ones that were completely stalled weeks before a launch because they were just not up to par with what the experience needed to be." — Former Lightspeed Employee #2"

Lightspeed Commerce, Inc. · LSPD Spruce Point Capital · p. 64
quote other

""The purchase price for this acquisition totaled $92,678. The remaining amount consists of a contingent consideration of $3,004 which is contingent upon meeting certain performance metrics. Since the initial purchase price allocation was estimated, contingent consideration has been reduced by $4,000 and trade and other payables have increased by $650 and those adjustments have been reflected as an adjustment of $3,350 to goodwill." — Nuvei Q3'21 Financials, p.9; "For the nine months ended September 30, 2021, other expenses increased by $8.5 million compared to the nine months ended September 30, 2020 primarily due to an increase in information technology and D&O insurance expenses in 2021 as well as a $2.1 million favorable adjustment to contingent consideration in the comparative period." — Nuvei Q3'21 MD&A, p.21; "change in deferred purchase consideration for previously acquired businesses, which was nil for the three months and the nine months ended September 30, 2021 (nil for the three months ended September 30, 2020 and a gain of $1.3 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2020" — Nuvei Q3'21 MD&A, p.9"

Nuvei Corp · NVEI Spruce Point Capital · p. 63
quote villain critique

""BOL has likely been misunderstood because the complexity of its structure makes it infeasible to use Excel to estimate the percentage of circular ownership. We engaged consultants that created a program to do the calculations necessary. The main issue with understanding BOL's structure is that it has circles within circles within circles." — Muddy Waters, February 17, 2015; "Analysts call Bolloré SA one of the most complicated business structures they've seen, designed to protect family control. Children of Vincent Bolloré run key businesses." — Barron's, January 13, 2018; "Counselled by who would become his mentor, Antoine Bernheim, Bollore created a series of holding companies. And invested in a plethora of industrial activities. 'It is absurd in the context of economic efficiency, but intelligent in the context of dynastic continuity,' explains Bolloré." — Géraldine Meignan, L'Express, June 1, 2010; "There is a sense that Vivendi is now being run in a less transparent way, with one investor making decisions based on information which we don't have." — Claudio Aspesi, Bernstein Research, March 8, 2015"

Telecom Italia · TIT.MI Elliott Management · p. 33
quote ceo quote

"With the Flex model, Premier Agent partners are provided with validated leads at no initial cost and pay a performance advertising fee only when a real estate transaction is closed with one of the leads, generally within two years. With this pricing model, the transaction price represents variable consideration, as the amount to which we expect to be entitled varies based on the number of validated leads that convert into real estate transactions and the value of those transactions. We estimate variable consideration and record revenue as performance obligations, or validated leads, are transferred. We do not believe that a significant reversal in the amount of cumulative revenue recognized will occur once the uncertainty related to the number of transactions closed is subsequently resolved. We record a contract asset for our estimate of the consideration to which we will be entitled when the right to the consideration is conditional. When the right to consideration becomes unconditional, upon the close of a real estate transaction, we reclassify amounts to accounts receivable. — Zillow Group 2023 10-K"

Zillow Group, Inc. · Z Spruce Point Capital · p. 79
quote villain critique

""Taft is one of 40 patients interviewed by the AP who said they had problems with spinal-cord stimulators...Twenty-eight of them said their spinal cord stimulators not only failed to alleviate pain but left them worse off than before their surgeries...More than half the patients interviewed by the AP said they felt pressured to get stimulators because they feared their doctors would cut off their pain medications" — Associated Press investigation. "Spinal cord stimulators are some of the most problematic implants, according to various insurers, with a recent study showing a high removal rate...[W]e don't see a lot of success with them at all...Spinal cord stimulators are the most frequent failed medical device for workers compensation claimants at Portland...The devices 'more often fail than succeed,' and he estimates that they cause complications in MEMIC comp patients 90% of the time..." — Insurance trade article. "[W]eak evidence exists that SCS may provide temporary improvement of pain in some patients, but there is no evidence of mid or long term pain improvement." — Washington state study."

