Contrarian Corpus

48 documents showing 1–48

Muddy Waters 2026-03-17

SoFi Technologies, Inc. SOFI

SoFi's $1,054M reported 2025 EBITDA is ~90% inflated via manipulated charge-off rates, off-balance-sheet VIEs and subsidized seller-financed sales that feed CEO Noto's comp — real EBITDA is ~$103M.

N5 V3 C3
Kerrisdale Capital 2025-08-01

Aurora Innovation, Inc. AUR

Aurora's autonomous trucking vision is a dead end: tech can only enable hub-and-spoke freight, drayage kills the economics, and the real TAM is smaller than the company's $13bn market cap.

N4 V3 C2
Pershing Square 2025-02-18

Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. HHH

HHH stuck at ~40% NAV discount with no take-private bidder after 284 investors approached

N4 V3 C2
Pershing Square 2025-01-16

Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac (GSEs) FNMA / FMCC

Releasing GSEs from conservatorship could generate ~$300bn for taxpayers via Treasury warrants

N5 V4 C3
Muddy Waters 2024-11-20

e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. ELF

ELF's imports collapsed while inventory and revenue kept soaring; reconciling the two suggests $138-188mm of overstated sales and a likely fraud.

N5 V3 C3
Elliott Management 2024-06-10

Southwest Airlines LUV

Southwest lost 50%+ of market value in 3 years while peers thrived

N5 V4 C4
Elliott Management 2024-05-28

Texas Instruments TXN

TI's rigid $5bn/year capex ramp is building ~50% excess capacity and has collapsed FCF per share 75%; flex capex to demand and commit to $9.00+ per share by 2026.

N4 V3 C3
Ancora 2024-04-15

Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC

Norfolk Southern is the worst-performing Class I railroad under Alan Shaw; replacing the Board and installing UPS/CSX operators to run PSR closes the 780bps OR gap and unlocks $420 per share.

N5 V4 C4
Muddy Waters 2024-04-08

CPI Property Group CPIPG

CPIPG's 2023 results show undisclosed related-party transfers to controlling shareholder Vitek, aggressive fair-value inflation, and an unreconciled 92% equity collapse at GSG Berlin — management must answer on the call.

N4 V2 C2
Muddy Waters 2023-11-01

Sunrun RUN

Sunrun's Subscriber metric is fabricated — inflated ~20% above EIA filings — letting it overclaim ~$205M in IRS tax credits and prop up a fictitious valuation; Muddy Waters remains short.

N4 V2 C1
Ancora 2023-10-17

Forward Air Corporation FWRD

Forward Air's $3.2B Omni Logistics deal destroys shareholder value; block the deal, replace CEO Tom Schmitt and the Board, and shares rerate to $140-$145.

N4 V3 C3
Ancora 2023-02-08

Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers RBA

Back the amended RBA-IAA merger: $350-900M of synergies, a Starboard/Ancora-refreshed board, and Luxor's anti-deal case is flawed — RBA should re-rate from $62 to ~$130.

N4 V3 C3
Muddy Waters 2022-07-12

Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital HASI

HASI is a short: its GAAP and non-GAAP 'Distributable Earnings' are inflated by three non-cash accounting tricks and roundtripped SunStrong loans, masking a cash-losing, capital-raise-dependent business.

N4 V2 C1
Kerrisdale Capital 2021-12-01

Astra Space, Inc. ASTR

Astra is a SPAC-bubble rocket company with no revenue, an undersized non-reusable vehicle, and fantastical 300-launch-a-year forecasts; shares should tumble back to the ground.

N4 V3 C3
Muddy Waters 2020-11-18

Joyy Inc. YY

JOYY is a multibillion-dollar fraud: ~90% of YY Live and ~80% of Bigo revenue is fabricated via bots and gift roundtripping, and Baidu's pending $3.6bn acquisition is buying air.

N5 V2 C2
Muddy Waters 2020-11-11

MultiPlan Corp MPLN

MultiPlan is a financially-engineered SPAC corpse losing its biggest customer UHC to UHC's own competitor Naviguard; expect 35% revenue loss and 8x+ leverage by 2022.

