Contrarian Corpus
activist full deck follow up
2017-01-26 · 95 pages

Pershing Square Holdings Portfolio (multi-position) PSH

After a -13.5% 2016 driven by Valeant, Pershing recaps a concentrated portfolio (Mondelez, Air Products, Restaurant Brands, Chipotle) where margin and turnaround catalysts should restore long-term outperformance versus the S&P.

Thesis

Pershing Square's 2016 annual update defends a brutal year — net returns of -13.5% versus +11.9% for the S&P 500, driven primarily by Valeant's 86% collapse — by reaffirming the underlying thesis of each portfolio position. Bill Ackman recaps the largest holdings (Mondelez, Air Products, Restaurant Brands, Howard Hughes, Chipotle, plus two undisclosed positions, Fannie/Freddie, Valeant, Platform Specialty, Nomad) and the Herbalife short, arguing each business has identifiable margin or operational catalysts. Centerpieces include Mondelez's path from ~15% to 17-18% EBIT margins (vs. 27.6% at Kraft Heinz peer benchmark), Chipotle's recovery from -36% same-store sales after E.coli, and the FTC's pyramid-scheme findings against Herbalife. The deck closes with organizational changes — LTIP introduction, COO retirement, new president — to reassure LPs about firm stability after two consecutive losing years.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    Valeant's -86% 2016 collapse drove fund -13.5%; underlying portfolio recovered +16% from March lows

  2. 2

    Mondelez EBIT margin 15.4% versus 27.6% Kraft Heinz peer leaves 600-700bps of fixable upside

  3. 3

    Chipotle SSS rebounded from -36% trough to +15% in Dec-16 alongside board refresh and CEO simplification

Primary demands

  • Hold concentrated long positions in Mondelez, Air Products, Restaurant Brands, Howard Hughes, Chipotle and two undisclosed names through margin-expansion catalysts
  • Maintain Herbalife short on the back of FTC pyramid-scheme findings and forced restructuring
  • Continue Valeant board engagement to execute deleveraging and asset sales under new CEO Joe Papa

KPIs cited

PSH 2016 net return
-13.5% vs S&P 500 +11.9%
Cumulative net return since inception (Jan 2004)
Pershing Square L.P. 503.1% vs S&P 500 163.4% through Dec-2016
Average monthly return
Pershing 1.3% vs S&P 0.7%; down-month -1.5% vs S&P -3.5%
2016 winners/losers attribution
Valeant -19.2%; Restaurant Brands +3.3%, Air Products/Versum +3.1%, Fannie Mae +3.1%
Total Strategy AUM
$10,982M at 12/31/2016, including PSH $4,517M
Mondelez EBIT margin
15.4% in 2016E vs Kraft Heinz 27.6%, Hershey 20.2% peer median
Mondelez margin glide path
11% (2013) to 15-16% (2016 guidance) to 17-18% (2018 target) plus Optimized
Chipotle monthly SSS recovery
Trough -36% Jan-16, -1% Nov-16, +15% Dec-16
Pershing CMG ownership
~10% economic stake; largest shareholder
Valeant share price decline
-86% in 2016; -93% from Pershing average cost since 2/9/2015 inception
FTC Herbalife consumer redress
$200M to ~350,000 victims announced 1/10/2017
Herbalife 2017 valuation multiple
~13x management's revised 2017 guidance midpoint; 14-16x pro forma
FNMA/FMCC share price
+66% / +73% from Pershing average cost since announcement
CP victory-lap return
+244% (3.44x) including dividends from announcement to 8/4/2016 exit

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns. Orange cells are present in this deck; neutral cells are not.

Composition what's on the 95 slides

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Notes

Fund-level annual update covering 10+ positions, not a single-target activist thesis — SCQA fields set null per guidance. Visual style is classic functional Pershing institutional template (blue/grey palette, Arial-style, sectional dividers as bare colored bars on otherwise-blank slides). Strong rhetorical work in the Mondelez peer-gap chart (p.21), CMG SSS recovery line (p.52), and the CP victory-lap timeline (p.86). Cover only credits the firm; author_name set to William Ackman based on firm convention (his voice throughout, org chart on p.92 confirms CEO/PM role) rather than an explicit signature. Stake percentages disclosed for individual positions (e.g. CMG ~10%, MDLZ ~16% of capital, Herbalife short ~-9%) but not a single deck-level stake; stake_disclosed_pct left null.