Nevro Corp. · NVRO Scorpion Capital · p. 28
quote ceo quote

""GCP will focus largely on the non-residential construction market, with a smaller business in packaging materials as ballast. Longer-term, GCP should be able to lean on its market leading position and new product pipeline to out-pace end market growth, support margins, and grow EPS at an estimated 10% CAGR through the end of the decade." — Jefferies, February 2016; "We view this US non-residential construction exposure (particularly exposure to cement and concrete demand) as a positive, since cement volumes are still 25% below levels 10 years ago and 3% below the 20-year average prior to the 2008/09 recession." — Goldman Sachs, February 2016; "Despite some indications that non-residential construction spending growth in the U.S. could be entering a mature phase of the cycle, there are some spots of steady growth in significant markets for GCP, such as the multifamily market and infrastructure spending with the passage of the Federal Aid Highway Program. These markets may help to boost overall growth above rates for total construction, in our opinion." — KeyBanc Capital Markets, May 2016"

GCP Applied Technologies · GCP Starboard Value · p. 23
quote villain critique

"We’re at the final stages of construction, which we expect to be completed by the end of January, we are adamantly working on gearing up for our Grand Opening. At this point, we have spent over $2M of equity on construction and over $1.3M in dark rent. As Landlords ourselves, [We] understand that the likelihood a tenant blows out after paying over a year’s worth of dark rent is extremely high. The eviction process, leasing efforts, new TI package, and lag time until new rent is collected is an arduous and expensive process, so we understand that it’s in no one’s best interest that we default. As a result, we’d like to respectfully request your help in bridging that gap before us in the form of rent relief and additional TI. We’ve estimated that we will require $400k to complete construction by January and ask that CTO help alleviate the burden by increasing our TI package. We also request that past-due rent for Nov. and Dec. be abated, and that future rent be deferred until the venture is operating, which we anticipate will occur in February. — Email from Food Hall investors to CTO"

CTO Realty Growth, Inc. · CTO Wolfpack Research · p. 7
quote ceo quote

""If you're trying to grow the Premier Agent business, there are only really three levers to pull. There's one at the very top of the funnel trying to drive more traffic, more people looking at these listings that is very, very hard to move. It's a mature category, Zillow has category leadership, that's going to grow pretty slowly if at all." — Former Senior Executive. "About half the business goes to MBP where the agents are bidding against each other for the leads on the zip code basis. And about half the business goes towards Flex. Half the leads go to Flex. By the way, I think it's about half. Nobody really knows the sell side research kind of estimates. And the auction is already super efficient. So it's hard to increase take rate on the auction because it is been whatever, five or more years and the kind of auction dynamics has sort of settled where they are. And then trying to increase the take rate by increasing the referral fee on Flex is the only way to drive growth at the bottom of the funnel." — Former Senior Executive."

Zillow Group, Inc. · Z Spruce Point Capital · p. 21
quote demand list

""The purchase of Parex allows Sika to (a) increase its share in a highly fragmented market, (b) broaden its footprint in Asia (we estimate that Asia revenues will increase from 17% to 20% once fully integrated), and (c) further increase operating leverage." — Morgan Stanley (February 2019); "The acquisition allows Sika to gain access to Parex's distribution channels and production capacity in mortars. It will also allow Parex to gain access to 70 new markets in which Parex does not currently operate. For Sika, the cross-selling opportunity is particularly strong in China where Parex has established a strong commercial presence and brand recognition." — Bernstein Research (May 2019); "We also see the higher interest in DIY as beneficial for building material companies with exposure to such smaller-scale projects. The clearest beneficiary is likely to be Sika's newly-acquired Parex business (catering to smaller-scale projects and customers, with products largely sold through distribution channels)." — Jefferies (April 2020)"