N4 V2 C2
Muddy Waters 2020-06-02

eHealth, Inc. EHTH

EHTH books Medicare Advantage revenue today that takes nine to twenty years to collect, masking a cash-incinerating, high-churn business reminiscent of Enron-style accounting.

N4 V2 C2
Muddy Waters 2020-04-08

eHealth Inc. EHTH

eHealth books three years of Medicare Advantage commissions upfront while true churn has spiked to 47%; corrected, every MA enrollee loses $135-$402 — a cash-incinerating stock promotion.

N5 V2 C2
Muddy Waters 2019-08-07

Burford Capital Ltd. BUR LN

Burford is a poor litigation-finance business masquerading as a great one through Enron-like fair value accounting, four-case concentration, and a CEO-wife CFO — and is arguably insolvent.

N5 V2 C2
Muddy Waters 2019-02-25

Inogen INGN

INGN's growth narrative rests on an inflated $3-4B TAM that Medicare data contradicts; under a realistic 1.3M-user market, peak unit sales arrive this year or next.

N4 V1 C1
Citron Research 2019-02-15

Inogen INGN

Inogen's growth is built on a reseller network that lies to elderly customers about Medicare coverage to force cash sales — competition and oversight will collapse margins to a $46 stock.

N4 V2 C2
Muddy Waters 2018-07-02

TAL Education Group TAL

TAL inflated Firstleap's acquired deferred revenue by 90-175%, pumping $21-29M of fake profit through FY2017 via an above-the-line accounting lever obscured by an overlooked small acquisition.

N4 V2 C1
Muddy Waters 2018-06-13

TAL Education Group TAL

TAL is a real business with fake financials: two asset-parking transactions inflated FY2016-FY2018 pre-tax profits by $153M (28.4%) while Deloitte China was starved of audit hours.

N5 V2 C2
Greenlight Capital 2018-04-23

Assured Guaranty AGO

Assured Guaranty is a melting-ice-cube bond insurer aggressively returning capital it hasn't earned; Puerto Rico losses alone (2-4x reserves) will force a capital raise or strip the AA rating it needs to write new business.

N5 V2 C2
Muddy Waters 2018-02-08

IQE plc IQE

Muddy Waters is short IQE: the compound-semi maker inflated 2015/2016 net income by 58.5%/25.4% via transactions with its Cardiff University JV — an alter ego, not an arm's-length partner.

N4 V2 C2
Muddy Waters 2017-12-20

China Internet Nationwide Financial Services Inc. CIFS

CIFS is an old-style China reverse-merger fraud dressed up as a Reg A+ IPO; SAIC filings show 5x revenue overstatement, every disclosed borrower is a sham, and the equity is worthless.

N4 V2 C2
Oasis Management 2017-10-30

Alpine Electronics 6816

Alps Electric is buying out 40%-owned Alpine Electronics via a biased share-exchange at too low a price; minority holders should reject it and demand a tender offer near 2,400 yen.

N2 V1 C1
Muddy Waters 2017-05-31

Asanko Gold Inc. AKG

Muddy Waters is short AKG: flawed geology, a collapsing Nkran pit, and a 2018 liquidity crunch make the Ghana gold miner highly likely to end up a zero.

N4 V2 C2
Greenlight Capital 2017-05-08

Core Laboratories CLB

Core Lab trades at 35x 2018e P/E — double its oilfield-service peers — on a false secular-growth narrative; mid-cycle earnings imply $62 fair value and ~45% downside.

N5 V3 C3
Engaged Capital 2016-02-18

Outerwall Inc. OUTR

Outerwall's cash-rich Redbox/Coinstar business trades at a 3x EBITDA capital-allocation discount; halting buybacks for a large dividend and running a sale process unlocks 150%+ upside.

N4 V3 C3
Starboard Value 2015-08-10

Yahoo! Inc. YHOO

Yahoo's Core Business is collapsing because of $550M of self-inflicted cost bloat; cutting costs and replacing the Microsoft search deal can restore profitability without touching Alibaba.

N4 V2 C3
Third Point 2014-04-01

Sotheby's BID

Sotheby's Board has presided over a 42% EPS collapse despite global wealth tailwinds; electing Third Point's three nominees can restore owner perspective and more than double pro-forma EPS.

