Contrarian Corpus
activist conference presentation follow up
2013-05-08 · 45 pages

Procter & Gamble PG

N 4 Narrative
V 3 Visual
C 2 Craft
Original source ↗

The three reasons

  1. 1

    P&G earns $4 EPS today but should earn $6 by FY2016 at 24% EBIT margin

  2. 2

    Organic growth of 3% lags every major peer (Unilever 7%, Colgate 6%) despite better category mix

  3. 3

    Stock at $78 is worth $125 in two years — a 26% compound annual return

Primary demands

  • Hold current CEO Bob McDonald accountable for sustained peer underperformance
  • Replace CEO with internal or external candidate if turnaround does not materialize in next 2-3 quarters
  • Raise cost-savings and COGS productivity targets above the February 2012 $10bn plan
  • Separate Chairman and CEO roles
  • Improve organizational design and execution discipline
  • Continue aggressive share repurchases

KPIs cited

Current EPS
~$4/share FY2013 vs. $6/share Pershing View by FY2016
EBIT margin
18.8% FY2012 vs. 24.0% Pershing View (matches Colgate)
Gross margin
49.6% FY2012 vs. 51.5% Pershing View; category-level analysis implies 52-54%
Core SG&A ratio (ex-advertising)
14.4% current vs. 11% Pershing View given scale advantage
Organic revenue growth
3% P&G vs. peer range 4-7% (Unilever 7%, Colgate 6%, L'Oreal 6%)
Annual COGS productivity
<3% P&G plan vs. 4% CPG peer average (Colgate 4.3%, Unilever 4.1%, Kraft 4.2%)
Emerging markets sales mix
40% — behind Unilever 55% and Colgate 50%
Revenue base
$84bn vs. peer benchmark $20bn — 4x scale advantage underutilized
P/E multiple
18.8x CY2013 vs. 21.1x peer average despite biggest cost opportunity
Target price
$125 = $6 EPS × 20x P/E + $5 dividends over two years

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Notable slides (8)

Notes

Ira Sohn Conference presentation titled 'A Rising Tide is a Good Gamble.' Follow-up, not initial thesis — Pershing Square's PG position became public in July 2012, and this May 2013 deck is a mid-campaign pressure update arguing the turnaround is lagging and setting a 2-3 quarter ultimatum for CEO Bob McDonald. Rhetoric leans analytical but is pointed: slide 33 lists 21 outside organizations McDonald belongs to (~50 days/year), and slides 23 & 28 weaponize former CEO A.G. Lafley's own past statements (52% gross margin target; 24% EBIT margin post-Gillette) to argue management has walked away from stated goals. Core SCQA structure: great business under-earning, management taking steps but not enough, $125 target = 60% upside. No sum-of-parts breakup; thesis is operational/margin-expansion with implicit management change. Visually functional PowerPoint, not Ackman's Canadian Pacific tier. Bob McDonald was in fact replaced by Lafley later in May 2013 — campaign effectively won on the accountability front.