GCP Applied Technologies · GCP Starboard Value · p. 70
quote villain critique

"The Alcohol and Tobacco Tax Trade Bureau ("TTB") performed a federal excise tax audit of the Company's subsidiaries, MGPI of Indiana, LLC and MGPI Processing, Inc., for the periods January 1, 2012 through July 31, 2015 and January 1, 2013 through July 31, 2015, respectively. The Company is in the process of addressing the preliminary findings of the TTB audit regarding clerical errors and support for storage losses. The Company is unable to determine the probability that additional excise tax and penalties will be owed and cannot reasonably estimate the amount thereof. However, the Company believes it is probable that a penalty may be imposed by the TTB as a result of certain TTB audit findings but it is unable to reasonably estimate the amount thereof. Management expects that the aggregate liabilities, if any, arising from such legal and regulatory proceedings, including the TTB audit, would have a material adverse effect on the consolidated financial position or results of operations of the Company. — 10-K, Mar 10, 2016"

MGP Ingredients, Inc. · MGPI Spruce Point Capital · p. 47
quote other

"“We see these estimates (Marcato’s) as ambitious but plausible in the context of international opportunities, potential in other categories helped by improved segmentation (to begin Spring '18), and revenue recapture from closed stores… …Cost savings initiatives over this period are more aggressive than those of management but, in our view, a fair directional assessment of opportunity. We are in directional agreement with Marcato on opportunities for financial engineering given the durable cash flow of the business (which could be helped by net working capital benefits from retail closures). While cash balances are principally overseas, the company could both borrow against these cash balances and use foreign cash to support foreign working capital needs. A revolving line of credit or the combination of revolver and term-loan could both accommodate working capital demands and be used to reduce the share count with accretive results.” — Stifel 10/19/17"

quote villain critique

""If the client purchases an ISN product called the Repair Estimate Report from ISN, that's a Porch product. And at that point, Porch gets the whole inspection report because they need the report so that they can put together an estimate" — Home Inspector. "It's really not that many. I'd say perhaps 1 out of 20... I don't think that they're that accurate. So I'm actually not that thrilled with the product." — Home Inspector. "I think that if we go to the setup of the services and how I can enter services, pricing, how that ends up looking on the order form when people get to my website, it's real confusing. But my business isn't confusing." — Home Inspector. "I guess my parting gripe would be that, that the way that it was set up just barrages my customers with SMS text and e-mail. And I had to go in and pull and just shut a lot of that down because you know what, it's spamming and people don't want to be spammed." — Home Inspector."

Porch Group Inc · PRCH Spruce Point Capital · p. 35
quote villain critique

""You need a bigger team and at least a couple of years of them working together really well to pull together the level of detail that is going to be sufficient...you’re never going to have full amount of detail, but the question is do you have enough to have the application stand on its legs and be considered fully [operational] as opposed to be rejected for being incomplete? I don’t think that’s reasonable to hit that [2027] target." — Former Oklo employee; "Oklo is in that camp which underestimates what has to be done to bring this to fruition...I think they are unconsciously incompetent on what you need to get thru the NRC." — Former Westinghouse Electric Managing Director, 38-year nuclear industry veteran; "They’re clueless – they’re operating like a small, tech company and they’re not even close to being in the playing field of what they have to do." — Project Manager, GE Vernova, 35 years of nuclear industry expertise."

Oklo Inc. · OKLO Kerrisdale Capital · p. 8
quote villain critique

""We are skeptical that TXN can achieve their revenue targets given its growth rate of mid-single digits. Given elevated capex and depreciation, we believe TI’s margins will remain under pressure through 2026 unless capex is cut." — Citi; "Texas Instruments (TXN): We wish we could all have a 15-year investment horizon...downgrading to Underperform" — AB; "We are initiating coverage of TXN with an Underweight (UW) rating and $150 price tgt. Our rating reflects a concern TXN can’t achieve rev tgts & related utilization; i.e., 300mm capacity expansion plans intended to reach $30B FY26 rev. 19% CAGR." — Wells Fargo; "We still believe investing in mature node capacity is the right strategic decision long-term. That said, with a 20% CAGR off 2024 Street estimates needed to reach 2030's $45B capacity target, we think the magnitude of the development is difficult for investors to underwrite, even with subsidies." — Cowen"