N4 V3 C3
Muddy Waters 2013-10-29

NQ Mobile NQ

NQ Mobile's Oct 25 rebuttal of Muddy Waters' fraud report contained ten provable lies — Yidatong is NQ, revenue and market share are fabricated; reiterating price target under $1.

N4 V2 C2
Muddy Waters 2013-10-24

NQ Mobile Inc. NQ

NQ Mobile is a 'China Fraud 2.0': 72%+ of China revenue is fictitious, real market share is 1.4% not 55%, and the $127.9M cash balance is likely forged — target price under $1.

N4 V2 C2
Starboard Value 2013-08-02

Office Depot, Inc. ODP

Office Depot's entrenched board has destroyed value for years; replace four incumbents with Starboard's retail-experienced nominees to lift operating margins from 0.9% to 7.3% — standalone or merged with OfficeMax.

N4 V3 C3
Glenview 2013-08-01

Health Management Associates HMA

HMA's incumbent board destroyed 25% of independent value before rushing a sale to Community Health Systems; Glenview's Fresh Alternative board protects the deal and recovers upside.

N4 V2 C2
Oasis Management 2013-06-11

Nintendo Co., Ltd. 7974

Nintendo's real competitor is now mobile; releasing five iOS/Android titles from its catalog would add ~73 billion Yen in annual EBITDA and unlock China's $9 billion gaming market.

N4 V2 C1
Pershing Square 2013-05-08

Procter & Gamble PG

P&G earns $4 EPS today but should earn $6 by FY2016 at 24% EBIT margin

N4 V3 C2
Starboard Value 2013-04-30

Tessera Technologies Inc. TSRA

Tessera has squandered $517M on the failing Digital Optics business while its core patent-licensing franchise shrinks; Starboard's six-director slate and IP-focused plan can unlock best-in-class 60-70% EBITDA margins.

N4 V3 C3
Greenlight Capital 2013-02-21

Apple Inc. AAPL

Apple's $137B idle cash depresses its P/E; distribute 'iPrefs' — tax-free perpetual preferred stock paying 4% — to unlock ~$150/share without spending a dollar of cash.

N5 V3 C3
Muddy Waters 2013-02-08

Olam International Ltd. OLAM

Olam's Q2 2013 results confirm Muddy Waters' Strong Sell thesis: debt is spiraling (9.5x EBITDA), cash is burning, and management's acquisitions and Gabon project reveal haphazard planning.

N3 V1 C1
Pershing Square 2012-12-20

Herbalife Ltd. HLF

Formula 1 is a $2bn 'brand nobody's heard of' — sales economics defy any genuine consumer demand

N5 V4 C4
Pershing Square 2012-12-20

Herbalife Ltd. HLF

Herbalife is a pyramid scheme: distributors profit by recruiting, not retail sales

N5 V4 C4
Muddy Waters 2011-11-21

Focus Media Holding Ltd. FMCN

Focus Media is the Olympus of China: it inflates its LCD screen count by 50%, systematically overpays for acquisitions it writes off, and enriches insiders at shareholders' expense.

N5 V2 C2
Greenlight Capital 2011-10-17

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters GMCR

GMCR's $9 EPS bull case ignores a smaller TAM, falling K-cup attachment rates, a September 2012 patent cliff, and accounting shenanigans at fulfillment agent MBlock — realistic EPS is ~$3.50.

N5 V2 C2
Pershing Square 2011-09-14

Hong Kong Monetary Authority / HKD-USD Peg

HKD peg forces Hong Kong to import ultra-loose U.S. monetary policy despite a vastly stronger economy

N5 V3 C3
Muddy Waters 2011-03-02

China MediaExpress Holdings CCME

CCME is a fraud: a recorded salesperson admits doubling the bus count for SEC filings, and Chairman Cheng's rebuttal cited fabricated license plates — fair value $3.54 vs $12.27.

N4 V2 C2
Muddy Waters 2011-02-03

China MediaExpress Holdings CCME

CCME is a pump-and-dump: reported revenue is overstated ~5x, its bus network is half the claimed size, and management is cashing out — fair value $5.28 vs $16.61.

N4 V2 C2