Texas Instruments · TXN Elliott Management · p. 7
quote transition

"We continue to see some risk that Tesla could materially cut the price of its locally made (MIC) Model Y from 488k RMB ($73k) to something in the mid- to high-300k range ($56-58k). This could potentially hurt near-term sentiment and slow NIO’s order book momentum considering it would be a direct competitor to NIO’s EC6 and ES6. — Deutsche Bank. Recent estimates from securities firm Tianfeng Securities are pointing at something quite remarkable for Tesla’s ongoing ramp in China. As noted by the firm in a recently-released research report, Tesla’s strategy of passing its cost savings to customers could result in the Made-in-China Model Y starting at a very reasonable price of CN¥275,000 (about $41,000). — Tianfeng Securities. Another wave of price cuts for premium electric vehicles in China may be on the horizon, stirring up what could be an intense rivalry — Bloomberg Intelligence."

NIO Inc. · NIO Citron Research · p. 2
quote other

"The estimate of net realizable value of inventory is impacted by assumptions regarding general semiconductor market conditions, manufacturing schedules, technology changes, new product introductions and possible alternative uses, and require management to use significant judgment that may include uncertain elements....The principal considerations for our determination that performing procedures relating to the valuation of product inventory is a critical audit matter are (i) the significant judgment by management when developing the estimated obsolescence used for determining the net realizable value of product inventory and (ii) a high degree of auditor judgment, subjectivity, and effort in performing procedures and evaluating management's assumption related to the future demand for product inventory. — PwC (KLA 10K Audit Report)"

Lasertec Corporation · 6920 Scorpion Capital · p. 87
quote villain critique

"The [press] releases made several false representations, including that a COVID-19 screening test that Parallax purported to be developing would be “available soon,” and that the company had personal protective equipment (“PPE”) and ventilators and other medical equipment for “immediate sale.” In fact, when the company issued the releases, Parallax was insolvent and did not have the capital to develop a test. Parallax’s own internal projections also estimated that, even if the company had the funds, it would take it more than a year to develop a test. Moreover, Parallax did not possess the PPE and medical equipment that it offered for sale, and had neither the money to purchase the equipment nor the Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”) registrations needed to import and distribute the equipment — Excerpt from SEC complaint"

Datavault AI Inc. · DVLT Wolfpack Research · p. 3
quote ceo quote

""And when we dug through some of that, our average customer income now, we estimate is between $100,000 and $125,000 versus the U.S. median in the $60,000 range. We age up. We're probably 35 to 64 years old. They've lived in that house for 11 to 15 years" — Fmr. CFO (Now President) Lang, Q1 2020 Conf Call, May 1, 2020. "Our median household income is $96,000. Now you've heard us talked in our earnings release that we have -- we're using ranges. So our highest penetrating range was $100,000 to $125,000. We've hired a new external company to help us better understand our customer. They've given us a lot more insight and a lot more precise data. So we're now switching to use median household income, and that's $96,000, and that will be the benchmark going forward." — Fmr. President Lisa Laube, Investor Day, March 16, 2022."

Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. · FND Spruce Point Capital · p. 80
quote kpi overview

"On a portion of the fixed price-completion contracts, revenue is recognized in accordance with Topic 605 using the percentage-of-completion method based on the ratio of total costs incurred to date compared to estimated total costs to complete the contract. Estimates of costs to complete include material, direct labor, overhead, and allowable indirect expenses for government contracts. These cost estimates are reviewed and, if necessary, revised on a contract-by-contract basis. If, as a result of this review, management determines that a loss on a contract is probable, then the full amount of estimated loss is charged to operations in the period. As of December 25, 2016 and December 27, 2015, accrued expenses included the accrual for losses on contracts of $17.7 million and $3.5 million, respectively. — 10-K, F-8"

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions · KTOS Spruce Point Capital · p. 19
quote villain critique

"“We continue to be focused on current trends, adding inspirational and user-generated content and expanding into new categories by recently extending our outdoor category with pool options.” — Lang Q1’23 May 4, 2023; “The discretionary components of our business, which are the most affected by general economic conditions, have been challenged by cautious consumer spending on big ticket items like swimming pools and outdoor living projects resulting in sales of building materials declining 11% for the year compared to the same period in 2023.” — Pool Corp June 25, 2024; “We now believe that new pool units could be down 15% to 20% in 2024, and remodeling activity for 2024 may be down as much as 15% compared to our previous estimate of flat to down 10% compared to 2023.” — Pool Corp June 25, 2024"

Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. · FND Spruce Point Capital · p. 59
quote villain critique

"We have historically realized income, rather than expense, from these plans. We generated aggregate income from our U.S. and U.K. plans of $44.4 million in 2017, $27.5 million in 2016 and $8.2 million in 2015. The plans have been generating income due to their funded status and since they do not allow for new plan participants or additional benefit accruals. The effects of the defined benefit pension plans on our operating results consist primarily of the net effect of the interest cost on plan obligations for the U.S. Plans and the U.K. Plan, and the expected return on plan assets. We estimate that the defined benefit pension plans will contribute annual pre-tax income in 2018 of $32.4 million for the U.S. Plans and $41.4 million for the U.K. Plan. — XPO 10-K"

XPO Logistics, Inc. · XPO Spruce Point Capital · p. 26
quote villain critique

"In accordance with our accounting practices, we review the estimated useful lives of our property and equipment on an ongoing basis. In the third quarter of fiscal 2025, management determined that the estimated useful lives of our test and infrastructure equipment and assets supporting our Evergreen//One offerings should be revised from 4 years to a range of 5 to 7 years. The change in estimated useful lives was recognized on a prospective basis effective at the beginning of the third quarter of fiscal 2025. The effect of this change in estimate resulted in an aggregate reduction to depreciation expense and corresponding increase in net income of $20.1 million, or $0.06 per basic and diluted share, during fiscal 2025. — Pure Storage FY2025 10-K"

Pure Storage, Inc. · PSTG Kerrisdale Capital · p. 29
quote ceo quote

"“While GSE revenues and earnings are significantly higher now vs pre-GFC levels driven by much higher guarantee fees and meaningfully larger guarantee portfolios, required minimum capital levels have increased far more meaningfully, resulting in a sharp decline in run-rate ROEs. We believe that the only realistic way to solve for this is to remove the stability buffer and take the minimum capital level back to 2.5%. The other alternative is to increase guarantee fees, but we estimate that the increases would have to be in the 20-25 bp range (from the current 65 bp level), which is likely to be politically unacceptable since it would increase mortgage rates by an equivalent amount.” — Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (emphasis added), 1/5/2025"

quote other

""While GSE revenues and earnings are significantly higher now vs pre-GFC levels driven by much higher guarantee fees and meaningfully larger guarantee portfolios, required minimum capital levels have increased far more meaningfully, resulting in a sharp decline in run-rate ROEs. We believe that the only realistic way to solve for this is to remove the stability buffer and take the minimum capital level back to 2.5%. The other alternative is to increase guarantee fees, but we estimate that the increases would have to be in the 20-25 bp range (from the current 65 bp level), which is likely to be politically unacceptable since it would increase mortgage rates by an equivalent amount." — Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (emphasis added), 1/5/2025"

quote villain critique

""The principal considerations for our determination that performing procedures relating to the cooperative marketing program accruals is a critical audit matter are (i) there was significant judgment by management to estimate the cooperative marketing program accruals, which in turn led to a high degree of auditor judgment in performing procedures to evaluate the status of trade promotion activities within the cooperative marketing program accruals, and (ii) there was a high level of audit effort and subjectivity in performing procedures to evaluate the current and past trade promotion spending patterns and the status of trade promotion activities used to determine the cooperative marketing program accruals." — Company filings"

WD-40 Company · WDFC Spruce Point Capital · p. 36
quote ceo quote

"We believe MAKO has demonstrated excellent market acceptance of their partial knee application. However, our analysis suggest there's a bigger opportunity in total hips and total knees to leverage Stryker's reconstructive implants. We look forward to sharing more regarding our plans for robotic-assisted surgery later in 2014. — IR Owen, Q4 2013. In terms of the integration, I think the most challenging part, and I think it's fair to say, we underestimated the complexity of it, but feel very comfortable with the trajectory we are on. — IR Owen, Q3 2013. Yeah, I would tell you, when we look at the performance in the quarter, I think it's just simply too soon. We are not seeing a competitive impact. — IR Owen, Q2 2019."

Stryker Corp. · SYK Spruce Point Capital · p. 122
quote ceo quote

"Turning to Slide 9, as we bring Vocera into Stryker, we will be a category leader in the fast growing digital care coordination and communication segment. The global digital care coordination and communication segment is in its infancy and is estimated to be approaching $1 billion today. However, we believe that the addressable opportunity is significantly larger and will further expand over time as hospitals prioritize investment in more modern communication and workflow solutions. The annual rate for the category is in the mid-teens and is accretive to the total Stryker growth rate making it an attractive market adjacency to continue to drive our growth profile. — Andy Pierce, Stryker Group President on M&A Call"

Stryker Corp. · SYK Spruce Point Capital · p. 101
quote villain critique

"“It must be appreciated however that pre-operative ejaculatory dysfunction is common in men undergoing TURP being estimated around 30–35%.” — DeLay, et al. “...I spent so much time counseling these men that ejaculation is stupid, it's not orgasm...I say your wife doesn't want that slop anywhere near her...if you're not sexually active, who cares what we do.” — Major Hospital Urologist, Nov 2024. “Most of these patients are either already on Flomax, which itself can cause retrograde ejaculation, or are beyond their childbearing years...the average 70-year-old is not going to care about [ejaculatory dysfunction] as long as they still have good libido and good erections.” — Community Hospital Urologist, Nov 2024."

PROCEPT BioRobotics Corporation · PRCT Spruce Point Capital · p. 33
quote ceo quote

"Integration, compensation and transaction costs are substantial. The costs to implement the Transaction are substantial and include estimated integration costs of US$150 million, approximately US$65 million of compensation costs and approximately US$125 million of transaction costs(excluding GST). Both integration and transaction cash costs are expected to be broadly offset by savings in capital expenditure and working capital over a similar time period (refer to Sections 10.3.2 and 10.3.3 of this report). A significant portion of transaction costs (US$45 million) will be incurred by Amcor (stand-alone) regardless of whether the Transaction is implemented. — Amcor Scheme Booklet, March 13, 2019"

Amcor plc · AMCR Spruce Point Capital · p. 56
quote other

"We are on board with [Third Point's] assessment of CPB's current situation. As evidenced by our earnings estimates, which are well below consensus, we are not constructive on Campbell's fundamentals... Campbell probably has more challenges/weaknesses in its immediate future than any other company we cover. We also agree with [Third Point] that the board of directors “exacerbated” Campbell's problems by apparently not having a succession plan in place. Given these problems, plus the fact that the Campbell shares are +28% since bottoming in early June (group median +5%), we concur with [Third Point] that a sale – if achievable – is the best way to create value for shareholders. — J.P. Morgan"

Campbell Soup Company · CPB Third Point · p. 29
quote villain critique

""The fraudulent or otherwise illegal, unauthorized, or improper act or process of an individual, including a caregiver or fiduciary, that uses the resources of an older individual for monetary or personal benefit, profit, or gain, or that results in depriving an older individual of rightful access to, or use of, benefits, resources, belongings, or assets." — Older Americans Act of 2006; "Elder financial abuse is big business. It’s estimated that older adults lose more than $36 billion every year to scams, fraud and exploitation. It’s even more alarming that almost half of that money is lost due to tactics that – while deceptive in nature – are technically legal." — Medicare website"

Inogen · INGN Citron Research · p. 3
quote ceo quote

""We will anticipate that this reconciliation will take another six months of mining in the main mineral domain to be able to clearly reconcile our mineral resource to grade control and our reserve estimate to plan feeds." — July 2016 (AKG, 2Q16 Earnings Call Transcript, 2060720). "We started to open up and now are getting into that main sandstones on to mineralization and the first month that we were mining that reconciliation was awful..." — November 2016. "Due to the complexity in planning a schedule for 11 different pits and the detailed design process, we now anticipate publishing the expansion feasibility study in Q2 2017." — February 2017 (AKG, Press Release, 2017-02-24)."

Asanko Gold Inc. · AKG Muddy Waters · p. 41
quote ceo quote

"The combination of Itiviti's front office trading solutions with Broadridge's leading post-trade back-office capabilities will allow us to serve our clients' entire trade life cycle from origination to settlement, adding more than $5 billion to Broadridge's total addressable market, bringing our capital markets' TAM to more than $20 billion and Broadridge's TAM to more than $50 billion — Broadridge CEO. We estimate that Itiviti holds around 10% of the global market for third-party trading software applications and connectivity systems, which is worth over $2 billion (nearly $6 billion including financial institutions' in-house solutions). — Moody's Credit Analyst"

Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. · BR Spruce Point Capital · p. 53
quote ceo quote

"“The company's trying to deliver on all three: the fastest, the best, and the cheapest. And the cheapest is almost a foregone conclusion because if you know the competitive nature, the price matching, price is very predatory in that market.” — Ex-Twist executive; “Nobody pays list price. You go to IDT, Thermo, GENEWIZ—and of the competitors in that space, very, very few people actually pay the list price that you see on the website. But for a ballpark estimate, I would conservatively, if I were in your shoes, would say that people were paying between 50% and 75% of list price that you find on the website of various companies.” — IDT ex-regional sales manager"

Twist Bioscience · TWST Scorpion Capital · p. 63
quote villain critique

""No, the leagues are never paying Genius, at least for the Genius Sports module when they were providing digitization, social media, integration, websites, mobile apps." — Former Genius Sports Manager; "From the Genius Sports part, that seems high to me because a lot of the deals, they are either paying money or its contra. $16 million seems quite high." — Former Genius Sports Manager; "It is unlikely if any of these sports pay Genius real cash, or at least significant amounts. Even the NBA deal is VIK, as is the English Premier League whereby Genius pays an estimated GPB 20m a year, on which they are supposedly making a loss." — Betting Industry Expert"

Genius Sports Limited · GENI Spruce Point Capital · p. 47
quote villain critique

"The [national research] labs have a terrible track record of successfully executing on building things, and I know INL is trying to demonstrate value by picking a couple vendors, getting something built, and proving that they are good at working with industry and getting something useful accomplished. They have a history of announcing that they will have a reactor built by such-and-such date, and then never actually building anything at all (NGNP / VHTR, Marvel). None of this changes the fact that Oklo's cost estimate for the initial core of fuel for their reactor design is too low by a factor of 5x or more. — Executive at an SMR competitor"

Oklo Inc. · OKLO Kerrisdale Capital · p. 14
quote sop buildup

"Still, the company believes there may be some opportunity to experiment with other price points if done right... Further, while it's Oops $2 and $3 price point experiment did not work, Dollar Tree believes this was more of a function of poor implementation as opposed to it being a flawed concept. — UBS, December 14, 2018; We are tired of hearing the same trite fixes (remodels, operational procedures, inventory balancing) and think investors should be as well...We are simply going to advocate for activist involvement and will work on a list of specific actions with our best estimates around what can be done. — Bernstein – September 4, 2018"

Dollar Tree, Inc. · DLTR Starboard Value · p. 9
quote villain critique

"During fiscal 2022, we spent approximately $56 million to comply with existing environmental laws and regulations and improve plant efficiencies to reduce noise and air emissions and wastewater discharge, to update or remove underground storage tanks, to address contamination issues, and to improve wastewater treatment systems at a number of our facilities, and we spent less than $450,000 in costs associated with obligations related to closed facilities. For fiscal 2023, we estimate that similar types of expenditures will be incurred, representing approximately $64 million and less than $250,000. — Saputo Latest Disclosure"

Saputo Inc. · TSX:SAP Spruce Point Capital · p. 133
quote ceo quote

""Q4/2023 adjusted EBITDA increased 18% y/y to $525 million, in line with the FactSet consensus of $522 million and our $527 million estimate" and "Management continues to deliver impressive EBITDA margin improvement WSP's Q4/2023 adjusted EBITDA margin increased 150 bps y/y to 19.0%....." — Canaccord, 2/8/24; "Adj. EBITDA of $525 mm beat Stifel's $518 mm by 1.4% and FactSet consensus of $522 mm by 0.6%. Adj. EBITDA margin of 19.0% was very strong and came in higher than our forecast of 18.2% and the Street at 18.7%. EPS was $1.99, 4.2% higher than us at $1.91 and 3.8% higher than the Street at $1.91." — Stifel, 2/29/24"

WSP Global Inc. · WSP Spruce Point Capital · p. 41
quote ceo quote

"“Above average precipitation and temperatures in the fall led to a mild winter. This warmer weather will increase flying pests such as carpenter bees and other nuisance flies house and blow flies.” — Rollins PR. “I’ve been researching bee health for over 10 years... Some beekeepers who had been in business for decades shared that they lost 50% to 70% of their colonies over the winter of 2021-22.” — UC Davis Bee Researcher Oct 2022. “Over the entire year (1 April 2022 – 1 April 2023), beekeepers in the United States lost an estimated 48.2%... of their managed honey bee colonies.” — Survey of Bee Colonies June 2023."

Rollins Inc. · ROL Spruce Point Capital · p. 79
quote villain critique

"“The explant rate is also underestimated because the device would stop working and the patient doesn’t want it pulled out.” — High volume KOL; “You have to include another population of patients when you talk about explants, something which happens a lot. You ask patients how it’s going and they say "I don't use the stimulator." I ask why and they say, I just don't feel like it's working that well." There are people that aren't explants. They just leave it in, and they don't even use it but they don't want to explant. They don't want to go back to their doctor because he sold them on the idea.” — High volume KOL"

Nevro Corp. · NVRO Scorpion Capital · p. 93
quote ceo quote

""The Company's second quarter sales were adversely affected by holiday shifts on Easter and Fourth of July. The 2018 Easter sales week fell on the last week of the first quarter and the slow selling week afterwards fell in the second quarter this year. While comparatively last year, both holiday selling weeks fell in the second quarter. Additionally, the Fourth of July fell later in the week after the second quarter ended. Management estimates the incremental holiday sales impact was approximately $12.5 million and included it in the second quarter 2018 comparable store sales." — 2017 10-Q, p.9"

Weis Markets, Inc. · WMK Spruce Point Capital · p. 27
quote ceo quote

"We believe that total organic revenue is an important measure because it excludes the impact of the following items: foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations, acquisitions and divestitures, and fuel surcharges. Specifically, our total organic revenue reflects adjustments to (i) exclude revenue from our North American truckload unit, which was sold in October 2016, (ii) exclude the estimated revenue attributable to fuel, and (iii) apply a constant foreign exchange rate to both periods (based on average rates during the monthly periods). — XPO Proxy Statement, Annex A, filed April 18, 2018"

XPO Logistics, Inc. · XPO Spruce Point Capital · p. 32
quote ceo quote

""Closed sales represent an estimate of the expected annual recurring fee revenue for new client contracts that were signed by Broadridge in the current reporting period. Management uses Closed sales to measure the effectiveness of our sales and marketing programs, as an indicator of expected future revenues and as a performance metric in determining incentive compensation...Larger Closed sales can take up to 12 to 24 months or longer to convert to revenues, particularly for the services provided by our Global Technology and Operations segment." — 2019 Annual Report"

Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. · BR Spruce Point Capital · p. 45
quote villain critique

"Ending Q1 2011, there were 33 Patches that had above $2,000 per month in revenue. Ending Q4 2011, there were 401 Patches above $2,000 per month in revenue.... We arrived at our cost estimates for Patch of $160 million in 2011 based on the following statement by the Company's Chief Financial Officer at the AOL Investor Day on June 16, 2011: "... we're going to spend $160 million a year this year on Patch..." Further, in a research report published on May 10, 2012, Barclays estimated that Patch generated EBITDA losses of $151 million in 2011. — AOL CFO / Barclays"

AOL, Inc. · AOL Starboard Value · p. 82